Olaf Scholz is simply a political living-dead. The head of the CDU Friedrich Merz, a financier with good contacts in the United States, may consider himself a ‘ Chancellor-elect’. Merz will make a strong, unchangeable government in Germany capable of major negotiations with Washington Trump. Meanwhile, in Poland Donald Tusk will rule...
Scholz Fall
On Wednesday, November 6, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz resigned Finance Minister Christian Lindner. This is the end of the government coalition in the West Germany, the alleged light signaling from the colors of the 3 formations – the reds of SPD Scholza, the Greens and the bile of the FDP Lindner liberals. For the next fewer weeks, there will be a number government behind Oder. In fact, it is hard to call it "government" at all, due to the fact that it will not rule. All parties refuse to cooperate with the SPD-Green coalition due to the fact that they want the quickest elections. Scholz announced that he would not apply for a vote of assurance until 15 January, which means that the elections will take place in March. another parties are dissatisfied with this, so they will effort to force the Chancellor to make faster decisions.
It's known that Scholz is simply a political surviving corpse. All those who want to settle with Germany something calculated in the long word than only the next fewer weeks must talk to Friedrie Merzez of the CDU. According to current polls, the chadecia can number on 34 percent of the vote, which means that it will definitely win the election and take power. On election day, it is likely that the CDU/CSU consequence will be even better, as Germany will have adequate of Scholz's protracted show of weakness and will be more willing to give support to the strongest formation, i.e. the chapedees, to stabilise cases in the country. A certain CDU/CSU triumph means that Friedriech Merz, an experienced financier with good contacts in the US, may already consider himself sui generis Chancellor-electa.
With whom will Merz form a coalition?
The CDU/CSU will not be able to regulation alone. Given the current polls, there is only a tiny chance that chadecia will make a preferred coalition government with liberal FDP. Christian Lindner's organization is presently balancing at the electoral threshold; if it enters the Bundestag at all, it is likely to introduce besides fewer deputies to supply adequate support for the CDU/CSU. In theory, the most interesting solution would be the CDU/CSU-AfD coalition. With a good consequence both sides could give even the majority of 2/3. Given the free marketplace and conservative views of both groups, this could let for genuine country repair. However, Chadecia for ideological reasons rejects cooperation with the alternate for Germany. He claims that AfD is simply a group that undermines democratic order. To a large extent, however, the problem for the CDU may not be ideology, but abroad policy. The alternate is reluctant to the United States and criticises, for example, the US's military presence in Germany. For the CDU, powerfully connected to Washington, this is simply a taboo subject.
A coalition with 1 of the smaller leftist groups, the SPD or the Greens, is more likely. The CDU/CSU will most likely be able to make a government with each of these formations. Friedrich Merz declares openness to talks with both parties, but the Bavarian CSU excludes the coalition with the Greens. Thus, it seems that the CDU/CSU-SPD government has a better chance of being formed, and thus the construction of the alleged "great coalition" – that is how the coalition of these formations is defined due to the fact that for decades they remained the main parties in Germany. Today, the SPD is so weak that the name "great coalition" would already be historical. On the another hand, the CDU-Greens coalition already operates on a local level, for example in the key arena of North Rhine-Westphalia. In Austria, too, there has been a coalition of chadeks with the Greens for years. This option is so besides possible in Germany; much depends on the circumstantial result of the elections and subsequent negotiations.
The strong government of Merza, and in Poland... Tusk
Anyway, in a fewer months, Friedrich Merz will be Chancellor. His government will be strong: 1 coalition partner, clearly weaker, and 1 that can be easy changed in the event of difficulties. This means that by 2029 – and so for the full word of Donald Trump – there will be a unchangeable government in Germany, rather free-marketed, with good contacts in the US.
For Poland this means only problems. Americans traditionally get along more with Berlin than with Warsaw, which is the consequence of the apparent difference in potentials. In Friedriech Merz's government, they will find a credible and serious partner. Meanwhile, in Poland there is simply a alternatively shaky coalition with the Prime Minister at the head, which Donald Trump repeatedly insulted. abroad policy is directed by a man who acted similarly, whose wife threw the worst invectors at the American president. The civilian Coalition itself is oriented towards Berlin. From Washington's perspective, then, there will be no serious policy in Poland – although Andrzej Duda could be regarded as such, his word of office is just ending. 1 could argue that all this doesn't matter, due to the fact that politics is about hard business, and Trump will work with anyone, even if it's Tusk and Sikorski. In the case of a self-centered man like the new-old president of the United States, however, this is an argument somewhat weaker, and too – politics is not a chess game, where on both sides there are AI machines. There are people in politics. Unfortunately, this does not look good in the current political strategy in Poland.
Paweł Chmielewski
