This is Donald Trump's planet now. Nowhere can it be seen better than at the late completed next yearly planet economical Forum in Davos. Since the 1970s, this gathering has been an indispensable part of the liberal global order that emerged on the ruins of planet War II. The elites of global politics and economy gather in Davos to discuss global hazard factors and to consider solutions to the problems that we all face together in the form of climate change, expanding inequality and developing artificial intelligence. In this sense, the 55th summit was a continuation of a long-standing tradition.
However, nothing at this year's summit was average due to the fact that the gathering in Davos coincided with the inauguration of Donald Trump's second term, and his return to the White home marks the beginning of the anti-Davos era. There was no further trace of global governance, in which different countries sought common solutions to common problems. We enter a planet that is "poly-" – the primary rule is polycentrism, polycrisis and polysemia, or ambiguity.
In the polycentric world, there is not only a single order, but besides a desire to find specified order. fresh US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear position of the fresh administration Before Congress: “The postwar global global order is outdated, but that is not all: it is now a weapon that is being utilized against us.”
Though Chinese leaders They say something different in global forumsThey're not curious in building that order either. erstwhile president Xi Jinping warns before “great challenges that have not been seen in centuries”, this does not mean the emergence of a planet order under the leadership of Beijing, but instructs Chinese society to prepare itself for a long period of chaos and perturbation.
Moreover, the desire to teardrop down global order is not limited to Trump, but it is amazingly popular in the world. Most respondents poll late commissioned by the European Council on abroad Relations welcomes Trump with open arms. These people are convinced that Trump's presidency will be good for America, and for their own countries, and for planet peace. They agree with the concept in which the United States will become "a common power".
We can no longer presume that powerful countries specified as India, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia or South Africa will support 1 global order centered around the United States. In the polycentric world, each of these countries is considered a major power, or center, alternatively than periphery. The only countries that look at Trump nervously are the US's closest allies in Europe and Asia due to the fact that they have long based their safety and economical prosperity on the belief that America is unique.
The second characteristic of the change is polycrisis. Climate change, fresh technologies, demographic trends and changes in capitalism will make endless turmoil. However, this polycrisis differs from individual acute crises (such as stock marketplace collapses) that it does not give emergence to the request for unity and the introduction of common rules. It has the other effect – each of the many parallel crises competes with others for our attention: climate will compete with migration, Gaza with Ukraine and so on.
So we have a fragmented planet where different tribes have different priorities. As the crises deepen, countries will undoubtedly start utilizing them against each other, which will lead to even more fragmentation. It is known – the first consequence of any crisis is the suspension of the rules and so the rule-based governance will yield to permanent action based on exceptions.
The 3rd feature of the fresh state of affairs is polysemia. The fresh crises take us to places we do not yet know, mostly due to the fact that their interaction has complex and unexpected consequences. Everyone will believe what they want to believe. How can we agree to common principles and norms if we can no longer agree on basic facts?
The global challenge that defines our times is no longer about fighting disorder. Disorder) due to the fact that the concept of disorder is based on the presumption that we all have a common thought of what “order” looks like. Rather, we are dealing with disorder (unorderIn the face of current events, the concept of order itself is no longer important.
At 1 of the private meetings in Davos, I heard a political leader advising others to “relax” and not feel obliged to respond to all Trump attack on customs and territorial expansion. Most leaders do not intend to prepare the global opposition against Trump, they are looking at ways to meet the globalistic goals of the planet economical Forum in a fresh polycentric world. However, now Trump is starting to put its announcements into practice and we will shortly see how long the enthusiasm of the global South will stay for its Presidency.
Trump in the White home doesn't mean the end of Davos. Political leaders and business leaders will proceed to meet here long after his presidency passes away. However, liberal global order, 1 of the pillars of which was the planet economical Forum, is improbable to return in the form in which it appeared after the Second War. The Davos Agenda, as well as the United Nations, the global Monetary Fund and the planet Bank, will should be adjusted accordingly.
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Mark Leonard manager of the European abroad Affairs Council and author of the book Age of non-peace. Interdependence as a origin of conflict (tow. Andrzej Wojtasik, Political Criticism 2022).
Copyright: task Syndicate, 2025. www.project-syncicate.org. From English he translated Maciej Domagała.
