World uncertainty, especially with respect to trade, has reached unprecedented levels,” the global Monetary Fund (IMF) reported.
"Uncertainty, especially as regards trade policy, has reached unprecedented levels. The degree of growth (uncertainties – ed.) varies from country to country," said the organisation in a published report.
As noted in the IMF document, the fast escalation of trade tensions has led to "an highly advanced level of political uncertainty", which has complicated the creation of a single forecast of global growth.
The Fund expects uncertainty to stay increased by 2025 and 2026, adversely affecting the pace of growth of the planet economy and economies of individual countries, including the US."
"Commercial duties act as a supply shock on countries imposing duties, reducing productivity and expanding unit costs. Customs countries are experiencing a negative request shock,” says the document.
The IMF stressed that in both cases companies and households will respond to a simplification in expenditure and investment, and this effect can be further reinforced by tight financial conditions and increased exchange rate volatility.
In commenting on the duties imposed by the US and the retaliation measures taken by another countries, the fund pointed to their medium-term impact on the American and Chinese economies as well as European and Asian economies.
"The global economy is at a critical moment, with crucial political returns and uncertainty... In the face of ongoing structural changes, increased uncertainty and persistent weak growth, policy should focus on steps to reconstruct assurance and stability, reduce imbalances and sustainably stimulate growth", the fund concluded.
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Continued here:
IMF: Global uncertainty has reached evidence high
