Dark Clouds have accumulated over the leader of the National Unity (NR) for at least a fewer months. With further reports, the threat of Le Pen's adverse result to the court trial, in which investigators watched the creative accounting of her organization from erstwhile it was inactive operating under the name of the National Front (FN) and represented only in the European Parliament, became increasingly real.
How nationalist MEPs stole €4.6 million
The Paris court after respective years of investigation and formal trial launch last September, On 31 March, he announced his decision – over 20 current and erstwhile FN/RNA members were found guilty of participating in public funds fraud during their activity in the Europarliament. Within 12 years (from 2004 to 2016) at least EUR 4.6 million have been systematically embezzled, utilizing fictitious employment of respective twelve people as parliamentary assistants. Only at the time of the detection of the irregularities by the EU authorities, no cooperation with the investigators was stopped and then refused.
The beneficiaries of this organized theft include, for example, Marine Le Pen's then partner (Louis Aliot), her sister (Yann Le Pen), but besides a butler (Gérald Gérin) or a bodyguard (Thierry Légier) Jean-Marie Le Pena. In theory, they all performed various kinds of Euro-Parliamentary duties, receiving a fewer 1000 euros each month, even though they frequently did not even appear in Brussels and in fact did another work for the organization or its leaders. Fictitious employees of the Europarliament kept their earnings for themselves, but the full business was intended primarily to service the interests of the National Front, reducing its own costs.
Other organization activists were liable for organising a strategy whereby EU funds replaced spending usually borne by the FN, which in turn allowed savings to be utilized for another purposes. This fact led the judges to punish the organization itself besides – nationalists will gotta pay a fine of 2 million euros, not counting the million already confiscated during the investigation. It's a painful sanction that's gonna make it harder to run election campaigns any time soon. However, even more controversy arises from the deprivation of passive electoral rights of respective RN politicians, including Marine Le Pen, organization leader and according to early favourite polls in the next presidential campaign.
A triumph of justice or a political process?
Although the convicts have the right to appeal, in the case of, among others, Marine Le Pen, it was decided to make provisional enforcement of the decision to remove the anticipation of applying for public offices. The court found that the FN/RN leader was at the centre of the criminal operation, showing contempt for EU and French rights. Therefore, apart from the fine of EUR 100 000 and the imprisonment for 4 years (two suspended) the decision to punish the election ineligible for the next 5 years with immediate effect.
Depriving passive electoral law is simply a standard procedure for embezzlement of public funds and, similarly, François Fillon – in 2020, the erstwhile Prime Minister heard a conviction for the fictitious employment of household members as parliamentary assistants and lost his chance to apply for offices until the end of the decade. Since the Conservative had already fallen out of the first political league, the decision of the court went unabated. This is not the case with the current Le Pen presidential polls.
Nationalists and their allies launched a run to defend Marine, presenting her as a victim of “oligarchia”, “red courts” and “political process”. Its exclusion from elections is meant to mean "the execution of French democracy". In a akin speech he speaks International right – from Viktor Orbán, through Matteo Salvini, to Elona Muska. The nationalist besides supported the Kremlin, criticising France for "infringing democratic standards". In Poland, Confederate and PiS politicians repeated the "judge coup".
However, the judges in their ruling pointed out that politicians were not above the law, regardless of their popularity. Permissiveness for Le Pen would propose impunity to poll leaders and approval to embezzle public money. At the same time, the jury agrees that the punishment for RN leader is according to the law, providing for the possibility, in certain situations, of a provisional enforcement of a ban on the application for public offices. In the past, Marine herself has repeatedly called for ruthless application of existing criminal laws and zero tolerance for criminals, but she most likely did not anticipate to land on the defendants herself – for now she has announced an appeal from the verdict, while her group must revise its strategy for the next 2 years.
Will the Le Pens organization win without Le Pen?
In April 2027, the first circular of the next presidential election should take place. Emmanuel Macron He will not be able to apply for another term, which, combined with Le Pen's disqualification, means that in the second round, we will not see any of the candidates who faced in overtime at the last 2 votes. The race can so be more open than expected.
The favourite for replacing Marine as RN typical in the upcoming run is Jordan Bardella, organization president and her candidate for Prime Minister in last year's parliamentary elections. A young politician is popular, but there is no warrant that he will be considered by the French to be suitable for the position of president – especially since at least a fewer another right-wing and far-right competitors sharpen their teeth at the Elysée Palace, headed by Érik Zemmour and current head of MSW Bruno Retailleau.
The conviction of Marine Le Pen will treat many as its opportunity, although it can besides be seen that the National Unity will effort to turn the situation to its advantage. Judicial problems have not harmed Trump and French nationalists are now utilizing akin rhetoric as the U.S. president had been a fewer months ago, positioning himself as victims of a corrupt system. The question is, how will specified a communicative connect to the fact that they at the same time tolerate the liberal-conservative government of Bayrou, ruling on the giving of president Macron?
In French politics there are now more unknown than answers, and Le Pen's disqualification from the presidential race adds another question mark. Opponents of the RN hope to weaken the nationalist party, but just as well the "martinity" of the Marine can strengthen the anti-systemic image of the National Unity, pushing to the background ongoing cooperation with macronists. At this point in time, France has shown that its legal strategy does not place influential politicians above the law and can be harsh in cases of public funds fraud – it is not certain, however, that likewise the conviction of the full RN will be interpreted by voters.
