“I have 2 messages for you, good and bad,” says the doctor. “Let’s start with good”, the patient asks. “Well: this illness will be called your name!”
Similarly, this note will be optimistic. Let me start with the good news: I do not believe that Jarosław Kaczyński will be a Polish Viktor Orban.
It can't be for purely metric reasons. In a couple of years, he'll be 70.
At this age, wellness simply does not let a man to act as an iron chancellor who wields all the strings. Bismarck, in honor of whom the nickname was invented, lost his power at the age of 75, erstwhile another generation of politicians appeared in Parliament and in the imperial court, better than him playing the art of court and cabinet intrigue.
This means that even if PiS is playing like a monolith for now, beating Blitzkrieg from “recovery” to “silence”, the organization itself must have an atmosphere of waiting to change leadership. president Duda has reasonable reason to anticipate this subject to appear in his current term.
That leads us to what I think is bad news. Many commentators seem to sincerely hope that Duda will search compromise with the opposition, or in any another way break out of the written monolith.
Because he's ashamed that his promoter condemns him. due to the fact that his wife looks smart and level. due to the fact that he'll be afraid of the Court of State. due to the fact that he cares about re-election – and so on.
In my humble opinion, Duda plays not only for re-election, but for succession in the PiS. He is not the only one, of course, but he has the advantage, due to the fact that the Komorowski presidency has shown that in this position it is simply adequate to be. Even Peter Sellers would have advanced ratings if his function in political life was limited to giving a message on a good background from time to time.
The PiS has already had successful false starts. So far, the president could sit down and humiliate any rival. In PiS everyone is aware that this organization has no electorate, the electorate has Kaczyński.
If Kaczyński announces the PiS next day and establishes a fresh organization – this organization will take over most of the support of the PiS. If that's the kind of initiative Duda takes, he'll end up like Dr. Migalski.
Of course, all this will only work for a while. I think the results of all medical examinations by Jarosław Kaczyński have a rich life, circulating in many copies of political cabinets, analysed by possible successors, ready to start playing for the throne.
Duda plays the wait. For now he must show loyalty at all turn, due to the fact that if Kaczyński curses him, the hope of re-election is over. But that's all for now. If he plays his cards well, he will be Polish Orban.
I only hope that in this blitzkrieg they will yet lose momentum. But I inactive don't see a good thought for the barrage of the opposition.
