After 7 months of war, the economy of the Ukrainian state is in complete ruin and this fact can no longer be hidden: they are incapable to do so either censorship or on-call haters.
Even authoritative propagandists must publically admit that Ukraine's defence is entirely financed and supplied from external sources. This is the top historical paradox that has not yet had precedent. So far, wars were primarily carried out by their own forces, and external aid was complementary.
Where all equipment and food and military backing comes from 3rd countries, the question of the meaning of specified a war should be asked not only from the point of view of those who defend themselves. Unfortunately, wars are besides (or possibly above all) large business. Until now, only those countries that could afford it have led them: erstwhile the means of conducting it ran out, the fighting naturally expired: figuratively speaking, blood was spared due to the fact that unarmed soldiers could not be sent to death. Now it is different, and it is an analogy to the United Kingdom during the second large wars: this country could not afford to proceed the fight against Germany as early as 1940 after the defeat of France: the function of its war sponsor was taken over by the United States, which simultaneously led to ... the liquidation of the power position of London and later to the cassate of the British Empire, and the submission of that state to American politics.
However, the question arises: how long now will the United States and respective another countries (including Poland) bear the burden of this war? The existing resources of their weapons, which are already being transferred to the Ukrainians, are already slow exhausted, and the likelihood of their economies being turned into war modes is very low: this would require a drastic simplification in the standard of surviving of an crucial part of their population, regulation of the trading of many goods, price control, and this could origin social revolt. The current economical impact of this war, which is the participation of Western societies (inflation, expensiveness, shortages in gas, coal and energy supply), raises strong objections. So how long will this “United West” fund this war? It is likely that their losses are counting on a " Palace coup" in Moscow, and Russia will contribute to the end of this conflict. So it will be possible to reject success, due to the fact that the “repealing policy” ended in a spectacular defeat: Russia started a regular war, so it was not afraid of threats from NATO.
Publicly presented analyses and especially authoritative propaganda omit this problem for many reasons. Why? due to the fact that the imposed and undisputable intent of this war, namely “the liberation of the full territory of Ukraine”, including Crimea, has become a trap: “human resources” of the ruined state, weapons retention facilities in supporting countries and the current production capacity of arms suppliers do not warrant the accomplishment of this goal only in the coming months, but even years. This position has besides been confirmed by the “world leadership” unequivocally stating that it will be “long-term”, that is, it will proceed endlessly. No 1 wants to effort to answer the question of what will happen erstwhile these resources of defenders and magazines of supporting states run out.
You can't even think about this problem. erstwhile we scope these borders, we will actually gotta capitulate and even formally. For the second time after Afghanistan, no 1 in the West can afford specified a disaster. The Western allies are waiting for the second “miracle of the Brandenburg house”, which is simply a fundamental change in Russian policy. These forecasts are confirmed by authoritative propagandists who proceed to item the “Kremlian crises”, the “weakening of Putin’s position” or the “threats of the oligarchs’, “military” or “services”. Do the Russian authorities take this script into account in their strategy? I think so.
Witold Modzelewski
photo by RIA Novosti
Think Poland, No. 49-50 (4-11.12.2022)
