The chances of political change in Belarus are not further sanctions or gestures of cutting off society from contact with the world, but alternatively beginning channels of communication, exchange and regular interaction.
History shows that closing border crossings – not to be confused with the wall against illegal migrants – or limiting the movement of people and goods never led to the democratisation of the authoritarian state. Isolation strengthens power due to the fact that it deprives average people of the chance to compare their situation with conditions in another countries. That is why it is crucial to scope the Belarusian society through culture, trade, economy or local cooperation. They are soft instruments that work slower than sanctions, but they are much more effective in the long term. It is thanks to them that Belarusians can see an alternate to the Lukashenko system, see that normality and prosperity are possible.
In this context, it is peculiarly interesting to inform that the Belarusian military was to inform Polish military about the passage of drones. This signal can be read in respective ways. First, as a manifestation of a desire to control tension at the border and avoid unpredictable escalation. Secondly, as evidence that Minsk, despite his rhetorical loyalty to Moscow, is inactive trying to signal Warsaw any elements of pragmatism. Thirdly, it may besides be an component of the game – showing that Belarus is "helping" to guarantee security, and so expects greater political and economical restraint in return. 1 thing is certain: this event reminds us that channels of communication with Belarus be and should not be closed. This is what keeping contacts – both at the authoritative level and through social, cultural and economical exchanges – gives us the most chance to change the political situation in our east neighbour. alternatively of closing down the ground, let's rise people's horizons.
Leszek Miller
‘X’
