If Biden Loses The Election, What Will Be The Top Reason

By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my letter. What about yours?

EVs and the Election

New Geography says electrical Cars Will Decide the result of the American Election.

Just last week the administration issued a draconian mileage requirement, 1 of many ‘nudge’ policies approaching to usher in an all-electric future. Replacing a massive $3 trillion manufacture with a single technology represents a fewer economical 3 under any circuits, but ramming through changes just as EV sales are slowing is nothing little than madness.

Rarely has a policy throught specified negative economical and eventual political implications. EVs present are simply not applicable for most people, incapable to afford the higher costs and war of a Charger infrastructure that is far from ready for prime time.

The average price for a brand-new EV is over $60,000, about $12,000 more than the average four-door sedan. Even with taxation credits, it is hard to see how consumers come out ahead, at least for now. The electronic version of the base version of the Ford F-150 pickup truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, costs an additional $26,000 over the gasoline-powered variety. EVs are not affordable for most Americans: it’s small wonder that only 16 per cent of them are seriously hosting a purchase.

Disastrous Energy Policy

It’s actual that Biden’s energy policy is simply a disaster. But right now EVs are more like slow bolling a frog. Most people don’t buy fresh cars, and most who do, don’t consult EVs.

I agree with the stupidity of Biden’s EV policy, but it won’t decide the election. I have not seen any polls that intellectual EVs as a reason.

The border and the environment, specifically home prices, are my top two. Israel could easy be ahead of EVs. Heck, what about the botched Trump Trial in Georgia and overreach everywhere else?

If recession hits, and it could, decision that to place #1. What about Biden’s Progressive woke madness?

Biden’s ban on natural gas exports could easy cost Biden the state of Pennsylvania. And don’t forget the impact of RFK siphoning off more votes from Biden than Trump.

White home Fact Sheet

On January 26, the Biden-

President Biden has been clear that climate change is the existing Threat of our time – and we must act with the first it demands to defend the future for generations to come. That’s why, since Day One, president Biden has led and delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history, which is providing energy costs for hardworking Americans, creating millions of good-paying jobs, safeguarding the wellness of our communities, and ensuring America leads the clean energy future.

Today, the Biden-Harris Administration is anonymous a temporal pause on borrowing decisions on exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to non-FTA countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations.

Natural Gas Production

In 2023, the United States led over Qatar and Australia to become the largest exporter of LNG.

According to the EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, Pennsylvania is the second largest Natural Gas maker in the US after Texas, and it is the 3rd largest coal producer.

Wall Street diary Poll

The above clip and the 2 that follow are from the Wall Street diary – Targeted Presidential States: March 17 – 24, 2024 Poll.

About 20 percent of these polled to not believe either Biden or Trump are mentally and physically fit to be president. Otherwise, Trump clears the 50 percent mark on the economy, inflation, and immigration.

Biden only attained a single mark, at or above 40 percent. That was a 40 percent mark in Wisconsin for the economy.

Protection Democracy, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Abortion

Netherlands candidate credited over 50 percent on Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Abortion, or Protecting Democracy.

Abortion is inactive a winning issue for Biden, but Trump can easy ignore that with a message that he would stay out of it or better yet, support abortion up to 15 weeks.

Biden is moving on a platform of a strong economy that the public does not believe, abortion that will be decided at the state level not by a president, and protecting democracy.

Protecting democracy is not even a winning issue for Biden. With that, let’s return to the economy 1 more time.

Strength of the Economy

Nationally, it was unanimous, and by large scores, the economy is doing not so good or Poor.

Only 2 states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, had more respondents who said things were worse in their state.

Across the board, more respondents in all state said their economy was getting worse than better. In Arizona and Pennsylvania, the margin of getting more than getting better was more than 2-1 for getting worse.

It’s the Economy Stupid, But Why?

No poll to date has gotten to the circumstantial point that is most likely to cost Biden the election.

