On Sunday at 21:00, the first circular of presidential elections ended. Although exit polls indicate the triumph of Rafał Trzaskowski, the overall image of the results gives no reason for optimism for Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the ruling camp. erstwhile we look at the full support for candidates on the right side of the political scene, the government’s disturbing trend — the advantage of the right-wing electorate.
Exit poll: the minimum advantage of Trzaskowski
Both in the survey for tv Republika and in the poll conducted by Ipsos for TVP, TVN and Polsatu, first place was placed by Rafał Trzaskowski. However, his advantage over Karol Nawrocki — a candidate supported by Law and Justice and the president of the IPN — is insignificant. The difference between the first and second candidates oscillates around 1 percent point.
Exit poll for tv Republic:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 31.6%.
- Karol Nawrocki – 29.8%.
- Sławomir Mentzen – 14 percent.
- Adrian Zandberg – 6 percent.
- Grzegorz Braun – 5.4 percent.
- Simon Holovnia – 4.7 percent.
- Magdalena Biejat – 4.4 percent.
- Krzysztof Stanowski – 1.3%.
- Joanna Senyszyn – 1.3%.
- Marek Jakubiak – 0.7%.
- Artur Bartoszewicz – 0.5%.
- Maciej Maciak – 0.2 percent.
- Marek Woch – 0.1 percent.
Exit poll for TVP, TVN and Polsatu (Ipsos):
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 30.8%.
- Karol Nawrocki – 29.1%.
- Sławomir Mentzen – 15.4%.
- Grzegorz Braun – 6.2 percent.
- Adrian Zandberg – 5.2 percent.
- Simon Holownia – 4.8 percent.
- Magdalena Biejat – 4.1 percent.
- Krzysztof Stanowski – 1.3%.
- Joanna Senyszyn – 1.3%.
- Marek Jakubiak – 0.8%.
- Artur Bartoszewicz – 0.5%.
- Maciej Maciak – 0.4%.
- Marek Woch – 0.1 percent.
Total support: Right wins with left and government coalition
However, it is most interesting to think about the summary that the media made on the basis of the polling results. According to a survey conducted by Ipsos, opposition candidates of the right-wing pedigree — Karol Nawrocki, Sławomir Mentzen, Grzegorz Braun and Marek Jakubiak — captured until 51.5 percent Voices. Meanwhile, candidates associated with leftist parties and government — Rafał Trzaskowski, Adrian Zandberg, Szymon Hołownia, Magdalena Biejat and Joanna Senyszyn — obtained a full 46.2% support.
This means that despite the triumph of Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round, the possible of right-wing electorate in Poland inactive outweighs this supporting current government. Moreover, Karol Nawrocki's score – close to the leader – and Sławomir Mentzen's 3rd position show that right-wing forces can play a key function in the second round.
What about the campaign?
For Donald Tusk and the Civic Coalition, presidential elections become not only a fight for the office of President, but besides for political leadership. Although formally Tusk is not a candidate, the consequence of his camp will be perceived as a political plebiscite of support for the government.
A tiny advantage of Rafał Trzaskowski may not be adequate in the second circular if voters Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun vote for Karol Nawrocki. In this scenario, the current opposition may reverse the result in its favour.
In this case, it should be stressed that the presidential elections disagree importantly from the parliamentary elections, both in terms of procedure and legal effects. 1 of the key differences is the deficiency of a presumption of validity of presidential elections, which, unlike parliamentary elections, must be approved by the ultimate Court (Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland).
In accordance with Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland:
“The validity of the president of the Republic’s election is stated by the ultimate Court.”
This work is presently being exercised by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the ultimate Court. In view of the case-law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (e.g. Case C-585/18, C-624/18 and C-625/18) and of the European Court of Human Rights (e.g. Case C-585/18), and of the European Court of Human Rights (e.g. Case C-585/18), Reczkowicz p. Poland, complaint No 43447/19), it is indicated that this Chamber does not meet the standards of an independent and impartial court established by the Act. It includes persons appointed with gross violations of the regulation of law and constitutional procedures, including the engagement of a body called "neo-KRS", whose legality has been undermined by many judgments of national and global courts.
Therefore, regardless of the result of the second circular of the presidential election – regardless of whether candidate A or candidate B win – a major legal problem arises. The question of the legality of the body liable for the determination of the validity of the elections may lead to a situation where the ruling of the ultimate Court is not deemed to have been given by a court established in accordance with the law. Consequently, this may prevent the elected president from taking office effectively, as Article 130 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland states that the president shall take office after taking his oath to the National Assembly, which requires prior determination of the validity of the election.
Such a situation could lead to serious constitutional chaos and destabilisation of state bodies. In utmost cases, it can be utilized by policy makers to introduce extraordinary constitutional measures specified as emergency or even martial law (based on Articles 229 to 234 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland), which poses a serious hazard to the legal order and democratic strategy of the state.
Continued here:
Right hand stronger than government? The presidential election polls are a cold shower for Tusk
