Donald Trump's election as president of the United States caused an avalanche of comments in our country. Many have even announced that the new-old American leader will lead to a change of power besides in Poland. In liberal-left media, there is no shortage of hysteria towards the coming from the ocean of Fascism. Others argue that the fresh York billionaire only uses right-wing rhetoric, and in practice will regulation the large business. What can we truly anticipate from Trump?
Between the dreams of counter-revolution and the hard realities
It is easiest to measure Trump's impact on the planet and Poland at the level of civilization, where no uncertainty his triumph is simply a better option than 4 years of Kamala Harris. In his surroundings is simply a large group of Catholics and conservatives who see in an eccentric billionaire the tool to overthrow the long-standing dominance of liberal elites and left-wing cultural hegemony. Interestingly, the president of the Think Tank Heritage Foundation Kevin Roberts wrote in a program book published a fewer months ago about “the conflict between the Creation Party—those who defend the natural order of God... and the demolition Party—those who search to overthrow the existing order in the name of emancipation, freedom, progress”. Roberts calls for “fighting fire with fire” and “long controlled burning” of the institution of the “degenerated elite” – he mentions, among others, “all Ivy League universities”, the FBI, a diary New York Times, “80% of pseudo-Catholic education”, BlackRock and planet economical Forum. "Burning rot" president Heritage compares to cutting and burning trees infected with parasites to save the forest.
Introduction to Roberts' book was written by individual another than J.D.Vance. The current vice-elect pointed out as a key task of the fresh right “encouraging our children to marry and have children. We should teach them that matrimony is not just a contract, but a community—as much as possible—for life” and “create a material situation in which having a household is not just for the privileged.” "We request offensive conservatism, not just 1 that tries to halt the left from doing things we don't like," Vance concludes.
Of course, there are besides quite a few opportunists, ideologically disordered people and business groups around Trump. For the next 4 years, the fresh U.S. government will most likely be a field of competition between various forces. Even in the worst scenario, Trump will not go as far as pushing ideological content hitting the household and Christianity as Biden or Harris. We will see how many good things can be pulled out by those active in his administration who take their religion seriously to Christians. It seems within reach, for example, to ban kid mutilation in the name of transgenderism, which has already occurred in any states and would be a affirmative example for us as well. From the point of view of Poland, it is crucial that Trump's win itself fakes liberal-left determinism and extends the scope of acceptable debate in the Western world. His erstwhile triumph was in fact of greater cultural importance than legislative and political - in the second field he was mostly lost.
Ukraine: Americans get along with Russians?
The most common charge against Trump by mainstream media is alleged pro-Russianism. In practice, all its denominations for the 4 most crucial positions—foreign and defence ministers, national safety advisers and CIA director—have many statements on account of Russia's criticism and support for its US actions over the years. Only indicated as head of intelligence Tulsa Gabbard is simply a typical isolator – she will most likely have the task of balancing the interventionist urges of the others.
Possible (if approved by the Senate, but should be formal) future head of American diplomacy Marco Rubio could call Vladimir Putin a gangster or a war criminal, as a senator he supported a bill preventing president Trump from abolishing sanctions against Moscow, and after 24 February he called on president Biden to aid Kiev more actively, including, for example, handing over Poland fighters in exchange for us to hand over our Ukrainians. Rubio is simply a typical hawk, peculiarly harsh towards China and then Iran. He besides opposed leaving Afghanistan.
Let's talk to the Americans about specifics.
Rubio now declares that the war "unfortunately will end as a consequence of negotiations", but it is clear that he will want to talk to Moscow from the position of force and avoid the fall of Kiev – he repeats that he wants Ukraine to have as strong a position as possible in the negotiations. He argued a fewer days ago that a "healthy" agreement would be good for Ukraine itself, otherwise it would be destroyed, and "the reconstruction would take another 100 years". The fundamental question is: how many Americans will be able to force on Russians without threatening to usage their own soldiers? And sending American boys to Ukraine would be unacceptable to society, including Trump voters. From the point of view of Poland, it is crucial that we talk to the Americans about specifics and not be content with patting on the shoulder or phrases about the relationship of Ronald Reagan and John Paul II. besides often, visits by U.S. Presidents to the Vistula River revolved around common pictures and beautiful words.
In exchange for our advanced military spending and loyalty, we should anticipate preferential terms from the US for arms contracts or trade duties. During Trump's erstwhile term, much was said about the Tri-Sea Initiative, at which the president of the United States himself appeared in Warsaw, but the money actually donated by Americans to the Initiative Fund was little than expected, and the advancement of regional cooperation was limited. We must besides take into account that the Americans may want to lay a direct work on our soldiers to keep an agreement in Ukraine. Finally, we must remember that no government in Washington will always break the channels of communication with Moscow as an atomic power.
Trump will give us an example of how to win moms?
It may be beneficial for Poland to seal relations between the US and Germany, against which Trump has been heavy critical over the years. The Republican administration will not look favourably at the attempts to build Berlin's dominance in Europe. We will see how strong and effective the force on Germany to permanently cut off from Russia and China will be. On the another hand, the likely fresh Chancellor Friedrich Merz will want to charm Trump as a somewhat more right-wing politician, the enemy Merkel and the business man, and Germany is besides crucial for the US to completely break up with them.
If Trump implements the promises of a deep revision of climate policy, this will be a strong argument for the EU to besides retreat from the Green Deal, whose impact on global carbon emissions will become all the more illusory. The tightening of protectionism can hit us, although paradoxically it will besides force on Europeans somewhat greater economical pragmatism alternatively of ideological fantasies. Finally, the attitude of Trump's administration towards large technological concerns specified as Google, Facebook or Amazon, whose power and ideological censorship Trump and another politicians now criticized in opposition.
Will Poland be crucial to Trump?
The pace of the appointment of the fresh ambassador will be the litmus paper of the Trump government's attitude towards Poland. The Ambassador to Israel was announced respective days after winning the election. Both Georgette Mosbacher for the first Trump and Mark Brzezinski for Biden, however, went to Warsaw only a year after the change of power. If Trump, Vance and Rubio are truly curious in relations with us and the political situation in Poland, they will rapidly point individual serious and trusted.
Surely the fresh president of the United States is not an enthusiast of Donald Tusk, who in stupid and unnecessary (even for his own interests) was active in the attacks on Trump more than another liberal politicians (such as Scholz or Macron) and went on to simply fabricate an "incriminating" American facts billionaire. It cannot be ruled out that there is any symbolic support (e.g. suggestive words of the president or Vice President) for the opposition before the presidential election, nevertheless it is not foregone. However, Americans will not fake elections. any PiSu politicians and sympathizers seem to believe that the failure of power in 2023 was solely the consequence of the actions of abroad forces of darkness, not the mistakes and disappointment of many Poles with their power. Now, for a change, they hope that the outer forces of light will bring them back to power. Not due to the fact that they learned from their mistakes, but due to the fact that they thought it would be fair. This is typical wishful reasoning and shifting work from 1 another – fatal both in the life of the community as individual.
Poland is not completely irrelevant, but the US has many more crucial problems. Rather, in practice, the placebo effect may happen – Trump's triumph simply adds European right-wing self-confidence. Worse if this religion turns into a dull complacency. Polish hopes of choosing Trump are so large that there is no way that there is no disappointment. Even if much good comes from the fresh presidency, Trump will not be the fresh Napoleon, who will free us from (potential) invaders. The future of Poland depends primarily on ourselves. We must learn not to wait for abroad saviours, but to pragmatically exploit the global economy according to our business.
Casper Kita