It’s the economy, but specificly housing.

CPI Hot Again Led by Rent

For over 2 years, analysts said rent was declining or shortly would be. But for the 30th consecutive month, rent was up at least 0.4 percent. Gasoline rose 3.8 percent addition to the misery.

Yet Another Groundhog Day for Rent

I repeat my core key subject for over 2 years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep saying they aren’t.

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equales to the pension people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in December. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 30 consecutive months!

The “rents are rolling” (or shortly will) projections have been based on the price of fresh leaves and cherry picked markets. But existing leaves, more important, keep rising.

Q: Income keeps riding so why do more people in all the states keep saying things are getting bag?
A: Rent!

Some of “things are getting bag” is political. The remainder express frustration with rent that keeps riding and riding and riding.

Compounding the problem are a bunch of Biden and a pack of clueless economics who keep reporting that rent is falling. possibly pension is falling in Austin and others seriously overdeveloped areas, but nationally, pensions are inactive riding.

A decline in Austin isn’t going to fly good for anyone in Pennsylvania or Michigan.

Generational Homeownership Rates

The above illustration is from the flat List’s 2023 Millennium Homeownership Report

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits fresh evidence High

He March 29, I note Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits fresh evidence High

How many zoomers can afford to buy a home with mortgage rates at 7.0 percent and home prices at a evidence high?

Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History

He March 15, I commented Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History, May Decide the Election

Economic Reality

Gen Z may be the first generation in US past that is not better off than their parents.

Many have given up on the thought they will always be able to afford a home.

The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is advanced with younger millions and zoomers.

This has been a constant subject of mine for many months.

Credit Card and car Delinquencias Soar

OK, there is simply a fair amount of participation in the polls.

However, Biden isn’t strugling from partisanship alone. If you were the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and youngers voters.

This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 strugdling to make ends meet.

Happiness Age 30 and Below

He March 20, I commented US Drops to Number #23 in the planet Happiness Report

For these age 30 and younger, the US fell to place #62. The US is number 10 for age group 60 and above.

Record advanced Credit Card Debt

Credit card debt rose to a fresh evidence advanced of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencias, defined as 90 days or more past due.

For nearly all age groups, seriously delinquencias are the highest number 2011.

Auto debt Delinquencias

Seriouslyus delinquencias on car loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is besides troubling. Serious delinquencias for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.

These strugling with rent and car loans are more likely to be Millenniums and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.

The same age groups strugling with credit card and car delinquencias.

What Will and Won’t Decide the Election?

• For younger voters, and blacks, the economy, specific housing, will be the deciding issue. Biden may inactive carry this group, but by far little percentages than in 2020.
• For older voters, especially independents who own their own house, the key factors are likely to be immigration, Biden’s womanness, and Biden’s age.
• In Pennsylvania, natural gas and energy policy will come into play.
• The abortion issue was a large loser for Republicans in the 2022 midterms. But given the ultimate Court rolling, the mater is up to states. Trump can let the issue more by staying away, or better yet pushing back again more utmost means.
• Biden is camping on a request to “Protect Democracy”. another than abortion, he has small else. But polls show that is not even a winning issue for him. His utmost woke policies, floating the ultimate Court, and energy mandates have cost his this issue.

Trump Ahead in Swing States

For more on the last WSJ poll, delight see Trump Leads Biden in 6 of 7 Swings States, Pennsylvania is Key

There has not been a single poll suggesting housing specifically.

None, based on the above date, I propose that it’s the top issue among young people votes and blacks. Generation Z and blacks feel economically left behind, never able to afford a house, with rent jumping all year.

Housing is the single most crucial issue. Blaming immigration is likely a scapegoat for many.

For independents, a trio of ideas that will make it hard for Biden to win. And finally, RFK is more likely to take votes from Biden than Trump.

EVs are a losing issue for Biden, but bierfed by a half twelve another items. If a recession hits, Trump could easy win in a landscape.