On 13 June 2025 Israel, in violation of global law, including the United Nations Charter, has committed aggression against the muslim Republic of Iran. specified are the uncontested facts and only the full illiterate juridical, or the fierce propaganda, unfortunately any and others of the present time are not lacking, can make barbarous irrational constructions about a "justified preventive war".
Thus, leaving behind the legal assessment, which is unambiguous, and not getting into moral-ethical divisions, I decision on to the analysis of matters of strict military and political sense, as already General Carl von Clausewitz, a celebrated Prussian military theorist, believed that war was nothing but a policy, but that led by another tools.
The Strike of Israel — The First Days of War
Israel's Armed Forces, attacking at night on 12/13 June 2055 Iran, achieved full strategical and operational surprise. Iran did not anticipate an attack during its peace negotiations with the United States. The Iranian Army was not prepared for aggression in this Sakli and with the force Israel carried out.
From the first days it was a full-scale war waged by Israel in accordance with the principles of war art. Israel utilized all available to him, but for the atomic weapons, the weapon of war he possessed.
The attack preceded diversion operations utilizing a recruited many agentry, both civilian intelligence – Mossad, and Aman's military intelligence. It was the intelligence agencies that sowed chaos in Iran, detected and pointed out the air force to destruct the command stations, the anti-aircraft defence station, and the residence of Iranian scientists and commanders. They blew up and destroyed, including drones, strategically crucial objects including key OPL radars and systems.
Diversification activities supported peculiar operations, including Israel's intelligence-based elite troops “Sajjeret Matal” – unit 269, whose operators with drones and anti-tank guided missiles destroyed key radiolocation stations of Iranian anti-aircraft defense.
Israel's aircraft equipped with highly detectable 5th generation F-35 radar aircraft equipped with the latest HARM-type U.S. anti-radio-location rockets have devastated Iran's anti-aircraft defence positions without suffering any losses within 12 days.
Iran's OPL, technologically backward, was mostly created in a sanctioned country since 1980, having fewer acquisitions from Russia as 2 S-300 strategy divisions and respective Buk and TOR systems and respective Chinese radars have been virtually annihilated.
Under conditions of undisputable air advantage, obtained after 3 days, Israeli aviation "bombed" classical bombs dropped by the F-16 Sufa and the F-15D all the targets the command indicated.
It should be remembered that Israel's air operations were possible due to the collapse of the Syrian State with comparatively strong, modern and extended anti-aircraft defense, supported by allied troops of the Russian Army. It was a airspace that was breached by Israeli Daillah maneuvering rockets launched from aircraft, but not IAF aircraft alone. Not by accident after the fall of Bash Assad's regime, for many weeks the Israeli air force carried out devastating raids destroying anti-aircraft systems, radars, aircraft of the Syrian army.
Under these conditions, the air space of Syria and equally fallen Iraq, was impunityless and commonly in violation of global law utilized by the IAF for attacks on Iran. That's where the flying tankers were from, drawing fuel from attacking Israeli aircraft.
Not by accident, in the last 2 years Israel has besides completely destroyed the forces of Iran's allies in neighboring Lebanon - Hezbolla, and Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip. He besides destroyed Huti's possible in Yemen. Iran has for decades been creating the alleged "resistance axis", but in the last 2 years it has been annihilated by Israel.
It was created in June 2025 for Israel a historical “window of opportunity” which the government of Benjamin Natenjahu utilized absolutely.
The U.S. enters the game
The full-size commitment of the United States, which joined the war on the side of Israel after a week, in case of escalation left the muslim Republic no chance of survival.
Americans and their allies have at their disposal a crushing aviation and sea possible concentrated in many bases in the region. Last week, the Americans relocated around 150 aircraft to their bases in the mediate East, from airports in the US and Europe, despite hundreds of aircraft on site.
In the region there was an aircraft carrier strike group USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), from the Indian Ocean sailed USS Nimitz (CVN-68), and from the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78).
As the practice has shown, Iran's air defence and archaic aviation are incapable to defy even fighting only against Israel itself, which would be after a full-scale entry into the U.S. aviation conflict can only be guessed.
During the 12 days of the war Israel lost a maximum of 6 long-range drones Hermes 900. It's an MALE class combat drone with a take-off weight of 1180 kg, of which up to 350 kg can be a load, including various electronic designation and combat systems. The device can be armed and can carry out missions, according to the manufacturer, for more than 36 hours and the operating ceiling is 30,000 feet (about 9150 m). The price is about $35,000.
Fulfilling the objectives of the war defined by Israel
The main nonsubjective of the war was to destruct Iran's atomic program. It is inactive unclear what harm has been done to Iran's underground atomic facilities in Fordo, Isfahana and Natanz (maybe we will find out erstwhile the global Atomic Energy Agency is allowed in), but even without them it is apparent that Iran lost this game.
His atomic program, if not completely destroyed, was delayed for many years due to the failure of primarily murdered many key scientists, destroyed and damaged objects and priceless investigation equipment.
You can't go through this place to analyse war crimes, that is to say, murdering scientists who have died with their families many times. Because, as fewer of us speak, apart from Iranian atomic scientists, members of their families, including children, reported by Iranian media, died in Israeli attacks. It is known that Mostafa Sadati-Armaqi, a atomic scientist from the city of Kashan, was killed along with his wife, Fahime Moghim, 2 daughters and son: 15-year-old Rehyana, 8-year-old Fatemeh, and five-year-old Ali. Furthermore, as reported by Iranian media, another atomic scientist, Isara Tabatabaei-Kamshe, died in an Israeli attack along with his wife. Another scientist killed in the IDF attacks is Mohammad Reza Sadiki, and a fewer days earlier Iranian agencies besides wrote about the death of the scientist's boy – in the Israeli attack on the scientist's apartment.
