This is soon, Monday: the swearing-in, for the second time, of Donald Trump as president of the United States. But possibly you gotta ask – how is this, not until Monday? After all, he seems to be more present in planet politics than Joe Biden's outgoing. present we can hear that he was the 1 who forced the Israeli government to yet agree to the ceasefire. Today, there is simply a change in the rhetoric of another key players in the world. So the question of how Trump will change planet politics is: no changebut changed. And then get to the details.
Yes, Trump's second presidency surprises us with its dynamics at the outset. It was kind of predictable, but you gotta figure out why. Well, as the first in over a 100 years – specifically, since 1893, and only the second in United States past after Grover Cleveland, Trump is besides the fresh and old president. He replaces in the political position of the opponent, he has yet to take power – but due to his first term, he is not an unknown factor. And that truly changes a lot.
Old-new president
One can say jokingly, Trump after leaving the White House, until the winning election again, was a peculiar arturian the erstwhile and future king. But, putting aside jokes, he is simply a individual so polarizing, so intensely judged – 1 way or the other, that fewer look at him indifferently, as simply a "average" president. No, Trump is actually besides frequently seen in these legendary categories – by his followers as a large leader who after a treacherous blow, after 4 years of recuperation, now returns to his rightful place, and by his enemies, as the genuinely top nightmare, the worse that erstwhile he was able to overthrow him 4 years ago, he now returned with double power, and the full planet was powerless to halt him. Everything is exaggerated in Trump's grades. But here's the thing: we're not just talking about history, we're not talking about the disputes of journalists and historians about individual who is already meaningless present – we're talking about the President's authority.
No wonder, therefore, that, overtaken by the reputation of the political miracle worker-and-infestor-arcisaan developed over more than a decade – Trump did not start his tenure on January 20, but on election day. Already then, those of the politicians of the planet who had to deal with Trump during his first word of office began to adapt their actions to a fresh reality – and those who took power after 2020 rapidly surrounded advisors with a longer internship. No 1 always wondered what to anticipate – it was just obvious. Nor did anyone number on Trump's enemy power device in Washington to halt the first momentum of his administration by throwing logs at his entrance and in the first years of his second term. It turned out – what I was amazed too. – that the scale of Trump's victory, and the forces that have been wasted in fresh years to halt him, made his political opponents virtually powerless after losing.
Neat protests were not comparable to those of 2016. The dirty tricks of Biden's outgoing administration will most likely only come out, but this is not the case until 2016, erstwhile even before the inauguration of the fresh president, the predecessor's officials had already managed to break up his surroundings internally, and "to exclude from the game" any of his advisors, not to mention putting the ground under long-term investigation into alleged Russian influences, which effectively limited Trump's power in many respects for most of his word of office. And talking about "we are already working on" deep opposition structures among officials?
Well, undoubtedly specified structures of opposition will be there – but their ability to influence, and their readiness to fight will be much weaker. However, career is simply a career, and this time, 1 cannot simply "wait" Trump – after specified a devastating victory, it is certain not only that Trump rules today, but besides that his anointed successor will have a very, very advanced chance of "inheriting" the presidency after subsequent elections. And above all: it is certain, due to the fact that it has been repeatedly announced that Trump's denominations to various departments, as shortly as they take over power, will be hard on cleaning, that is, sweeping old deposits and enemies.
This is what makes it today, even before Trump moved back into the White House, we see the effects of his return to power. destiny wanted me to compose these words a fewer hours after announcing a truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip – a truce about which Trump had already informed the planet before the Biden administration had done so, clearly showing that not Biden's negotiators, but Trump's men forced both sides, but above all Israel, to accept the truce (which besides confirms many sources among the diplomats there). It besides made my concerns about the situation around Taiwan unfulfilled.
With a view not to chaotic but orderly change of power in the United States, China could not usage the mess to make the most convenient war in the Strait (in terms of weather) of November block Taiwan and put Americans before fait accompliBecause that mess just wasn't there. Yes, the scale of Trump's victory, the weakened opposition of his enemies, and the fact that he is now a well-known factor, made the second word start completely different from the former. But – this does not mean that Trump can implement his plans from day one. Not at all!
Back to power easier – but not easy!
