For the first time in over 3 years inflation in Poland has fallen below 2.5%, which is the inflation mark of the National Bank of Poland. However, the ‘Banker’ portal notes that this is simply a temporary state and that the rate of price increase is likely to velocity up soon. It is worth recalling that from 1 April, 5% of VAT will be reinstated on food commodities, which will surely translate into an inflation rate due to higher prices in stores.
According to the fast estimation of the Central Statistical Office published on Friday, in March 2024 the index of consumer goods and services (CPI) increased by 1.9 percent compared to the same period in 2023. This is the lowest inflation level since March 2019. At the same time, for the first time since February 2021 inflation has fallen below the 2.5% inflation mark of the NBP.
The inflation reading from March turned out to be lower than most economists who estimated it from 2 to 2.5%.
Lega artis AppOver the past year, statistic from the Central Statistical Office recorded a minimal increase in food prices of only 0.2%. At the same time, prices of energy carriers (by 2.6%) and fuel (by 4.5%) decreased. This means that the another goods had to go much higher than 2 percent.
Bankier.pl notes that the current accomplishment of the inflation mark of the National Bank of Poland is temporary. The indicator is expected to exceed 2.5% on an yearly basis in April or at the latest in the summer. This is the consequence of a return from next period to a 5% VAT rate on food, an increase in electricity and gas tariffs, and a simplification in the impact of advanced fuel prices. In addition, there is strong price force in the service sector.
In February 2023 inflation reached 18.4%, which was the highest recorded indicator in over 25 years. Two-digit consumer inflation continued in Poland for 18 months, and for the next 30 months it importantly exceeded the threshold of 5 percent. Bankier.pl emphasises that in the last 5 years the cumulative CPI inflation amounted to as much as 42.67%.
The Central Statistical Office informs that the data published present are preliminary and presented to a limited extent.
In January this year, the inflation rate in Poland was 3.9% on an yearly basis.
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