If the full 2026 year turns out to be as dynamic as January, then we have a truly turbulent time. The events started a year ago seem to be temporing. Hossa on silver and gold continues, Donald Trump enjoys a weakening dollar and is importantly approaching taking full control of Greenland. Following an agreement with the Mercosur countries, the European Union has turned to India, and the situation in Iran is becoming more tense all month. Welcome to a review of the key events of January!
Amazing rally of silver and gold
Not so long ago, due to the fact that in early October I wrote about the coming of possible adjustments on gold and silver, while remaining optimistic about these metals in the longer term. Indeed, a fewer weeks later, the 2 aggregates suffered about 10% of the fall. However, I did not anticipate that then we would come to experience specified strong growth again. At the time of writing this article, silver promises to pierce not 90 or 100, but as much as $120 per ounce, and gold pierced $5500 per ounce. These are evidence values that should at first glance signify a fast correction (which in the case of gold seems to materialize now). However, for example, silver has already shown that it is based on actions to break its price.
Whenever silver counted massive increases, the COMEX exchange, where future contracts are traded for “paper” silver, raised the value of margins. specified action effectively stopped the rally of silver gold in 2011 and broke its prices for many years. This time, despite an 80% increase in required deposits, the price of silver continued to rise. This is due to the fact that the silver on COMEX follows prices from the Shanghai stock exchange, which trades physical metal, and there metallic quotations stay at importantly higher levels than in the west. This means that the shortage of silver and the prospects of its usage in manufacture have a stronger impact on price than marketplace regulation.
Blood protests in Iran. Country on the brink of conflict with the US
Just last year, we witnessed an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which ended in a short military engagement with the US. No 1 thought that the United States' attack on Iran's atomic bases would lead to a cool mood. On the contrary. With the beginning of 2026, the situation in the mediate East seems to be the most unstable in decades.
Protests in Iran. Source: El Pais
Iran, facing the effects of sanctions, advanced inflation and unemployment, has become the site of further bloody events. It all started with a bazaar strike in Tehran. The Iranian Rial weakened so much against the dollar that trade became impossible – traders would alternatively close shops than lose money in devaluation. Importantly, merchants are rather a conservative group in the country, supporting power. Their announcement of the strike became a catalyst for the outbreak of a powerful wave of protests aimed straight at Chamenei's regime. The level of opposition has been top since the 1979 muslim Revolution, as riots erupted in as many as 4000 locations.
As a result, power went to final steps. She closed the borders, shut down the Internet, and then began slaughtering her own citizens. authoritative reports say 30,000 deaths in just a fewer days. specified drastic measures are sought by those who feel threatened. This situation has given the United States an excuse to attack. Trump's words "help is on the way" and the following movements of the US troops made the fresh armed conflict in the mediate East very real.
Eventually Donald Trump withdrew, and Iran reported ready to talk. At the same time, the U.S. Navy with the powerful aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the lead, remains ready to take steps. This situation is alternatively complicated, as it is not about justice for the bloody crimes of the regime, but about a cold calculation of profits and losses.
According to intelligence, the position of government in Iran has been the weakest in years, and there is besides an interior conflict for power. The U.S. so faces an chance to set the political situation in Iran under its own interests and to destruct their atomic program. The problem is that the United States cannot get active in a long and bloody conflict, hence apparent caution. In addition, there is simply a hazard of retaliation from a country that is not a state of dictate, like Venezuela. Iran may block the Ormuz Strait, and it besides has much greater military capabilities.
So all that's active is simply a fast hit, announcement of success and evacuation. In this way, the US would show their strength and effectively subjugate further regions, which are known for their cooperation with their main rival – China. This preemptive action would give the US an advantage, but it could besides show its opponents that it is not worth taking the initiative to fight for global influence.