Trump's second word is not at all "definite to success". Not just due to the fact that it is not said that his policies will succeed. First of all, due to the fact that before the second Trump era begins for good, he must first fill the fresh administration with his denominations, then these must sit in fresh cabinets, fill dozens of subordinate positions, who must fill further posts, and so on. Then it will be revealed how many of Trump's denominations will compromise, having a full defeat on his episode, or will be abruptly replaced for any reason by his boss, of whom the first word can be said: he has sometimes fired those whom he should have held and kept those whom he should have fired. Trump's individual policy – as well as his individual disadvantages, which made it hard for him to manage well people – drastically weakened the effectiveness of his first term, and that is surely what his opponents will be counting on today, both at home and abroad. On the another hand, during Trump's first term, he was very much projecting his complete deficiency of political experience, and his misunderstanding of the apparatus of power – so it can be assumed that having gained this experience, he will now act differently.
Meanwhile, for the time being, the legislature has begun proceeding Trump's denominations, and the speech of the questions asked to them clearly shows that the Democrats are playing a "shoot," seeking all chance to trigger a media scandal, so as to force the curious individual to withdraw, or to force at least a fewer Republican members of the majority of senators to refuse to vote. Whether it works or not, it is another substance – as long as the rhetoric of these interrogations is hot, the Democrats will not accomplish anything unless supported by a fewer Republicans, and these at the minute will be terrified of opposing the Republican president with specified a strong social mandate.
The Democrats undoubtedly hope that at least for any time they can paralyze the fresh administration at the legislature level, due to the fact that that was the case before – but this may not work completely. On the another hand, the denominations themselves may be the top threat to the origin of the old-new president, as they represent a very different quality level, both in the sphere of professional experience and moral level. It is impossible to decently realize what motivations were behind their choice – any clearly are the right people in the right place, but others... either convinced Trump of the convergence of views despite the apparent deficiency of competence, or convinced nothing, and the nomination was given for private reasons.
Either way, the political conflict to fill all the offices – not only those we hear about, but besides thousands of lower positions we don't really know – will take at least a fewer months if everything goes well. Trump, on the another hand, will gotta devote quite a few attention to this process so that it will go well, and this will draw him distant from another subjects too those that he considers essential. Incidentally, for this reason, I think (maybe I'm wrong) that those who number on abroad hands to lead to a change of government in Warsaw are vain. As long as Tusk makes appropriate service, Trump will not play a farce called “defence of democracy in Warsaw” due to the fact that the government over the Vistula will simply not be a substance of advanced rank for him.
World in second term
So what can you anticipate from the coming second term, from the position of the remainder of the world? First of all, it should be noted that abroad policy – contrary to the impression that Trump's comments on Greenland or Canada in fresh weeks could have been made – is not a key subject for the fresh president, just as it was not for his predecessor. Trump's first word was due to the fact that voters agreed with his criticism of the excessive engagement of the States in the world, a criticism that comes down to the claim that "you send our people and money to war abroad, and here factories fall and roads spoil." This message was understood by both sides of the dispute, and Biden was besides a much little "international" president than Obama, Bush, or Clinton earlier. So present America’s interior affairs will besides be the number one, two, and 3 for Trump’s second term. Of course, yes, any abroad policy issues will should be taken up – either due to the fact that they are part of Trump's home agenda, or due to the fact that they are possibly something that interests him personally, or yet are so crucial that they could not be ignored.
So, from the very beginning, the fresh Trump administration will be working to implement fresh customs duties on imports from China and from Europe, but it will also, in part, treat these duties as a bargaining component in negotiations, to which Europe in peculiar will join with very weak cards. Similarly, it can be expected that actions specified as the abandonment of climate treaties, and possibly any of the UN's agendas – this has already happened during the erstwhile word of office, and was then reversed by Biden – will be somewhere at the beginning of the list of tasks of the fresh authorities, due to the fact that these activities are closely related to interior policy.
Another key subject was, is, and of course, the competition with China will continue. Although this competition takes place for the time being primarily on trade cans – hence Trump's customs policy – the possible military confrontation will be a large topic. Here, aggressive attempts to restructure US troops can be expected to maximize deterrence. It is known that China has set itself a deadline for a 2027 confrontation, so the aim of America will be to have specified a force until then that China does not decide to fight. However, this will require sacrifices in another parts of the world, specified as further simplification of engagement in Europe. For now, it is not known whether Trump will take extremist steps here, although at least any of his advisors opt for it. Undoubtedly, however, as a minimum, he will effort all possible way to force Europe to defend itself for its own money, and at the same time to stand firm on the side of America against China, which European leaders have been trying to avoid for years.
