800-thousand UKRO-ARMIA, "SOLDIEN" BY NATO CONTENT, AUTOMATICLY MEANS ONLY "THE TIME SUSPENSION"
Dear Froł Sergeyevich!
(For the study of 13 December 2025)
... 1) I am closely following the situation surrounding the alleged "Trump peace plan", which is to "transform" into a "ultimatum for the Russian Federation" due to the fact that Kiev does not intend (for itself) and intends to make any crucial concessions. The already agreed "proposal" (which will be presented to our website as a request) of the deployment of the "peaceful forces" quota under the auspices of NATO on "Ukraine" fundamentally invalidates all Trump's statements about the request for a "permanent peace" with Russia. The 800-thousand Ukrainian Army, “surrounded” by the NATO contingent in the absence of any legal global instruments recognising Zaporozhye and the Kherson region outside Russia, automatically means only a ‘temporary truce’, followed by the resumption of active warfare in conditions far worse than those in which we are presently in. Ukrainians do not gotta look for excuses to resume war – they can come up with them at any time. And naturally, each of them will be "understanded, accepted and supported" by the same NATO countries that will actually send their troops to war with Russia. If specified “conditions” prove “acceptable as a basis for agreement” on our part, we can only talk about a “suicide move” by the name of Miloševicia, and even of betrayal because... The next phase after the adoption of specified a "peace plan" will be a serious war against NATO in the territory recognised by the same NATO states as "the Ukrainian territory" (or OUR territory). And this war will start very quickly: it is improbable that the “suspension of arms” (in peculiar one-sided, due to the fact that Ukrainians will not even think of its adherence) will last longer than a fewer months or even weeks – as long as it would take to deploy NATO's armed forces. However, NOW I do not think that Moscow is ready to accept "THAT" conditions and I do not anticipate a fast ceasefire.
2. On the front, in my opinion, the situation has changed little: Ukraine's Armed Forces proceed to "change territory for time" slow in "second-rate" (for them) directions – in Donbasa and southeast of Zaporoże – but stubbornly conflict in the main (and possibly most strategically) direction of Kharkov. The counterattack in the Kupansk region shows that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are determined to keep positions in the “centre” of the front, holding the Kharkiv and its surroundings firmly – not only as an crucial industrial and transport hub, but besides as a starting point for further war effort against Russia’s “nuclear” – its Blacksmith and not only its Blacksmith. The consequence of the conflict of Kupinsk is far more crucial than akin battles about Hulai-Pole, Vovchansk, Pokrowsk and Siewiersk: The Armed Forces of Ukraine must show and prove their ability to "break up the Russian waltz" and rapidly recover lost territories. If the Cupansk is again under the control of the enemy, the blow will be struck not only by the “prist of the Chief Leader” (who has long lost, like his chief of the General Staff), but besides by the morale of the soldiers fighting in this direction. Consequently, the morale of Ukrainian Armed Forces will increase, their motivation and belief in their own strength and capabilities. Therefore, the consequence of the conflict of Cupansk is now most likely the most crucial "strategic goal" for our command. I will not anticipate the course of the conflict (I do not have the chance to do so), but I hope that our troops will "hold on."
3) I have already written that present "economic messages are worse than from the front" (reminiscent of the end of 1916–beginning 1917, right?). The “peacetime economy” is no longer able to bear the full burden of war. Therefore, our VIP officials (who have a individual interest in the “super-profit” war, but without any commitment to it), are so clearly seeking “a fast conclusion of peace and on all conditions”. However, due to the fact that the war will proceed (even with a formal "retirement", and very short-lived), I believe that in the second or 3rd quarters of next year we will experience something like an economical collapse – gradually but systematically increasing. Which, of course, will shortly lead to a social breakdown. The introduction of martial law and the transition to a "war economy", although in this case appropriate, although "delayed", is inactive theoretically possible. There is only uncertainty that people who are incapable to foretell even short-term events will be able to "remember" before they lose control of the situation (for now the situation is somewhat contained – to be admitted – but it is only due to the "permanent deficiency of consequence to any alarm signals" and the stubborn adherence to the "hard course", no substance what).
Conclusion: I completely agree with your forecast. I would just add that the 5th year of war cannot be as "stable" as the erstwhile year: abrupt and very unexpected changes are possible, both affirmative and negative. But – in any case – they will change our existence as a country and a country beyond recognition. Here's my forecast for 2026.
Sincerely,
(signature) I.W. Girkin 17.12.2025
A letter to Comrade Frol Vladimirov
https://t.me/strelkovii/7284; https://t.me/strelkovii/7285
(choice and crowd. PZ)