The dollar continues to weaken. Trump doesn't see the problem
The last year was marked by a clear downward trend for the American currency. Suffice it to say that in 2025 we had been dealing with the worst half of the dollar in 52 years, as Marcin Kremec wrote on our blog in July. He pointed out that after specified a bad 6 period period, it is possible to strengthen the dollar in the short term, or at least halt the downward trend. It did so, as the dollar index increased from the July gap by little than 2% by the end of the year.
Someone would say that nothing happens twice, much little 2 years in a row, but the beginning of 2026 is marked by a further devaluation of the world's most crucial currency. Few, as shown in the illustration below, the DXY has reached its lowest level in 4 years. What caused the terrible beginning of the year?
Source: X.com
Investors' concerns about the future of the Fed, and specifically its fresh president, to be elected mid-year, remain. There are many indications that this could be an utmost political nomination, which will contribute to drastic interest rate cuts, and this in turn would weaken assurance in the dollar. To this should be added the latest information on the anticipation for the US to impose additional duties on Canada and South Korea. and information that the U.S. would intervene in the currency to save the devaluationary yen. specified a process would be to get free of dollars by the Fed and buy yen, and, as is known, higher supply would mean a lower price. That is why the reaction to this news is so tense – if the government wants a weak dollar, why should investors believe in strengthening it?
In the face of these events (and we are only talking about performing alleged rate checks, i.e. checking current exchange rates by the central bank, which is only a informing signal indicating the anticipation of currency intervention) Donald Trump asked if the dollar had fallen besides hard, he replied that the dollar was doing great. It is simply a clear signal that the current power has no problem with the further weakening of their currency.
So much indicates that the dollar may be waiting for another hard half-year. The time limit appears to be the choice of a fresh FED president and his possible ability to drastically reduce interest rates. specified a script is not yet foregone, as Trump and his surroundings may not gain an advantage in the Open marketplace Council, which approves interest rates, as Krzysztof Miazga discussed in item during the second day of our conference. Thus, 2026 may prove to be akin to the erstwhile dollar.
Cash is quietly disappearing
On many occasions, our blog has published texts that item the importance of having cash. Unfortunately, the share of cash transactions in full transactions in Poland is gradually decreasing from year to year and amounts to 31% (as of 2025). It is simply more convenient for people to make close-up payments or to usage the revolutionary Polish solution, the BLIK system. Until no 1 uses digitalisation for a bad purpose, we can feel free to do so, but if we lead to a situation where cash disappears from circulation through our inactivity, in case of problems we can only resent ourselves for a deficiency of cash alternative. fresh information indicates that cash will proceed to fade quietly.
As of February, cash withdrawal from ATMs will increase due to fresh commissions imposed by Visa and MasterCard. Previously, the payment fee from the ATM was fixed (PLN 1.3 in the case of Visa) or the off-base percent was tiny (PLN 1.20 + 0.05% in the case of MasterCard). From now on, both operators announced that the strategy would be based on a basis (PLN 1.20) plus an even higher percent than the amount paid (0.17%). For example, at the payment of PLN 1 1000 the cost of commission will be PLN 3, i.e. practically twice as much as before.
This is due to the fact that people are increasingly utilizing ATMs. Their number fell in Poland in the year by 5.5%. In this way, we fall into a vicious circle, where increasingly higher charges for the usage of ATMs will become more and more discouraging, which will rise commissions again and shift traffic towards non-cash transactions. Therefore, we call for the usage of cash as frequently as possible in regular transactions, even at the expense of convenience. due to the fact that we won't miss the cash until we lose the chance to usage it, and all transaction we make is closely followed.
Great affair at the heights of power in China
Meanwhile, a powerful political earthquake has just occurred in the mediate State. General Zhang Youxia, the second most crucial individual in the country immediately after Xi Jinping, a man who was besides a friend of the president from childhood, heard a number of allegations, including spying on the US. First of all, it was to supply the American people with key data on the Chinese atomic program. In addition, he is accused of building a political clique and a network of influences aimed at weakening the unity of the communist party, thus de facto destabilising the state. He was besides to accept bribes in exchange for circumstantial military appointments and political positions.