This does not mean Trump will abandon Europe, however, as the Democrats threatened to build global support for his candidate. First of all, the issue of peace in Ukraine is simply a subject for Trump so crucial that he made it a prestigious subject for himself – announcing constantly that this war would not have been without Biden's rule, and that it would lead to peace on the first day (now it is said about the first six months), Trump will want to bring this process to an end, even if only to announce that he did. However, the subject may be very embarrassing for Trump. While it is only natural for this policy to force peace to be a threat of force, this strategy was effective for it mainly where it was essential to keep this peace – whereas the situation where Trump would force peace on a state of the Russian calibre is completely unprecedented.
There is no indication that the Russians want to agree to Trump's proposal for a truce, even though his proposals are expected to be due to the fact that we know what the various "sources" are saying, but we do not know what is truly sitting there – they are generous adequate for the Russians to presume the frost of the current state of possession. However, available sources propose that Russia has completely rejected informal proposals for negotiations around specified proposals. So, we inactive don't know anything – if Russia decides to ignore Trump, this could possibly effort to force a change of opinion on Russia by turning up arms supplies to Ukraine.
However, it is not obvious, given the weakening of the Ukrainian army, that at this phase this can be achieved without the intervention of abroad troops – and these simply cannot be seen, and surely will not be Americans. The resolution of the conflict in Ukraine so remains a large unknown, and it would not be amazing if, after a fewer months of unsuccessful attempts, not having any good solution, Trump yet decided to wash his hands off the full case, leaving Ukraine at the mercy and disfavor of Europe to focus on more crucial subjects.
Of course, apart from the above mentioned, the mediate East subject will proceed to appear. Having achieved a diplomatic triumph on the eve of the inauguration, Trump will care to keep comparative peace and possibly negociate more lasting solutions – if not between Palestinians and Israel, then at least between this country and its arabian neighbours, continuing with the first word of office. But how will the collapse of Syria be affected, and Israel’s continued efforts to bend America to at least consent to a major attack on Iran, or straight engage in such? Well, during his first tenure, Trump managed to halt specified urges, and at least in the first fewer months it doesn't seem likely that this will change.
Finally, the subject that has come up in fresh weeks, although in total, somewhere there already occurred at the end of the first term: Greenland. While the possible of an armed takeover of it, suggested by the government's media sensations, seems to be completely absurd, everything points to the fact that Greenland's subject is not any Trumpian fanatic, and will be taken seriously. Given Greenland's semi-independent status, it would not be amazing if Trump forced Greenland's “liberation” on Denmark – and with this fresh country, in fact incapable to make a financially independent existence, negotiated any form of deeper relation with the States. This does not gotta mean annexation or inclusion as a state of 53 – already present the United States is bound by association treaties specified as Micronesia or Northern Marians, and already in the past – Trump is not the first American president curious in Greenland – a akin solution has been proposed for that country. specified a task will no uncertainty neglect in a fewer months, but it may be a task on which the Trump administration will actually operate from the beginning of its word of office.
Continuation
That's about what Trump's abroad policy can be said at this stage. Ultimately, the first fewer months will be dominated by the process of forming a fresh government and then the precedence national themes. Here, let's go back to Grover Cleveland, mentioned, who is the only available pattern of President's return to power in the States.
So in Cleveland we see that the specificity of the second word being returned, alternatively than continuing, is not only a affirmative origin allowing for greater momentum at the start, but besides slowing down from the position of the President's full achievements. alternatively of implementing its policy during the first word and then perpetuating it for the second, so that its effects would be irrevocab to its successors, Cleveland had to watch with expanding irritation how, after losing his re-election, his successor “return” everything he did. So, having yet achieved a second term, Cleveland had to start over – just like Trump now.
Worse for him, in many subjects, especially in global matters, Cleveland saw that any things had already gone besides far, and the options he considered during his first word were now impossible. He devoted quite a few energy to Cleveland on, as the Anglo-Saxons say, pushing the paste back into the tube – and it is an act of its own nature that has no effect. Will that happen to Trump? Will his second word be absorbed to any degree by specified activities? Time will tell.
However, it must be said that erstwhile entering a second term, Trump has 1 advantage over Cleveland: unlike that, power reaches the point erstwhile his political opponents are so profoundly compromised and weakened, and he is so popular that if he fails to squander this popularity, he will be able to “anoint” the successor, specified as Vice president Vance, so that he can win the next election. But it's a long future that doesn't make sense to speculate for now...
Jakub Majewski
