In warfare, there is seldom a phenomenon that can be described as “miracles” or unexplained events. War art mostly resembles strict science: with certain conditions (X + Y) and the usage of a circumstantial maneuver (Z), the consequence is highly predictable.
The Russian-Ukrainian War – due to its comparative balance of potentials and the fact that it is simply a high-intensity substitute conflict between the Russian Federation and the NATO bloc supporting Ukraine – mostly adopted the nature of the static war. The dynamics of the front and limited maneuverability of land troops show analogy to the realities of planet War I.
However, periodically there are factors that importantly increase or, on the contrary, lead to inhibition.
The introduction of precision artillery systems by Ukraine, with the support of the United States, was an example of a dynamic factor. HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System). This enabled the key infrastructure facilities, including Antonowski Bridge on the Dniepore close Cherson, the railway bridge and crossings on the crown of the barrier in Kachowce. Their temporary exclusion broke the supply lines of the Russian group on the right bank of Dniepr and in November 2022 forced the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson – the largest city occupied by Russia in the first phase of the war.
We are presently seeing a reverse phenomenon – customly advanced effectiveness of the Russian army. In the last month, the Russian forces captured 3 Ukrainian cities: Siewiersk, Volchansk and Hulaipole, and besides approached the mastery of 2 more centres.
So the key question is: what fresh origin has emerged on the Russian side, which has so clearly undermined the effectiveness of Ukraine's armed forces? Personnel shortages, intense aerial bombings or artillery advantage are not fresh phenomena – they have besides occurred before. However, Ukrainians, based on extended fortifications and advanced morale, were able to defend the fortress cities for many months, as in the case of Awdijiwka, Jaru and Torecka.
The answer lies in the mass appearance of the Russian equivalent of HIMARS – a strategy that can be contractually referred to as “Russian GLLRS”.
Evolution of Russian long-range rocket artillery
The Russian Federation inherited from the USSR heavy, undirected rocket artillery systems of 300 mm BM-30 Death scope up to 70 km. The successes of Western precision weapons prompted Russian command to begin work on a akin system. As a result, after many years of testing, around 2017 the introduction of the upgraded variant BM-30, called 9K515 Tornado-S, was approved in service, with the first brigade being re-armed only in 2020.
The Tornado-S strategy uses 9M544 and 9M549, guided by data from the Russian satellite positioning strategy GLONASS. The declared accuracy of these missiles was to be 7–15 m CEP, while older 9M55 projectiles of the Death strategy were characterized by a 150 m defect. However, the combat practice showed that the actual accuracy of Tornado-S guided missiles was importantly worse than the declared one, especially at higher distances.
By February 2022, only a fewer Russian rocket artillery brigades had been re-armed in the Tornado-S, and the available ammunition supplies – mostly cluster ones – were limited. Furthermore, a crucial part of Russian front ammunition retention facilities was destroyed in the summertime and autumn of 2022 as a consequence of precise strokes by Ukrainian HIMARS systems and M270 MLRS/MARS, supplied by the US, large Britain, Germany and France.
In time, however, the Russians managed to integrate unmanned reconnaissance systems with rocket artillery into 1 coherent "decision context". This allowed for the occasional but effective impact of Tornado-S in surface-based targets: chopper landing bays, OPL batteries, ammunition depots, echeloned railways, or troop groupings on the ground. Although CEP grew with a distance of up to 50–70 m, this was adequate to inflict losses and disorganization. The usage of shrapnel blasting heads was non-target under these conditions.
Ammunition 9M542 — actual ‘game chainer’
The breakthrough took place with the improvement by the Russian manufacture of a fresh guided ammunition – a 300 mm 9M542 caliber rocket with a shrapnel-burning head, intended for the 9K515 Tornado-S strategy and its introduction to mass production (cost and long lasting).
The characteristics of this ammunition importantly changed the reality of the battlefield:
A warhead weighing about 150 kg, containing about 70 kg of explosive material, about 500 pre-formed fragments weighing 50 g, scope up to 120 km, real confirmed in combat conditions CEP below 10 m even at 100 km distance.
In conjunction with an extended network of reconnaissance drones, transmitting precise geolocation data in close proximity to the real time, Russian rocket artillery has gained the ability to rapidly and precisely destruct point targets at a depth of 120 km!
Mobile Tornado-S launchers, embedded on a four-axis MAZ-79111 chassis, operate from distances beyond the scope of Ukrainian MLRS systems, HIMARS and most impact drones.
The consequence was to destruct the detected targets with highly advanced efficiency – from the positions of FPV drone operators, to reinforced facilities in urban buildings. 9M542 projectile impacts led to complete demolition of buildings, eliminating crews and equipment, and thus eliminating "safe zones" within the fortress cities.
Conclusion
Although there are radioelectronic countermeasures capable of interfering with satellite guidance systems – as the Russians effort to affect the GMLRS rockets – until effective countermeasures are developed against 9M542 Russian rocket artillery uses a clear operational window.
It was this factor, not any "miracles", that enabled the Russian army to scope a local breakthrough and to conquer 3 Ukrainian cities in December 2025.
Krzysztof Podgórski
