Somebody's gonna say you don't know. Indeed, we have quite a few conflicting versions and information about this. In addition, the specified counting of losses even by the Ukrainian command is impossible – many soldiers are considered missing due to the fact that there is allegedly no confirmation of their death.
Volodymyr Zelenski He regularly declares that the success of Ukraine's Armed Forces in the war against Russia is simply a condition for further arms shipments. However, these supplies proceed (with any interruptions in the US). At the same time, there is an intensive mobilisation of Ukrainians in draft age, which is increasingly hard for average citizens to hide from. From the residual information available any analysts effort to estimation the failure of the Ukrainian army. The results are frightening – he shows that in 3 years of armed action they may have reached about a million soldiers.
The Fog of War
Of course, concealing information about individual losses and exaggerating the enemy’s losses is simply a constant part of all wars. It is perfectly natural that each side strives to lower the morale of its opponent and rise its own. That's why she won't admit her loss. However, we have quite a few analytical instruments and methods that make estimates possible. They are based on open data, as well as the occasional leaks of information from the army or from a group of government politicians.
Last November material on this subject, he published the British Head-Post portal. That's where the estimation of the million is. Portal journalists made a reasonably simple calculation. In October 2024, the Secretary of the National safety and Defence Council of Ukraine, Aleksandr Litvinenko, reported that within little than 3 years of the beginning of the current war stage, 1 650 000 Ukrainians had passed through the front. Forbes, on the another hand, wrote that about 850 1000 Ukrainian soldiers fought on the front in the autumn of the unsettled year. It is easy to calculate (demobilisation was not carried out) that the losses could have been 800,000 at the end of last year. It's about non-returnable losses, including those who have chosen to surrender or desert from the units, which we will return.
This figure surely sounds shocking. However, the U.S. president quoted akin figures Donald Trumpwho arguedthat the Ukrainian side lost 700,000 soldiers. The president of the United States is not worthy of giving higher numbers, due to the fact that they would undoubtedly attest to the complete defeat of the American side in the substitute war, which is undoubtedly Russia's clash with Ukraine. Trump would not have submitted specified data peculiarly erstwhile talking to Vladimir Putin, due to the fact that they powerfully strengthen the advantage, besides the image and negotiation, of Moscow.
The authorities in Kiev, in turn, go to the other extreme. On February 17 Zelenski said in interview for the American NBC that Ukrainian losses are only 46 000 killed and 380 000 injured. In February 2024 the same Zelenski He said publically that Ukraine lost 31,000 killed soldiers. Given the level of strength of clashes during that year, however, it is hard to believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost only 15,000 soldiers.
No wonder we hear these authoritative messages. Authorities in Kiev are afraid of further decline and so disastrously low morale. This is especially evident after the defeat of the raid on the course circuit. Statements Ukrainian soldiers, who managed – frequently on their own – to retreat from the Russian lap around Suja, sounded rather unambiguous: there were scenes there like from the bloodiest horror movies.
A wave of desertion
At the same time, the Ukrainian army collides with another problem. More and more soldiers are people from street captures who were forced to go to the front. Many of them are completely unprepared, untrained. On the front they last virtually a fewer days. Many of them are aware of the low probability of survival. They draw the only rational conclusion: they desert or leave military units voluntarily. All the more so in the last time they hear about a possible ceasefire. Nobody wants to die in vain at the end of the war.
Head-Post portal already mentioned wroteThat by November 2024, 170 000 soldiers had deserted from the army. Ukrainian authors and journalists provided even more. According to a writer fighting on the front, Vladimir Boyka, about 200,000 Ukrainians decided to desert and self-voluntarily. akin data presented Ukrainian lawyer, Władysław Mikhailenko. The trend grew with further military defeats of Kiev and a simplification in the level of training of fresh waves of mobilized Ukrainians. How informed "The fresh York Times", only between January and September 2024, voluntarily left their units 51,000 soldiers. 7 November last year "The Economist" informedthat 20% of Ukrainian soldiers decide to desert.
American “The National Interest” wrote In turn, the fact that, contrary to the absolute ban on men of draft age outside Ukraine, many Ukrainians, risking their lives, cross the green border in the mountains to Romania, or flow the border river Cisa, even in winter months. Many of these desperate attempts to get out of Ukraine simply did not survive.
Twilight of the Ukrainian Army
How else can we estimation Ukrainian losses in this war? You can analyse various data, compile them and draw logical conclusions from it. Veteran combat and erstwhile battalion commander ‘Ajdar’, Evgeny Dikij spoke late in interview for the Ukrainian NW radio, that the authorities mobilize 1 and a half times less soldiers than losses. "The fresh York Times" claims that Kiev mobilizes around 20,000 fresh conscripts per month. If we put together these numbers, it's easy. countthat the monthly Ukrainian losses in this case are not little than 30,000 killed and injured.
Blood months of year 2025
If Ukrainian losses could have been around a million at the end of last year, how many now? It is hard to say, but remember that the past fewer weeks are a bloodbath sent by Ukrainian army commander Alexander Syrski thousands of soldiers in the territory of the Russian Kursk region. Let us add that if we had not failed to deal with human losses, these soldiers could have been evacuated much earlier, due to the fact that the situation was clearly hopeless. However, Kiev is trying to proceed to carry out suicide operations, specified as last week erstwhile Ukrainian troops attempted a hopeless breach in the Russian Federation, this time in the Biłgorod region.
Let us presume that these losses are inactive 30,000 people per month. For 4 months, that gives us 120,000, so in that case we would have over a million Ukrainian casualties of this war. Let's compare. In planet War I, about 2 million Poles served in the armies of 3 invaders. About 450,000 died, which is simply a small little than a quarter. Zelenski saysthat about 880 1000 soldiers are presently fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If that is the case, the Ukrainian army has already suffered losses greater than its current state. This would explain the desperate attempts to mobilise in any way.
In this light, it becomes logical to rush Washington to bring about a ceasefire. In the Trump administration, most likely everyone is aware of the scale of Ukrainian losses. That's why they realize that no weapons supply can compensate for the holes on the front line and they won't diametrically alter the power system. You gotta know erstwhile to back out, due to the fact that the case is clearly lost.
Andrzej Dołęga