General Zhang Youxia. Source: Newsweek
Back in 2024, Bloomberg, as part of a controlled leak, provided information that there was water in part of the long-range liquid fuel-powered rockets, and many of them are made of inferior quality materials. Additionally, rocket silos were to have defective flaps, which worsened the Chinese army's ability to act immediately. From somewhere American intelligence had to gain this knowledge, and seeing today's confusion at the heights of power, we can guess from where.
The scale of the scandal is unprecedented. There was almost full cleansing at the heights of power. Xi Jinping threw out Rocket Force Command, removed the Minister of Defense, not to mention General Zhang. Ultimately, only 2 of the 7 members of the erstwhile members remained in the key Central Military Commission. Their positions were appointed technology specialists (e.g. Gen. Wang Houbin of Rocket Forces), which shows that China focuses more on the maritime and technological war, alternatively than the land war on which the old staff were raised.
Xi could usage this situation to make changes in his surroundings and strengthen his position during the conflict with the US. Nevertheless, the degree of penetration into the structure of the Chinese government by American intelligence is astonishing and a valuable lesson for another countries.
Great Britain was eavesdropping...China
However, it is not that China is just a victim of alien intelligence. They are active in this field, and we would most likely be amazed what information they might have access to. An example is, for example, the last information about how the mediate State managed to penetrate British power structures. Well, Chinese state hackers had access for at least 4 years to private talks between close collaborators of the 3 British prime ministers, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunaka. Key advisors or chiefs of staff were eavesdropped.
This allowed the Chinese to have access to plans for Ukraine, or sanctions for their own country and another Western activities. Interestingly, this was not discovered by British intelligence, and it was only due to the fact that it detected akin hacks to the Verizon and AT&T networks in the US (these attacks were aimed at Trump's surroundings). This information ran the media just moments before Prime Minister Starmer's journey to China, hence most likely the government's restrained consequence to these revelations. This situation clearly shows how crucial the rule of limited trust is, but can besides strengthen isolationist tendencies. We are entering an era where software will gain nationality and will only be utilized within a circumstantial alliance or state. An example could be a fresh EU initiative to usage European counterparts known to all communicators. Is this gonna work? We'll see, but all step of the way, you can see us entering the era of rival powers.
Free trade for 2 billion people. EU-India Agreement
It was not so long ago that it was very loud about the European Union's agreement with Mercosur countries and its consequences for European (including Polish) farmers. It was yet signed, with Europarlament sending it to the Court of Justice (TSEU), so theoretically, the ratification process should be suspended for up to 2 years. However, there is simply a chance that the European Commission will decide to implement the commercial part of the agreement temporarily, which would most likely be the origin of further interior disputes in the EU. Yet, a somewhat more, even larger trade deal appeared unexpectedly, which could affect the lives of up to 2 billion people.
The European Commission, with the mouth of Ursula Von Der Leyen, announced an agreement with India which led to the creation of a fresh free trade agreement. It has been announced as a large success and indeed, in my opinion, it is surely more advantageous than the 1 signed with the countries of South America. Above all, products specified as beef, poultry, sugar and rice have been excluded from the agreement, so that European farmers can breathe a little. Of course, this agreement is more beneficial for any and little for others. I mean the German automotive industry. India agreed to reduce its tariffs on European cars from present 110% to 40% to 10% in the coming years. In addition, the duties on car parts are to be definitively abolished. There is besides indirectly good information for Poland, whose manufacture is besides linked to German motorization.
In addition, the agreement provides for:
- reducing tariffs for European wines to 20%,
- reduction of duties on European strong alcohols from 150 to 40%,
- almost completely abolishing duties on European olive oil, bread and sweets,
- reduction of duties on Indian sheepmeat, maize and fruit,
- almost completely abolishing duties on medicines and chemicals,
- facilitate access for European companies to the Indian market.
