Lewicki: Do we have money?

For the government, but even more for citizens, having money to cover expenditure is simply a substance of paramount importance. It is known, quoted in the form of anecdote, the situation at the court of the Saxon King August III, who was to address his minister Brühl: Brühl, do we have the money? To which he invariably received the answer: Yes, Lord! specified an answer, combined with large skill in the area of money raising, was a warrant for this minister to stay in office.
In 2015, the erstwhile Minister of Finance in the PO government, Jacek Rostowski, announced that for the election promises of the opposition, "there is no money and there will be no money," which, however, did not turn out to be actual after that, due to the fact that the fresh government succeeded in fulfilling these promises, even reducing the budget deficit. At the time, it seemed that money was just and adequate for all fresh ideas of giving them away.
The voters got utilized to this, and the fresh coalition came to power in 2023 by making even more inflated promises of financial transfers and reducing liabilities.
This time, however, these promises proved unfulfilled, and the deficit of public finances began to emergence to the size of the budget that was dilapidating and threatening the anticipation of financing specified a immense deficit. This is the second time, during the Tusk government, this is the kind of budget crisis. This was previously the case in 2010, erstwhile an absolutely evidence deficit of 7.4% of GDP was recorded. At that time, the Tusk Government applied draconian measures to reduce the deficit: expanding VAT rates to 8/23%, raising the retirement age, budgeting the OFE funds, and even lowering the ceremony allowance. This resulted in a decline in the deficit over the following years, but also, although there were no mass protests against this kind of painful savings, the support for the rulers evaporated and they began to lose all subsequent elections. The fresh government created by the Law and Justice Office reversed the increase in retirement age and introduced 500+, fulfilling electoral promises.
The current situation begins to match the 1 from 2010, erstwhile a evidence deficit occurred. For 2025, the planned deficit is 6.6%, but the forecast is that the PKO BP report, its overrun and the actual deficit can scope 6.9%. Even this planned deficit of PLN 289 billion is immense and called, which is the truth, the largest in our history. Suffice to number that according to the current course, it equals over $79 billion. If we compare this with the debt from Game time, which in September 1980, erstwhile he lost his power, was $17.6 billion, which is now the equivalent of $67.8 billion, then it turns out that the one-year deficit of the Tusk government is greater than the full abroad debt of Game. After all, Gierek, utilizing this debt, has built quite a few production facilities for a decade, while the current deficit spreads mainly to current needs in 1 year.
In addition, erstwhile it comes to deficit levels, we are twice the EU's limit and for this reason we have been placed under the excessive deficit procedure. The requirements for gathering the recommendations of this procedure require Poland to reduce the deficit to 4.1% of GDP in 2026. Meanwhile, according to the draft budget, it is expected to scope 6.5% of GDP.
Moreover, in terms of overall debt, we are approaching the level set as the maximum permissible in the Constitution. These problems have already been noticed by global credit rating agencies, which have late changed Poland's credit rating position to negative. This was done by Fitch and Moody’s agency. This may mean that the next assessment of Poland's credit capacity will consequence in a decrease in the rating, and this, in turn, will consequence in a decrease in the rate of gold and an increase in the interest rate on Polish bonds in the financial markets and further problems of the budget with debt service. Experts give clear instructions on how to avoid major problems: “Tax increases or cuts. There is no 3rd way." But the rulers know well that tightening the belt, as it has been done since 2010, will yet lead to a fast failure of power by the current government, which is inactive little popular and support for it has fallen already below 30%.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation requires increased spending on arms, and the EU forces us to carry out the energy transition and the climate mark and introduce a migration pact. Under any circumstances, the burden of carrying out even 1 of these 4 large tasks would require large budgetary expenditure, and now this is to be implemented in a situation of gigantic budget deficit, which the Union wants to impose at the same time. The prospects are so dark and the government does not even seem to have an thought of how to cope. In addition, for the first time in 12 years, apart from the short-term period of covid, unemployment began to increase. The situation seems so bad that even the opposition does not seem to rush with actions aimed at taking over power, but only to wait until there is simply a complete collapse in finances and support for the rulers, which should give the opposition electoral success as a consequence of obtaining the constitutional majority. Under these conditions, you should not even ask if we have money, due to the fact that everyone knows that there is no money anyway, especially erstwhile it turns out that the funds from the KPO are, in large part, just a debt that increases our, and so huge, deficit.

Stanisław Lewicki