A fresh week, a fresh bombing in Germany – this could be a bit of a gruesome situation behind our western border. Our neighbors, whom we have looked at for decades with envy, are facing structural problems on many levels today. What do German troubles and the forthcoming change of government in Berlin mean for Poland?
System rot
The fresh elections to the Bundestag confirmed trends that we can observe for a long time across Europe. The German political scene is becoming increasingly unstable and fragmented. The utilized parties of the old establishment lose support, and the hegemony of liberal-left dogmas crumbles. However, both are besides slow to have a real change in power and to solve structural problems causing social discontent.
After planet War II, Germany, like most Western Europe, was governed alternately by the chadecy and social democracy. CDU/CSU and SPD were able to collect up to 90% of the votes together. Even in the 2013 election, it was over 67%. Now the old duopol has fallen to 45%. The collapse of both main forces into a single liberal-globalist camp was personalized by Angela Merkel – a “cheek” that imports hundreds of thousands of immigrants, contributing to the Islamization of Europe and introducing homosexual marriages. The "Iron Chancellor" ruled 3 of the 4 word as part of the "great coalition" of CDU/CSU with the SPD. The apparent conflict between the right and the left became a theatre behind the facade of which various interest groups were rich.
Although Merkel retired from mainstream media fanfare, creating her as a prominent leader and “cesarist Europe”, present her mistakes are not only seen by bitter conservatives. The Chancellor not only deepened her energy dependency on Russia, but besides introduced Germany to the road of closing atomic power plants – the last of them yet liquidated the Scholz government. The extremist green transformation not only increased the cost of surviving of average people, but besides made the country dependent on China, which began to surpass Germany in their own game, with the marketplace becoming a global exporter. There is besides a low innovation of the German manufacture and the collapse of the German army.
Long march AfD
Another government with the far-left Greens on board, of course, not only did not correct Merkel's mistakes, but went even further. Further imports of immigrants, the highest electricity prices in the EU, recession, group redundancies in subsequent companies specified as Bosch – can be exchanged. Germany has been an oasis of stableness for years, but Scholz will enroll in the annals as the first in the 1960s Chancellor to not last even 1 full term. The Sociallemocracy received the weakest score since 1887 – they had previously done equally badly erstwhile Otto von Bismarck was inactive a chancellor. This is another example of how harmful the power of this kind of formation is to society – especially spiritually but besides materially.
It is hard to be amazed – fresh weeks have brought a real cavalcade of terrorist attacks and force against Germans. 1 might even think that immigrants want to aid AfD accomplish the best possible consequence – but it was most likely primarily a demonstration of force. Just before the Munich elections, the Afghan drove into the crowd by car – he injured 37 people and murdered a young parent and her two-year-old child. Earlier in Magdeburg, a Saudi entered the Christmas fair – 1 of the fewer manifestations of Christianity in public space. He killed six people and injured 299. All of these people would have lived, if it had not been for the crazy politics of successive governments, for decades now bringing to Europe large-scale immigrants from abroad cultures in the name of illusions of economical benefits and subsequent “human rights generation”. The rights of (potential) perpetrators are consistently regarded as more crucial than the rights of (potential) victims – indigenous Europeans exposed to death, rape, theft and failure of their own country.
Long march AfD
In addition, the alternate to Germany received the support of the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, and the vice president of the United States. J.D. Vance called straight – and in Munich, a symbolic city in which Hitler attempted to make a coup in 1923 – to complete the AfD isolation. He then demonstrably met with her leader Alice Weidel (as the granddaughter of SS Hans Weidel), while ignoring Chancellor Scholz. From the point of view of Poland, the situation is very interesting and unobvious – the fresh rulers of America clearly want to build an “anti-globalistic” international, in exchange for specified gestures of support awaiting transition to pro-American positions.
And indeed – although AfD has for years been leading in criticism of Berlin's attitude towards the US, Weide clearly softened her speech by giving a series of interviews to American media. Similarly, Israel has been doing so for years – Benjamin Netanjahu gives another right-wing organization a "non-antisemite" placeet, helping them to legitimize, in exchange for their support of Israel. A akin interest has not yet been expressed by the fresh US president and his allies, although the presidential elections in our country will be held in 2 months, and many PiS politicians have sought Trump's support.
