This celebrated message by Lenin, which was then repeated on many occasions by Józef Wissaryonovich Stalin, was and is simply a good lock for fast analysis of the political situation and prospects of many countries, including, above all, Russia.
The human factor, the state of the elite, determines what is happening in Russia and will happen. Therefore, it is worth looking at those who regulation in Russia today, and above all they are engaged in the war in Ukraine. In doing so, we request to guarantee that we do not get into public confusion and justice everything with a cool eye.
Let's start with president Vladimir Putin himself. It derives from the safety apparatus of the erstwhile USSR and its functioning there gives, perhaps, a better image of its abilities than the current activity at the head of power in Russia.
For 16 years he remained in the service of the KGB and did not make any crucial career there, yet reaching the insignificant position of the elder assistant chief of the branch and the rank of lieutenant colonel, whom he did not snore until 1989.
This is most likely the origin of any of his complexes today, due to the fact that in 1 of the interviews, he answered that he was only a private intelligence worker, which, roughly, was true.
His later major political promotion was due to his cooperation with Mayor St. Petersburg, Anatoly Sobczak, for whom he initially carried a briefcase. Putin seemed then a more shy, somewhat lost authoritative than the ruthless dictator he is now considered to be.
Although present he is incapable to take decisive human resources and has actually allowed competitive groups to emerge, fighting powerfully among themselves, including in the ellipse of forces active in the war in Ukraine.
The observers of these events, rather in agreement, identify 2 specified groups: 1 is centered around present Minister of Defence Sergei Szojgu and Chief of General Staff of General Walerija Gierasimov, while the another is more complex and consists of characters leading armed formations, fighting in Ukraine but not forming part of the FR Army.
These are: Evgeny Prigozhyn, holding a private PMC military company "Wagner", General Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard, alleged "Rosgwardy", president of the Republic of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, having many own armed formations formally part of that Rosgwardy, and the full tribe of heads of insignificant volunteer formations.
The Primogyna Group is supported by a number of war correspondents, and most importantly, his keen supporter seems to be the main propagandist of the Kremlin, Vladimir Solovyov, who in his filips poses provocative questions, leaving no uncertainty as to who he supports.
For example: late he asked why Rosgwardia does not get dense equipment for equipment (including tanks), although he does tasks on the front the same as the army.
Knowing a bit about Russian politics, the answer to specified a question is not hard at all; the point is that a formation with tanks can immediately become a serious player for power.
As it is known, in 1993, tanks decided on the final result of the game between Jelcine and the ultimate Council, headed by Chasbulatov. The site that had tanks, and did not hesitate to usage them, won.
That's why present Rosgwardia, which besides includes Chechen Kadyrov, does not get tanks. Kadyrov himself claims loyalty, but he did not get free of political ambitions.
Solovjov knows this, but he provokes his questions with his questions, and besides declares his sympathy for Kadyrov and Prigozhin, making a public want that the erstwhile would receive the rank of Colonel General, which is only 1 mesh little than the Shojgu and Gerasimov have.
Interestingly, the army is not a monolith in this game either. Many officers and generals resent Putin's reforms and promoting non-origines to ministerial positions. The fundamental reforms, "thanks" to which the state and capabilities of the Russian army are as they are today, are due to the activity of Anatoliy Sierdiukov, who, they say, before becoming Minister of Defence, was the manager of the furniture store.
After him, the minister became Sergei Szojgu, who besides never served in the army. The military call him “a reindeer farmer”, and worse, he led to a rank of general of the army, thus causing rage in military circles. This is best reflected by the opinion of the social media minister, Igor Girkin, in 2014-2015 active against Ukrainian authorities on Donbas, who the Shojgu army minister and general calls a marshal with a dictatorship and a thief (worm). On the another hand, the current chief of staff, General Gierasimov, who, if not, was liable for the hopeless plan of action against Ukraine during the invasion of 2022, describes him as an idiot and claims that the Shojgu and Gerasimov can advance to the highest positions in the army only losers like themselves, or worse. And that's how the current state of staff in the FR Army is expected to be.
