Karol Nawrocki won 50.7% of the vote and Rafał Trzaskowski 49.3% – according to the latest summertime poll, published after the vote. Though the difference is only 1,4 percent points, may find the result of the presidential election. However, it is inactive crucial to bear in head that this is not authoritative data, and the sub-results may change with the inflow of protocols from election committees.
What is the Late Poll and how is it formed?
Late poll is estimated election resultcreated on the basis of data from selected polling venueswho have already completed counting of votes and data from erstwhile exit polls. Unlike exit polli, which are based on declarations of voters leaving the premises, the summertime poll already takes into account Partial results from real committee protocols.
This makes the summertime poll much More accurate than exit poll, although it is inactive indicative and should not be treated as an authoritative result. The key difference is besides that the summertime poll can detect changes due to different dynamics of voting in regions – for example, greater mobilisation in agrarian areas or delays in large cities.
Results of the summertime poll: Nawrocki's advantage
According to the presented data:
- Karol Nawrocki: 50.7%
- Rafał Trzaskowski: 49.3%
The difference is Only 1.4 percent points., which, given the margin of statistical error, makes the consequence to be considered as very balanced. This means that The final results may inactive bring a surprise, peculiarly if data from regions with advanced support for 1 of the candidates is inactive flowing.
Political context: what does this consequence mean?
If the consequence of the summertime poll is confirmed by authoritative PKW data, Karol Nawrocki will become the fresh president of Poland. It'll be First word of office of Nawrocki in the highest position in the countryWhat could mean a crucial change in political course.
Rafał Trzaskowski, who already fought in the second circular with Andrzej Duda in 2020, again lost a minimum difference. However, the score of 49.3% confirms that its political background has very strong support, especially in large cities and among younger voters.
Such polarization of the political scene, visible in almost equal division of voices, will be a challenge for any fresh president, regardless of political colours.
Role of attendance and mobilisation of electorates
It is besides crucial that attendance remains. Although it has not yet been full reported in the summertime poll data, erstwhile estimates indicated record mobilisation – exceeding 70%. specified attendance means that The public was highly active in the electoral processwhich can increase the identity of the winner, regardless of his name.
Also, the method of voting – conventional and correspondence – can affect the final result. The final data from PKW will show, in which regions and social groups candidates gained the advantagewhich will let a more detailed analysis of run strategies.
What's next? We are waiting for the authoritative results of PKW
Late poll does not replace official results of the State Election Commissionwhich are the only basis for announcing the winner. The flow of protocols from electoral committees is ongoing – especially from large cities and abroad, where the counting of votes may take longer.
PKW announced that full, authoritative results may be known in the next fewer hoursMaybe by night or morning. They will yet confirm whether Karol Nawrocki actually won the presidential election.
Only after their publication will it be possible to talk about the beginning of the process of taking office by the fresh head of state.
More here:
Results of Late Poll: Karol Nawrocki ahead of Trzaskowski
