Israel's attack on Lebanon is simply an introduction to the escalation of Iran's war effort. The analysts agree on this. "Nasrallah's execution is not simply killing a individual in a advanced managerial position; it is, in short, an Israeli-American declaration to start the process of strangling an "Iran octopus" by dismembering its arms (...), and then focusing on eliminating the head erstwhile it loses all its means of power," commented Jewish-American writer Ali Hashem.
A writer who has been reporting events in the mediate East for 15 years recalled the message of Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant. In 1 of the last speeches, the head of the military department said that “Israel is fighting an Iranian octopus whose head is in Tehran and her arms are trying to hit us.”
Although the assassination of Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah "unquestionably put a sword to Iran's throat, who not only lost a powerful ally and leader, considered part of his body, but besides the spear of his offensive force and the first line of defence of Axis of Resistance," this does not mean that the militants of the formation became defenseless.
The Lebanese militia, which has always faced many crises, rapidly managed to elect fresh leadership after the assassination of Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and the start of Israel's war with Lebanon on the night of September 31, 2024. A sober reaction besides translated into conflict action. Hezbollah regained control on the battlefield and directs rocket attacks against Tel-Awiw. It besides clashes with Israel’s troops deployed by the border with Lebanon.
Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem in his first speech after the assassination of Nasrallah on September 27 raised the subject of Hezbollah's command and control system. He promised to keep continuity of the structure according to alternate scenarios. He confirmed Hezbollah's position that he would not retreat from the position of confrontation with Israel, supporting Gaza and responding to the assassinations.
Ali Hashem expects the next mark of the judaic attack to be Iranian atomic objects. Moreover, from the very beginning, Benjamin Netanjah's goal was in fact to strike Iran. The deficiency of "real deterrence" will only increase his determination and assurance to accomplish this objective.
Netanjahu is besides trying to lead to an uprising in Iran, promising opposition (a September 30 peculiar statement) a bright future if they only rebel against the government and quit alliances with countries active in rivalry for influence in the mediate East.
Israel's leader consistently strives to escalate the war and has encountered nothing that could deter him. He killed more Palestinians, Lebanese, Hamas leaders, Hezbollah and Iran's muslim Revolution defender Corps (IRGC) than any of its predecessors.
"Just as the cost of not responding is much higher than the cost of reacting – as Netanjah proved through actions, not words – excessive talking and unfulfilled threats consequence in destructive intellectual warfare (...). In the absence of Nasrallah, (...) a man who could persuade his followers to any direction in which he was heading—words will have a advanced price if they are not supported by action. This will increase the cost of what is coming for everyone, without exception. The train is moving, and passengers, regardless of the direction in which they are going – including those who are ideologically opposed – are bound by those who lead and securely scope the next station," comments the analyst.
He adds that the challenge is no longer in the sphere of tactics, and there is no point in winning the U.S. elections. Theoretizing on "the concept of strategical patience in facing war and saving resources for a conflict whose time is not dictated by the enemy" is pointless, says the journalist. War is an inevitable future.
“ What is happening now speaks for itself. The most crucial conclusion is that Israel and its allies decided to go to the end without leaving, or leaving Iran small area to preserve its strategical capacity for the day erstwhile war can scope its borders," Hashem points out.
Similarly, Eldar Mamedov, who has no uncertainty that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese Shiite militia, has given a final blow to all chances of renewed relaxation between the United States and Europe on the 1 hand and Iran on the other.
"The Israeli attack came only a fewer days after Iran's Reformary president Massoud Pezeshkian spoke at the UN General Assembly in fresh York about his desire to re-engage in the Western affairs, and his experienced abroad policy team, including those who negotiated the 2015 atomic agreement (JCPOA), specified as Vice president for strategical Affairs Javad Zarif, abroad Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi and erstwhile Ambassador to the UN Takht Ravanchi, were busy re-establishing contacts with their western counterparts to discuss prospects for a revival of diplomacy," we read.
Nasrallah's execution was a blow to that perspective. And the attack on Lebanese Hezbollah, who has long served as a deterrent to Israel's assault on Iran's territory, in peculiar on its atomic infrastructure, will not completely destruct Hezbollah, due to the deep roots of the organization in the Lebanese Shiite community. However, it is to degrade the organization and "open the window of chance for Tel Aviv to attack Iran at the minute of its perceived weakness". Among another things, he suggested the son-in-law of Donald Trump, Jared Kushner, arguing that the deficiency of decisive action for Israel would now be “irresponsible”.
Israel's leaders believe that they have an chance that happens erstwhile a generation to change the form of the mediate East. In starting a "limited" land offensive in Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear that he wanted to change power in Tehran and deprive Iranians of the ability to sponsor and train Hamas in Gaza as well as Lebanese Hezbollah. Netanjahu promised the "nobility of the Persian nation" that the day erstwhile they would be freed from the regulation of the "tyranns" and be able to enter into peace with Israel will come "far faster than men think." He added that "there is no place in the mediate East that Israel could not reach."
Until recently, the disastrous public opinion polls for Netanjah have been increasing since Nasrallah was killed. He has all political reason to prolong the offensive and ignore calls for ceasefire.
Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo publically calls for the continuation of the military run to reformat the mediate East. It expects that Tehran's most crucial regional ally will not regain control of Lebanon as it has since the 2006 war with Israel.
However, many inform Israel that despite its first successes, it is incapable to supply a "strategic path" to warrant the safety of the people of Israel.
Source: amwaj.media, responsivestatecraft.org, politico.eu
AS
