I've been watching American politics for years. I have studied it in these pages. No wonder what happens erstwhile I meet individual who knows me from the press, I hear this question: who will yet win in the upcoming elections? And I hesitate. I answer honestly, according to the analysis of the full situation – and this 1 is so variable that my consequence besides changes. So now I will betray my final verdict a fewer days before the election. I have no idea. No consequence will surprise me – and at the same time, no consequence will be considered final until the fresh president is yet sworn in on 20 January Anna Domini 2025. Is the situation tense? How's that?
Why all this variation in analyst forecasts? Well, American politics has become so tribal in fresh decades, and the United States itself equally divided between the 2 camps that elections are little dependent on the flows between parties, and more so on who will be chosen this time by you imprisoned in the middle: voters without organization affiliation. These do not hesitate due to the fact that it is so hard to choose between 2 parties, and due to the fact that most of them just live, not curious in politics besides much, until they are curious in them.
It is an electorate susceptible to change, susceptible to superficial and biased information from the media, susceptible to mood. It is an electorate, for which it is not entirely known which criterion of choice will be the most crucial for them. Besides, there will be no 1 criterion – non-attached voters are unattached, so different. Sometimes they are most affected by their economical situation; sometimes they are afraid about abortion; sometimes it is simply a desire to change; and sometimes it is simply a purely negative, irrational voice; not an intellectually motivated reaction against 1 or the another candidate.
Mood swings short summary
As I entered the election year, I watched president Biden's deteriorating condition in our eyes. I was increasingly convinced that despite all the continuing media attack on Donald Trump, with the current state of the American economy, but above all with Biden's wellness condition, the chances of the second are decreasing overnight. After all, in 2020 it seemed like a shadow of the erstwhile self, carefully hidden from the media. However, it was known that while the candidate managed to hide from the nation, the president could no longer hide. I sat “with my ear to the ground” and listened to these bulldog fights under the rug in the Democratic Party; bulldogs trying to force a change of candidate, or on the contrary – to stay with Bidena. I will not say that I am amazed at the consequence of the celebrated pre-election debate with Trump – neither in terms of the overwhelming impression she has made on the public, nor in terms of the action she has started to replace the candidate. This was the debate – the clever play of Biden's surroundings, to usage public opinion to force his president to resign from running. For so strong is the authority of the head of the state that despite his shocking (shocked) intellectual state, as long as he insisted on running, the Democratic organization was ready all way, all trick to silence his inner-party opponents and close any discussion about primaries. The debate, arranged before the party's nomination process was completed, however, caused specified a large dent in the polls that Joe Biden was put before the fact made.
As for pettyness and incompetence – I do not know whether it is foolish, but surely utmost incompetence in the sphere of public appearances – his anointed successor, Vice president Kamala Harris, I had no uncertainty either. And yet, seeing this truly sincere relief among the Democrats, seeing a truly sincere enthusiasm for her candidacy; and seeing besides how these facts find reflection in the polls, I thought it might actually suffice: that a run built on the void of the message, in the absence of any political statements, on the clean vibes, i.e. "good vibrations" of a candidate – even vibrations built only by the media – will actually accomplish success. For it was known that Trump's anti-electorate was strong enough, and even among Republicans there is simply a faction that may not vote for Democrats, but may simply not go to the Trump election. So possibly it would be adequate to convince the indecisive, unattached voters that Harris has a triumph in his pocket.
Having practically all mainstream media on its side, ready to lie about the success of its candidate, to fake and hide her missteps, just 2 months before the election a better question would be: how precisely would this fail? Especially erstwhile in the first debate already authoritative candidates Harris and Trump, the second easy allowed himself to be manipulated, wasting time on childish tirades alternatively of scoring the blame of the opponent, attempting to at the same time claim the merits of Biden's presidency, but to reject his massive negligence in the sphere of economy and immigration; trying to be at the same time a candidate for continuation and change. Especially due to the fact that Trump's election of J. D. Vance as a vice president did not aid him – this young, well-prepared, highly promising politician would be the perfect successor for him. Today, however, his firm, sharp views had the possible to alienate the indecisive, centreful electorate.
So last period I said, "I think Harris is going to win, and I don't think the Republicans are going to be able to flush the air out of that inflated balloon. And then, well... then the Democrats went on to do it. Seeing Trump constantly, non-stop giving interviews, they felt they had to let Kamala Harris to besides give interviews, formerly scrupulously avoided due to her incredible inability to improvise with any sense. And so with each subsequent interview, Harris, with all bizarre statement, a stream of words lacking content, could be observed a decline in moods. We have yet reached this point present erstwhile there are rumours about the almost panic spreading within the Democratic ranks. erstwhile even the trade unions and the media allies of Democrats began to push back, refusing authoritative support from Harris for fear that Trump's triumph would gotta pay dearly for it.
Spectacular implosion, but...
So a week before the Kamala election, Harris has problems not only in the polls in key swing states – states where you gotta win in order to complete your overall triumph – but besides at the level of the full country. It seems that despite the 8 years of campaigning for Trump, despite being challenged virtually by fascists and dictators, his support even increased. It is possible, nevertheless unlikely, that Trump will not only win, but even win the majority among the voters of the full country, if, of course, you can trust the polls. And you can't categorically believe that. The pollers themselves admit it – in Trump's day they simply cannot read public opinion.
