The first circular of the alleged presidential election did not bring a crucial decision – the most votes were won by Rafał Trzaskowski (31.36%), followed by Karol Nawrocki with a score of 29.54%. Both candidates will face the 2nd round, scheduled for 1 June. The key question is: who will support them in overtime? The electorate of Grzegorz Braun and Szymon Holowna, who won crucial support in the first round, although they did not enter the final clash, is of peculiar importance.
The poll gives a clear answer
The latest public opinion poll, conducted by the UCE investigation on 19–20 May by the CAWI method on a typical example of 1011 adults of Poles, shows how the electorate of Braun and Holownia can behave:
- 54.1% of voters Grzegorz Braun plans to support Karol Nawrocki,
- 12.5% declared support for Rafał Trzaskowski,
- 10.4% He inactive doesn't know who he'll vote for,
- 23% does not intend to participate in the second round.
This means that Nawrocki can number on 672 418 additional votesand Trzaskowski on 155 365 from Confederate sympathizers.
In turn among voters Simon Holowna, preferences are broken down differently:
- 73.8% (722,754 people) intend to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski,
- 10.9% (106 600 votes) will elect Karol Nawrocki,
- 10.9% Hasn't decided who she's voting for yet,
- 4.4% shall not vote.
These data clearly show that Trzaskowski has a chance to importantly strengthen his support thanks to the electorate Holownia, while Nawrocki can draw votes mainly from conservative-free circles.
Presidential elections and constitutional legal trap
Although the election conflict is temporing, it is worth noting that presidential elections – unlike parliamentary elections – require validation by the ultimate Court, which follows straight from Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland:
“The validity of the president of the Republic’s election is stated by the ultimate Court.”
Currently, politicised competence in this area is exercised Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the ultimate Court, however, the legality of which is subject to controversy under global jurisprudence.
The Court of Justice of the European Union (judgment of 19 November 2019, Case C-585/18, C-624/18, C-625/18) and the European Court of Human Rights (judgment on Reczkowicz p. Poland, Complaint No 43447/19) challenged the position of that Chamber as an independent and legally established court.
In the assessment of the tribunals, it is problematic, among others, to appoint judges by neo-National Judiciary Council (neo-KRS)whose legality has besides been challenged. As a result, the ultimate Court ruling stating the validity of the President's election may not be deemed to have been issued by a body gathering constitutional and global standardswhich raises serious concerns about the stableness of the state institutions.
Potential constitutional chaos
Such a situation carries the threat of constitutional chaos. Pursuant to Article 130 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, the president shall take office after taking an oath to the National Assembly – which is possible only after the validity of the elections has been established. If this procedure had been challenged, it could have been:
- paralysis of the presidential institution,
- questioning the mandate of the recently elected President,
- fundamental constitutional disputes,
- Use of the situation for publication emergency – exceptional or even war (in accordance with Articles 229 to 234 of the Polish Constitution).
This is all a threat to the constitutional and democratic governance of governments.
Conclusion
The presidential election of 2025 will not only find the head of state, but can besides find the further form of the regulation of law in Poland. The results of the polls show clear shifts of electorates and their impact on the result of the 2nd round, but behind all this there is simply a much deeper problem – the legality of the process of approving the election of the President. In times of increasing political tension and the regulation of law crisis, any vote and any provision of the Constitution can be decisive.
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Who will vote for Braun and Holowna? The fresh poll reveals preferences before the II circular of alleged elections
