Outside the window, spring broke out in its life-giving splendour, and the full planet as if encouraged to climb to the top of the awakened volcano, falling into uncertainty about what would happen next. It is already hot, from trying to block globalisation through the start of a customs war, stopping China's increasing power, through the stalemate in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, to the force to halt the Iranian atomic program. Everywhere the revolutionary Trump dominates with his desire to halt the dangers threatening America's welfare, attempting to reset in the area of planet economics, trade and planet order. Nobody knows yet what chances Trump has for reset both in his own country and in planet politics, for at this time we are in the eye of the unleashed forces of the cyclone. 1 thing is certain that he took on his shoulders a immense burden and for the finalization of his plans has truly small time, about 1.5 years until the upcoming elections. The question is if he can kind things out by then.
The commentators go crazy, any make the hope of fast normalization, others a imagination of an impending cataclysm. They thunder warnings of the inflexibility of Xi and red China flowing out of 5,000 years of past forgetting that it was brutally destroyed and erased from the memory and life of the Chinese by the Mao Communists. They inform against Trump's dangerous radicalism, which, like “a monkey with a razor” directs the planet order into a abyss. Trump's real goal seems to be to swing China productively by American capital and business, filling the planet with its exports (about 40% of the world's production). The customs war may prove to be Trump's “customs” weapon. Chinese Xi threatened to endanger his “soyants” not to enter customs negotiations with Trump, and in fresh days he made respective trips to Asia, but the attempts to build a common front against Trump failed.
America's biggest asset is its absorbent market, which consumes as much as 38% of global exports and the Chinese know well that specified an absorbent marketplace will not find anywhere. Chinese economy goes on export (like German) and accounts for 2⁄3 of American economics. Of course, China has a communist dictatorship akin to the fascist government (a leader, a party, elements of the free market) and officially the growth of their economy is 5%, but it can be inserted between fairy tales, experts rate it at 0% or below. According to analysts, the cost of production in China represents 1⁄5 of the cost of production in the US, while the cost of production in India is 1⁄5 of the cost in China, which is why American business is from China to India. China has not only “adapted” American technology, but besides due to American tariffs for respective years has moved production to cheaper Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, or even Mexico, so Trump has imposed higher tariffs and on these countries.
As a consequence of Trump's revolutionary tactics to offset customs duties in trade with another countries, there has been stalemate and massive fluctuations on the US stock exchange as well as on the securities market. It is known that the U.S. imports more products than exports, which gives a negative trade balance, an increase in government debt, which is financed by the sale of taxation certificates at a fixed percentage. America has a failure of export value over imports (in the last year $1.21 trillion) and refers to production goods, but otherwise it is about exporting services in which the US has a surplus with all countries including China, the EU, Canada and Mexico. In 2024 this surplus was $293 billion (more than the erstwhile year by 5%). By services we realize everything that does not come from factories, mines, farms, or oil and gas. This sale of banking, tourism, insurance, amusement services is presently at hazard of global public unrest over the customs war.
We know that the more the country becomes developed, the more in its economy the services dominate the production. No longer dominates Ford Motors, General Motors, or General Electric, but Microsoft, Apple, JPMorgan, or Hollywood, which sale well worldwide. So in a period of uncertainty, antagonisms can most and most rapidly lose. The number of tourist exchanges from and to America is already decreasing, likewise with Tesla cars, whose sales fell 76% in Germany, 45% in France, or 55% in Italy. In addition, the cost of production comes erstwhile Biden even raised duties on Chinese solar panels, a boom was created for American panels, but shortly their cost to the client led to the bankruptcy of 3 American producers. Of course, the Chinese have created companies with Vietnam and another countries thus circumventing American sanctions. About 1.3 million workers find employment in car dealerships in the US (services), and only 1 million in car and parts production. In view of the duties, this situation may be reversed.
In the US, a immense number of 1.1 million abroad students study, accounting for about 7% of all students. They pay full-time for education, housing and food, which brings good income to universities. any of them stay after their visa to stay in the US expires, the Trump administration will remove them, which in turn will not make incentives to inflow more students and reduce university income. all year he studies about 300,000 students from China.
Revenues in the tourism, hotel and culinary industries are falling, counted in trillions of dollars. According to Tourism Economics this year you can anticipate a decrease in the influx of tourists to the US by about 9.4%, including 20.2% from Canada. This company estimates a decrease in turnover in tourist service by $9 billion this year. The revolution costs...
