According to the latest data from the State Election Commission, Karol Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote, ahead of Rafał Trzaskowski (49.11%). In the light of this win, it is worth looking at the election programme and the public statements of Nawrocki to measure what his relation with the government may look like and what consequences he may have for the legislative process in Poland. Although the candidate for Law and Justice announced his willingness to cooperate and declared that he would not be the president blocking government initiatives "in principle", his announcements and the program point to something much more complicated.
Veto on key economical and social issues
Karol Nawrocki during the run made it clear that despite the rhetoric of cooperation, he is willing to block many crucial laws, even if they are socially supportive or of economical importance. peculiarly delicate topics include health, taxes, energy transformation and civilian rights.
1. simplification of wellness contributions – re-repeating veto?
During the campaign, Nawrocki expressed strong opposition to any changes that could weaken the wellness system. This approach is in line with the decision of current president Andrzej Duda, who vetoed a bill reducing the wellness contribution for entrepreneurs. The fresh rules were to come into force in 2026, but Nawrocki promises that, like Duda, he will not support them, citing the request for stableness in the backing of wellness services.
2. Cadastral taxation – declarations versus reality
Nawrocki announced a proposal for a constitutional protection of families against cadastral tax, which would completely exclude its introduction. However, his statements propose that he could agree to restrictions on owners of many properties – a solution advocated, among others, by Lewica. This means a possible compromise that can hit investors and owners of many housing, although Nawrocki formally rejects the introduction of cadastral tax.
3. Windmill Act and Energy Transformation Block
Energy transformation is 1 of the most crucial and controversial political topics in Poland. Nawrocky openly opposes the construction of wind turbines close the buildings, which is part of a government task assuming a distance of 500 metres. In practice, its position may completely block the improvement of renewable energy sources, especially in the field of land windmills. Declarations on the request for further coal extraction confirm that its presidency may impede or hold the implementation of EU and national green plans.
4. fresh taxes and fiscal burdens – clear 'no'
During the Nawrocki campaign, he promised not to sign any bill raising existing taxes, contributions and fees or introducing fresh fiscal burdens. Although this is simply a strong electoral communication, its implementation may be hard in practice, especially with the request for state and local government funding. At the same time, his taxation contract provides for circumstantial changes, specified as the simplification of VAT from 23% to 22%, the zero PIT for multi-children families, the increase of the second taxation threshold to PLN 140 1000 or the liquidation of the Belka tax.
Worldview and regulation of law
5. Freedom of speech versus hatred speech
Nawrocki stressed that he would be the guardian of the Constitution on freedom of expression and would not sign a bill extending the catalogue of hatred crimes to fresh premises specified as age, gender, disability or sexual orientation. This position coincides with the actions of Andrzej Duda, who directed this bill to the Constitutional Court, citing the protection of freedom of speech. In practice, this means that projects tightening up government in this area are improbable to be adopted.
6. Laws restoring the regulation of law – further disputes
The Nawrocks have most likely duplicated the current President's strategy on the laws concerning the National Judicial Council and the Constitutional Court, directing them to the Constitutional Court's audit or vetoing. This means that government aimed at "repairing" the position of judges appointed after 2018 and restoring the regulation of law within the meaning of the EU will stay in stalemate.
Women's rights and abortion issues
7. Opposition to the return to the abortion compromise
Nawrocki clearly opposed the return to the alleged abortion compromise, which would include, among another things, the anticipation of abortion in the event of severe foetal malformations, according to the legal condition prior to the 2020 TK judgment. There are inactive 4 abortion law projects in the Sejm, but their destiny in the case of Nawrocki's presidency is uncertain. His position fits into the conservative PiS line, which will have a direct impact on the form of social policy in this area.
Future prospects – co-habitation or conflict?
Karol Nawrocki, despite his declaration of openness to co-operation with the government, may in practice prove to be the President, who will frequently exercise the right of veto, especially in the areas of worldview, taxation and energy. His positions indicate that conflicts with the Law and Justice Government, despite a common political camp, are possible – especially erstwhile it comes to maintaining the conservative values and stableness of the wellness system.
From the point of view of citizens and businesses, this means continuing legislative uncertainty, where key changes can be stopped or importantly delayed. The election of Nawrocki as president is simply a signal that in the coming years Poland's policy will stay mostly influenced by conservative and socially restrictive demands, with limited scope for fast reforms in any areas.
More here:
Karol Nawrocki's election program. What about the key laws?