It is besides worth noting that the agreement provides for the beginning of the EU marketplace to Indian IT professionals, engineers and employees, which could affect the situation of European countries in 2 ways. On the 1 hand, ageing societies request additional labour. On the another hand, Europe opens up in this way to another wave of migration from a country that is culturally abroad to us (I know something about it, due to the fact that I worked with Indians a little). In addition, the attractiveness of Polish workers popular “koppo” may fall even more. Poles are becoming increasingly demanding in terms of wages, while Indians are much cheaper labour.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it was amazing for Europe to support a country that pays for Russian oil. It is true, but it seems to me that, in the current reality, the European Union is looking for all possible way to improve its situation. specified an agreement will improve companies from different European countries. Europe is besides creating a fresh trade channel for India, which can make it somewhat independent of relations with Russia and China.
Prime Minister of Canada without illusions about planet order
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a speech during this year's forum in Davos, in which he very accurately diagnosed the fresh global reality. He stressed that it is absolutely essential to abandon the memory of a planet based on principles – this planet is no longer there. He recalled Tukidides' words that the strong now do what they can and the weak endure what they must. In his opinion, the way to flow with the current and submit to the stronger in the hope of endurance may prove fatal (especially 1 country that uses this approach reminds me).
Mark Carney’s outstanding Davos speed. His best velocity yet, I think!
Here it is in full. pic.twitter.com/DrZVF64tEo
— Gandalv (@Microinteracti1) January 20, 2026
His message was aimed at major powers: the USA, China and Russia. He stated that if smaller states cease to be submissive to them, these powers will lose their power of intimidation. He is most likely referring to his country and, above all, to a Europe with which he seems politically to be getting closer, and the antagonist is Donald Trump, imposing his will on weaker countries. Will an open opposition to the United States pay off? I'm certain it'll give you a better chance than unconditional submission. Canada has already taken concrete steps to build fresh alliances. I am primarily referring to the EU's PESCO reinforcement mechanism. It allows joint production of modern weapons, independent of the Canadian army from supply chains from the US. Canada is thus trying to argue the will of a stronger neighbor. The question is, will Carney's appeal for a akin attitude from another countries be answered? Time will tell.
Greenland in the hands of the United States?
Donald Trump came to Davos, among another things, to play as much as possible in the game of Greenland, a key area from the U.S. safety point of view. Although Denmark and Europe have so far not intended to negociate with the States to sale the island, a breakthrough has occurred in Davos. During the Forum, Trump exerted strong pressure, saying, for example, that he did not want to usage force and that he defended ownership alternatively than lease. The first framework for the agreement was yet announced. The US will not buy Greenland (at least for now), but will gain virtually full control of it. Here are the details:
- Strategic safety Zones have been separated, which include key areas in terms of deterrence of the Russian fleet and natural materials resources.
- These zones are excluded from Danish jurisdiction, which means that American mining companies will be able to start mining there much faster.
- The Danish services will not be allowed into these zones without US approval.
- The contract is to be valid for 99 years and includes the right of first purchase. If the U.S. considers that their infrastructure is existentially threatened, they will be able to launch the buy-out of the island for about $1 trillion.
- If Greenland announces independence, the U.S. undertakes to pay US$600 million a year to the island's citizens' pockets as a charge for utilizing their lands. This is the equivalent of what Denmark presently pays Greenlandeses as a benefit.
It is now time for Denmark to decide whether they will yet agree to specified an agreement. It must be approved by their Parliament. It seems that Copenhagen stands at a break-up where each possible way is unfavorable to them. Acceptance of U.S. conditions means their surrender and surrender of Greenland without a fight. However, their rejection may consequence in an even more aggressive consequence from the Americans, including an effort to bribe the Greenlandites with an even greater amount of money. So it seems that sooner or later the U.S. will make Greenland its next base in a fresh chapter of the rivalry of powers.
Author: Paweł Creama
Source: ]]>https://independenttrader.pl/iran-na-krawedzi-war-z-usa-review-gift-stitchen-2026/]]>
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