It is no secret that Trump's customs war blade is aimed at dominant China's worldwide production, which then spend their immense surplus trade on accelerated reinforcements threatening their neighbors in the US defence alliance. At the same time, these China, which has been a associate of the planet Trade Organisation (WTO) since 2000, are urgently guarding and blocking their marketplace through customs, and Trump, who now wants to force the beginning of the Chinese marketplace into free trade, is most dissatisfied. That is why Trump suspended the introduction of his duties on all countries of the planet for 90 days giving time for negotiations. With the exception of China, for which most products were even subject to duties ranging from 124% to 245%, while China responded with duties ranging from 125%. Trump simultaneously excluded Chinese imports from customs for electronic components, computers, phones, integrated circuits for a period of 1 month, seemingly to give time to transfer production from China to businesses specified as Microsoft, Apple or Nvidia. In response, China stopped exports of rare-earth metals to the US (they have a monopoly of up to 90% of production), needed for electronics and the defence industry.
The biggest weapon in Trump's customs war is not the amount of duties that we have seen changing, whether a mess has arisen, but paralyzing created uncertainty for the producers of goods. In this situation, U.S. orders for Chinese goods disappear, the celebrated Chinese export production dies, there are factories, there are container ships supplying goods to America, aircraft carrying goods, and workers not receiving wages protest and even sometimes set fire to factories. Let us remind that above 15% of Chinese exports go to the US, and the next “great” recipient of Chinese exports (without Hong Kong) is Vietnam with 4% (!). Let us add that Chinese home consumption accounts for only 11%, compared to 35% in the US, so there is no chance of redirecting the product produced for export to home consumption.
Trump, in his style, reported that the State Treasury had collected a evidence sum of $11.7 billion in customs on April 22 suggesting that if he went so far he would be able to lower taxes more for Americans. Of course, not only the Chinese endure from the resulting situation, it dies down the activity of a immense cargo port in Los Angeles, the crisis severely hits US carriers of Chinese goods. immense warehouses have resources for 2-3 months, then shelves in stores can look like in late PRL. These are the costs of globalisation that led to the deindustrialization of America...
As I mentioned above, the stock marketplace is dancing, people are investing in gold that will greatly increase. In a year and a half elections to Congress, which usually loses the presidential party, in 3.5 years presidential elections. Economics and immigration prevailed in fresh elections. Trump dealt with open borders, stopped inflation, and worked hard on economics, trying to halt globalisation and reconstruct sovereignty in terms of production.
In consequence to Trump's moves, the Chinese appealed to Mao's tradition and said that they would neglect and would not negociate fresh agreements with Trump. Trump in turn says he's already spoken to Xi Jinping respective times. 1 of the largest newspapers in South Korea. JoongAng Ilbo confirmed the conversation of a 10-person Chinese delegation from the Ministry of Finance at the Treasury Department building in Washington.
Sanctions, customs, can be celebrated in a variety of ways, the best example of which are sanctions imposed on Russian oil, the west now buys “Kazakh” oil and Putin uses tankers of the “grey” fleet selling oil to fund the war with Ukraine. Similarly, for any time now the Chinese have been supplying their products first to lower-priced Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico, or Malaysia, there the goods are repacked, or yet folded with the country's brand. Experts believe that Chinese exports to the US give jobs to 10 to 20 million Chinese and if this war continues the Chinese export-based economy collapses.
The officially-designed growth of Chinese GDP in 2025 to 5%, was reduced to 4%, and will most likely fall further. Unemployment among young Chinese (between 16-24 years) reaches 17% of what may be problem for the Communist organization of China. Global trade has been on the operating table for 90 years and it is not known if it will survive.
In early May Trump will halt duty-free import of packages worth little than $800 sent from China and Hong Kong straight to customers in the US. The Chinese losses (including aircraft transport) are calculated at $22 billion over the next 3 years. There is simply a serious suspicion that the Chinese are utilizing this strategy to send deadly fentanyl to the US and number Trump to halt it. This will break down popular Chinese companies specified as Temu, Alibaba, or Shein, this kind of e-commerce accounts for about 50% of the transportation of Chinese goods to the US. due to customs, Chinese trade will last a major crisis.
So Trump's goal is to seriously weaken Communist China, increase US energy production, which in turn will spread Putin and Iran's revenue. Not to extend, next time I'll compose about the size of China's increasing power.
California, 2025/04/28
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