Tel Aviv's second goal was to make riots and bring about the crisis of the Ayatollah government as a consequence of the overthrow of their power, and optimally the disintegration of Iran into smaller states based on national tensions. In this regard, Israel suffered a full defeat.
Ballistic rockets: a “shield” that defended the Persians and did not let their country to be annihilated
The only means of defence proved to be extended Iranian rocket forces equipped with a full scope of short and average scope ballistic missiles. 2000 km maximum. However, their comparatively not highest accuracy, the alleged wheel failure, did not let them to hit military and industrial buildings more effectively.
However, contrary to Israeli propaganda, that most of the Iranian strikes fell on civilian areas and caused only any economical damage, Israel suffered severe losses. The Iranians damaged it so that it stopped the refinery in Haifa as well as the power plant there. They destroyed technological and investigation centers including the Weitzman Institute in Rechovot. rocket strategy launchers and Mossad or Aman objects.
However, this cannot be compared to the losses of Iran caused by hundreds of air strikes by Israel with thousands of bombs and hundreds of maneuvering missiles.
Iranian rocket strikes conducted in the first 2 days with 50-40 rockets, in the next fell to 20-15. Interestingly, however, despite supporting an extended rocket defence based on Proca David's systems, Arrow 2, Arrow 3, MIM-104 Patriot, via the US with THAAD strategy batteries and marine SM-3, Iranian missiles were breaking through. While it was only 10-15% in the first weeks, it was 35% to 50% from day 4 of the war.
Summary
The assessment of the Israeli war must be viewed through the prism of US engagement. The United States took part in the conflict in its final phase, hitting Iran's underground atomic facilities. Either way, six B-2A Spirit strategical bombers, with 509 Air Wings, which after a 37-hour flight, dropped 12 Bunker Buster GBU-57A/B ILO bombs on the Ford and Natanz facility.
The Americans evidently did not want further escalation without bringing into the conflict of tactical aviation, allowing an agreed, de facto ineffective "retaliatory" Iranian attack with 12 short-range rockets at the U.S. Al-Udeid air base in Qatar. The aim was that the Iranian authorities could partially save their face from national public opinion.
Iran suffered dense losses in the military, industrial and technological spheres as well as in the political arena, but the strength of the Ayatollah government within Iran remained. The intention of Prime Minister Netanyahu to overthrow the power of the Ayatollahs burned down and here it is clearly Iranian success.
However, restoring everything that destroyed Israel will take quite a few time and effort, and the consequences for Iran's atomic program may be critical.
Iranian rocket troops fired more than 400 rockets, but suffered severe losses in launchers, destroyed rockets, and on an unknown scale in alleged rocket towns, which the IAF heavy bombarded.
However, these are Emand rockets, Fatah. “Khaybar Shekan” and “Chad Kasem” or three-stage Sjil, made Israel inclined to end the war. Israel's economy and society would not last another week in shelters, under the fire of warheads, without trade and tourists. Israel can afford the "Blitzkrieg", but not the war for exhaustion. So here's a point for Iran.
Israel demonstrated clearly the ability to effectively break and destruct enemy anti-aircraft defense. He showed a good rocket defence system, but not adequate costly, technologically advanced and thus fewer anti-missiles, made the system, despite support from the US, stand on the brink of collapse.
Israel has not first shown the highest level of its civilian and military intelligence and intelligence and diversional work.
A key origin in Israel's success remains Cahalu aviation, as a tool of ultramodern force projection, capable of hitting deep into distant enemy territory. The technological advantage, the training of pilots, tactics and usage of the latest IAF reconnaissance and impact measures was simply stunning. She shook the foundations of the modern Persian state, decimated the highest command circles of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary defender Corps.
The United States could one more time act as a peacemaker through force, waiting for Israel to destruct or "accept" most of Iran's ballistic missiles and clear the battlefield against Iran's anti-aircraft defence systems. They attacked spectacularly Iranian atomic facilities and led both sides to an agreement.
The price to pay the population is completely unknown. Officially, at least 28 people died in Israel, 3238 were hospitalized. About 800 people died in Iran, thousands of wounded.
The truce, followed by forced peace, is the consequence of the assessment by the ruling elites of the states fighting the situation for present and the prospects of the war. Israel has in rule achieved the main objectives of the war and has not been able to proceed without severe economical losses. Iran has saved part of the atomic program, it is likely to have a "peaceful atom", and the fuel will be delivered and delivered to Russia's power plant. He saved the Ayatollah government despite the hazard of rioting strong opposition, which could yet lead to the dissolution of Iran and bringing it back to the function of a fallen state, as visited by "warriors fighting for democracy and human rights": Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
The hazard of Iran blocking the Ormuz Strait and the Allied Yemen-based Bab al-Mandab Straits resulting in a kind of self-limitation of the US and the suppression of the raging war of Netanjah.
China, whose main supplier of oil is Iran, besides influenced Tehran, pushing for deescalation as the blockade would besides hit Iran's infrastructure and tankers would not deliver oil to China, tipping its economy, or at least endangering severe shocks.
Either way, as a consequence of specified a not different course of war and in the face of the intersection of many interests of regional and global players, The 12-day Israeli-Iran War ends with a truce, and shortly with peace.
Krzysztof Podgórski