All mentioned favorable AfD circumstances translated into 20.8% of the vote. That and a lot and a little. On the 1 hand, twice as much as in erstwhile elections, on the another hand little than in the polling summit of early 2024, erstwhile German nationalists hit 25%. The support of Musk did not aid – AfD did not improve the result compared to that before the American engagement. Three-quarters of Germans are inactive ready to give the old parties another chance, and the fear of Nazi return and further instability caused by the governments of “radicals” stay strong. It is besides worth noting that AfD improved its performance in all regions of Germany, not only in the erstwhile GDR, as Trump gained throughout America in November. So there seems to be a space for further progressive Alternative.
The force of Germany on Poland will increase?
In the end, the CDU/CSU and SPD escaped from the hatchet – thanks to the failure to cross the threshold by the left-wing patriotic Movement of Sahra Wagenknecht and Liberals from the FDP will be possible another "great coalition", although with a tiny majority in the Bundestag. one more time the forces of the old establishment will effort to halt the increasing social frustration – this time under the leadership of Friedrich Merz. On the 1 hand, the process of decomposing the German political scene is good for Poland – weaker and forced to deal with a large number of interior problems Germany. The German economical model caught a clear breath and doubtful that the fresh government could importantly change the situation. German dominance in Europe present is weaker than in Merkel, which was an undisputed EU leader, effectively imposed its will on the others and was able, for example, to overthrow the Italian Government in 2011. A clear ambition for Europe's leadership has late been announced by France, although of course it is besides struggling with many problems – but it is worth noting the tensions on the Paris-Berlin line and their natural rivalry.
Secondly, Chancellor Merz is likely to ease the course of the Green Agenda, which may have any affirmative impact on the situation across the EU, including Poland. Despite the removal of the Greens from the government, no profound conservative change is expected – besides due to the fact that Merz does not full control the CDU, in which there are inactive many merkelists, slobbering at all chance against any approach to AfD and wanting to stick to the "road center".
However, we can anticipate that, in the face of the shift of social sentiment to the law and many assassinations, the fresh government will at least effort to fake the actions of immigration. This, in turn, will most likely mean sending more immigrants to Poland through German services – due to the fact that throwing the problem on the neighbours is the simplest thing to do with it. It will so require social force on the Polish government to adopt an assertive and constructive attitude. We cannot agree to leave dangerous people to Poland and Germany and another European countries should be offered joint action to deport them back outside Europe alternatively of moving them among themselves. A good example is the fresh action of the All-Polish Youth, whose activists appeared at the centre for migrants in Eisenhüttenstadt and displayed the banner "Send them abroad, not behind the Odra". In view of these threats, real reinforcement of border guards will besides be necessary. We cannot scope the standard issue of Donald Tusk, who throws words under the public's “acute” as a “suspension of the right to asylum” (a fresh castration of pedophiles, a fresh alkotubek, now military training...) and thanks to the outrage of any left-wing media he legitimizes himself as a defender of public order, although his statements do not show much.
The revival of German nationalism?
Germany benefited from globalisation and based its position on the strength of the exporting manufacture on world-wide and political stability, which will besides make it harder for them to cope with the collapse of the liberal global order. Now the military origin will play a major function again in Europe's policy, which France intends to usage to strengthen its position towards Germany. It will so be interesting if Merz will be able to carry out his announcements and rebuild the German army. Poland so faces the problem of rebirth of German nationalism, which has been a threat to us for centuries. It is simply a natural phenomenon – the last witnesses of the war and crimes of the 3rd Reich are dying. This is not only about AfD, but besides about a gradual change in public debate – for example, the possible reconstruction of the German military and the arms industry, although for now these are just plans, which may not consequence much.
We're not allowed to succumb to liberal left-wing hysteria. We request to keep a cool head and keep channels of communication with any crucial political force behind Oder, developing a factual dialogue. We must be aware of the risks, but besides of any opportunities and common threats that unite Europeans – immigration, Islamisation, the centralisation of the EU, the demolition of sovereignty and the identity of nations, the extremist green agenda. Germany has besides many interior problems and is besides bad for the fresh September 1939 to endanger us in the foreseeable future. For Poland Germany is optimal, neither besides strong, nor besides rotting and Islamic-left (because then they would radiate a bad example on us). In the end, we have an influence primarily on our own country and alternatively of letting ourselves be active in considering what kind of German or US government would be good for us, we should strengthen Poland and prepare it for all possible scenarios of improvement of unstable global situation.
Casper Kita