There's no consensus among the top-level generals either. Most of them most likely keep loyalty to the Shoyg, but not all of them can be included in this group, as many have connections with the Prigożyna – Kadyrov group. Priogozyn's people are considered to be generals: Surovikin and Nikoforov, the first of whom, for precisely 3 months, held command of the full Russian forces in Ukraine.
Probably due to the failure to meet the Kremlin's expectations of military progress, on 11 January a change in command and work for operations in Ukraine was assumed by General Gierasimov and Surowikin became 1 of his deputies.
However, this did not lead to a major change on the fronts, although it would seem that the Russian troops took the initiative, obtaining any tiny territorial acquisitions.
However, they were mainly the consequence of the action of Pigogina vasners.
However, there was a further deepening of the conflict between the 2 competing groups: Shojgu-Gerasimova and Prigożyna-Kadyrov.
At first it was hidden, and only any verbal remarks could indicate a conflict.
And so the Primogyn said that only his troops could truly fight, they developed a unique tactic, and his pilots were not afraid to fly, which was an outright adjutant towards the Federation's aviation, whose aircraft actually stopped appearing over the clash area.
In time, these verbal clashes become increasingly violent and there will be no shortage of accusations of sabotaging actions, or possibly even the usage of suicidal methods, specified as Kadyrov's message that 1 of his generals, Alaudinov, who commanded the Ukraine with the “Achmat” forces, was carried out in an effort to poison him. This is simply a serious escalation of conflict.
The Primogyn accused "military bureaucracy", i.e. the structure of the Ministry of Defence, of sabotaging his actions and stopping supplies of ammunition. According to him, “they stick a stick in his spokes all day.” At the same time, he assured that if it were not for these activities of the "military bureaucracy", Bachmut would have been acquired even before the fresh Year, and if there were respective (3-5) specified organizations as his PMC "Wagner", then the Russians would already be in the Dnipa.
It is apparent that specified statements must provoke the rage of the Shojg, who would most likely see military censorship and determined action against people like Priogozyn.
Meanwhile, Putin tries to laverate between the 2 groups, giving larger forums once, once, one more time group, by appointing Surovikin, and immediately thereafter Gerasimov, to the position of commanding troops in Ukraine.
It must besides be admitted that the actions of the Shojg and his generals do not lead to an increase in the effectiveness of the Russian army.
After Gerasimov took command, the orders were to include a ban on the use, in the combat zone, of smartphones, the work of statutory uniforms and shaving, as well as the removal of cars delivered to the army from volunteer collections. According to the general belief, no of these orders led to an increase in the efficiency of the army, and any of them, like the ban on smartphones, could have prevented the usage of drones – quadrocopters, which are now 1 of the main means of combat and reconnaissance, and only origin them to increase losses in the army.
Also, the combat activities of the Szoigu-related generals are not impressive. These include the complete failure of General Muradov's actions under Ugledar. Incompetence and complete misunderstanding of the current battlefield led to the fact that along 1 road to be mined, however, it was again mined by the Ukrainian side with overhead mines, an attack of a large column consisting of tens of tanks and armored vehicles, specified in the kind of Napoleonic wars.
The consequence was the demolition on the mines of most vehicles and the failure of hundreds of people before this column reached the Ukrainian lines. A unique example of stupidity.
In addition, in charge of these actions, General Rustam Muradow, received, shortly after, the promotion has a higher general rank.
This must only exacerbate frustration, among those officers of the Russian army who have any thought of how to carry out war.
However, this promotion for Muradov is understandable to any extent, as he belongs to national minorities, which are presently disproportionately much, in relation to the Russians, utilized in fighting in Ukraine.
If Muradow were punished for his actions, it could be read as any kind of discrimination against minorities and, therefore, lower the motivation of soldiers from these minorities.
This is simply a rough image of tensions and rivalries in relations within Russian personnel in Ukraine. That's not news. specified phenomena happen in all army, and at any time, but most likely only in Russia can consequence in very serious consequences. It is adequate to callback the conflict at the beginning of the First planet War, between Generals Samsonov and Rennenkampf, which caused the defeat of Russian troops in East Prussia. And then it just got worse and there was a civilian war.
This time the situation may be akin and the processes may be launched, which will make what we have seen so far seem like terrible.
Stanisław Lewicki