Of course, we realize that most of them are biased, but it's not even about that – something else to "bend" the facts to aid win their candidate, and something else erstwhile you simply can't establish these facts. Effective polls have always been that a randomly chosen responsive will honestly answer questions. What, though, erstwhile technological changes have caused crucial groups of voters that cannot be reached due to the fact that they do not have fixed phones, due to the fact that they automatically reject unknown calls in the cell, and besides due to the fact that they do not trust the media or the pollers anymore, they simply refuse to talk or simply lie? Mistakes in surveys have become the norm, and recognizing and correcting these mistakes is genuinely difficult. Interestingly, the supplementary elections of 2022 showed that the mistake was not only about anti-system voters, usually inclined towards Trump – due to the fact that then it was revealed that these polls giving triumph to the Republicans were wrong. The consequence of the election was decided by the masses of unattached voters who were not curious in the polls and who, however, yet voted in favour of the Democrats.
So we do not know what the actual “state of play” is. We know 1 thing – American establishment He is absolutely determined to Trump erstwhile and well defeat. I'll spare you the summary of all the charges, the formal charges that were made along the way to the erstwhile president. I'm gonna save you all the rhetoric. I will ask you a simple question: does anyone think that the people behind these accusations are just going to hand over power to Trump if he wins the majority in the election? Will they even let him to gain a majority when, after the erstwhile 2020 elections, They brag about themselves. Time Magazine All those actions carried out to "enhance elections"? Should I go further and remind them of the interior “war games” that the Democrats carried out before the elections, examining what they could do in case Trump, however, managed to get adequate votes? In these games even the variant of the secession announcement was discussed – although these were pure speculations, the fact itself tells us that they are not small. Today, we hear various “strange” news from the United States – about arson of polling urns (full filled cards, due to the fact that early voting is already underway), about registering foreigners, about fighting to cut these foreigners out of the letter and about attempts by the national government to block these purges. Many another specified news can be pointed out – possibly any are false, possibly any are just rumors, but are all? The fight is already ongoing, and although yet this kind of "art" cannot defeat a candidate who would have a crushing majority, it is all possible in a situation where triumph can depend on respective tens of thousands of votes in respective states.
Trump can win but inactive “must die”
Almost 2 years ago, erstwhile it became clear that Trump would be a candidate again; that no another Republican would take that privilege from him, we had a kind of public debate in these pages, in which my last voice was an article claiming Trump must ‘die’ – that American establishment categorically, he absolutely won't let him win again. Of course, it wasn't about Trump being virtually murdered – although we can see that even specified actions have late been taken. The point was that the ruling Democrats, with the silent support of the anti-trumpet faction among Republicans, will strive to kill Trump's "populist" movement erstwhile and for all – and that they will accomplish it.
Today, as you can see, I do not believe that this will be achieved before the elections. But that doesn't mean that if Trump wins, there will be surrender. That Trump would abruptly get carte blanche To transform America. Never head whether he is capable of it – I usually remind you that what is what, but his own competence to wield presidential power in his first word did not show. But why would all those whom he, with the support of a large part of the nation, would aid him? Who said the same establishment, who was so outraged by the riots on January 6, 2021, will not now benefit from any another anticipation of blocking the approval of the unfavorable verdict of voters? Can Kamala Harris, simply calling Trump a fascist and dictator, even stand before the cameras and congratulate him on his victory, recognizing his Democratic mandate? That would be absurd. What is he expected to do – to retreat after the election from this rhetoric, to laugh, as he utilized to do, and to say that it's just run talk? No, no – there are any guns that erstwhile fought, they can't get off the battlefield unused. But besides on Trump's side, of course, there is simply a large determination to push his victory; and, let's be honest, if you could win with any legal tricks, despite the deficiency of most electors, Trump would do everything possible.
So I don't know who's gonna win. I know, however, that regardless of the nominal consequence - which may not even be announced on election night, as utilized to be the case - the fight will continue. And if Trump yet becomes president, then the conflict for his overthrow will begin. Let us remember that the results of the presidential election do not gotta coincide with the results of the vote to legislature – and it may turn out that the winner, whoever he is, will have his hands tied by an enemy majority in legislation. In short, the current elections are not the breakthrough that will seal the triumph of either side. Rather, they open the way to further, even more heated confrontation. Untraceable from American Reality establishment In the end, he must lose in the fight against the increasing forces striving for a deep reconstruction of the already inefficient system. I inactive don't think Trump's political career will last until now, and after the past fewer months, I wouldn't even bet he won't lose his own life.
And somewhere on the another side of the Pacific and the Atlantic, many countries are watching closely. Among them is both Russia and, above all, China, asking itself whether it is already “this moment” or not. Have I mentioned that the times have come besides interesting? Yeah, I mentioned it.. Unfortunately, on the eve of the election – the situation remains unchanged.
Jakub Majewski