The muslim Republic of Iran is simply a model enemy: an oppressive government that likes in prison, torture and hanging dissidents and which a large part of its own society hates. The Iranians have repeatedly expressed this in fresh years when, despite the deadly risk, they have taken to the streets to protest against the government.
His destructive actions in the region are undeniable: over the years Iran has been skittishly building what it itself calls "the opposition axis"—a coalition of groups of various character, specified as the Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas, or the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, more widely known as Huti. The support, backing and reinforcement of various types of militias and militias in the mediate East has for many years been a charge not only of the global community, but besides of the Iranians themselves, frustrated by the fact that the government spends dense money on demonstrating its own power in the face of their disastrous economical situation.
Finally, there is no uncertainty that Tehran did not comply with the provisions of global proliferation treaties. In May of that year, the global Atomic Energy Agency warned that Tehran was not cooperating with the agency on the basis of global treaties and that it had accumulated more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, so it is comparatively close to the method ability to construct an atomic bomb if it wanted to. The ability to carry it, as we know, has long been present.
The second became the authoritative origin of Israel's attack, which claims it must at all costs destruct Iran's atomic program, which it sees as an existential threat. The strength of the attacks – not only on atomic targets, but besides on a number of the highest military rank or the world's largest oil field of South Pars – made any commentators look for the actions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanjah another goal: forcing government change in Iran.
Netanjahu himself reacted to these hypotheses, calling in his speech to the Iranians: "It is time for the Iranian people to unite around their flag and historical heritage, standing up for your freedom from an evil and oppressive regime," he argued. “The muslim government that oppressed you for almost 50 years threatens to destruct our country. The government [...] was never weaker. This is your chance to stand up and be heard. Woman, life, freedom – Zan, Zendegi, Azadi” continued, referring to the slogan of anti-government protests After Mahsa Amini died, killed by the safety forces for an improperly inserted scarf.
However, the reactions from Iran indicate that Netanjahu overbid. Indeed, the decapitation of Iran's military command, including the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps, of an entity that is fundamentally to prosecute the endurance of the government – as on many specified occasions it met with joy or even vindictive satisfaction of many inhabitants. “Those who have oppressed and killed us for years now get what they deserve,” voices are heard. Characters like Hosejn Salami, commander of Sepah, as the Iranians call the Guardians of the Revolution, were not very popular. Amir Ali Hajizadeh was besides killed in the raids, who was head of the Air Force in the Corps, widely hated since taking work for Iran's involuntary shooting down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft in 2019.
However, it shortly turned out that the mark (or "by-products", as it is called in military jargon) There are besides average people in Iranian cities who simply had the misfortune of surviving in the same residential complex as scientists dealing with the atom or safety forces. The social media ran around photos of terrified, bloody Iranian city dwellers fleeing bombed neighborhoods in terror. According to fresh information from the Iranian Ministry of Health, at least 224 people were killed in Israeli raids, of which 90% were civilians. Israel's defence minister, Israel Kac, threatened that “the Iranian dictator turns Tehran into Beirut”, referring to last year's war between Israel and Hezbollah, which terrorized the city's inhabitants.
If raids on densely built residential settlements, calls for evacuations announced exclusively on the X portal, frequently in the mediate of the night, and sometimes not at all, as well as civilian casualties and immense destructions, were now to become the reality of the Iranians – even those who celebrate present the blows of hated power can change their attitude. In Iran, the gap between doulat, government, a mellat, The people or nation, but Israeli assurances that war is waged against the former, are unconvincing of further bombings of Iranian cities.
Even the killings of atomic scientists caused violent opposition to any of the inhabitants. The improvement of the civilian atomic programme has always enjoyed large support among the Iranians, and in fresh years (it would not be besides bold to presume that, under the influence of expanding exchange of fire with Israel) more and more people began to announcement advantages the pursuit of atomic weapons. According to a survey conducted in May 2024 by IranPoll based in Toronto, as many as 69 percent of respondents were of the opinion that their country should not quit atomic ambitions.
It is besides also early to foretell how the ongoing war will change social sentiments. The muslim Republic lost a generation of young Iranians that had no formattic, national-generated experiences of erstwhile generations, specified as the 1979 Revolution or the Iraqi-Iran War. Now, for the first time in their lives, they see the demolition in the streets of their cities – the doctrine of “punished defense” kept attacks distant from Iranian territory for years. The hatred of a large condition of young people for the government does not mean that they will willingly sacrifice themselves and that external interference will be accepted as liberation.
This sentiment closes well in the viral expression of Iranian author Sahar Delijani, whose parents were political prisoners of the muslim Republic. "I was born in an Iranian prison [...]. no of you will tell me anything about the crimes of the Iranian government that I have not survived. That doesn't mean I want my people bombed, wounded, killed, their homes turned to ruins. If your imagination of liberation requires the demolition of innocent lives, it is not about freedom," she wrote in her instagram account.
Even if Israel in any way succeeded in bringing down the government in Tehran, it would mean more or little that a 90-million-dollar state and a regional power would fall into chaos. Protests that have erupted in Iran in fresh years, including the largest after Mahsa Amina's death, did not, without reason, bring about long-term changes and did not have much impact on political reality. Although they spread across the country and across all social groups, they lacked structure and leadership.
This is not always a weakness – erstwhile the movement does not have leaders, they cannot be simply arrested and thus suppressed, as was the case with Mira Hosejn Mousawa and Mehdi Karrobi, leaders of the alleged Green Revolution. In this case, however, it means that there is no visible individual or group in Iran that could naturally and with the support of most of the population take over in the event of the collapse of the muslim Republic. If the death of Ali Chamenei, the political and spiritual leader of Iran, a group that would most likely search to take over power, would be a powerful, military-economic conglomerate of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps, not necessarily a little confrontational approach towards Israel. So if you believe what Alexis de Tocqueville wrote – that revolutions inevitably lead to a stronger state – Netanjah's dream may prove to be his nightmare.
There are applicable issues. War in its nature is exacerbated by existing crises, and Iran has been struggling with all their cascades for years. After the first raids, the black marketplace value of the riala, the Iranian currency, decreased by 15 percent, the cities see long queues in front of gas stations, and any residents evacuate from districts that are expected to be bombed according to warnings. Unlike the people of Israel, the Iranians do not have access to shelters, so Tehran subway stations have been open 24 hours a day since Saturday to service them. erstwhile people are busy fighting for physical survival, they have small space left for political action. In fact, the government even secured this possibility, and according to the Guardian account, in any parts of Tehran, it deployed prevention officers in case of possible protests.
What will be the future of the conflict? Iranian leaders have no strong cards on their hands. They were attacked at a time erstwhile the government has been the weakest in decades – faced by interior problems, in mediocre economical circumstances, with no support from their regional allies. A powerful blow to him was the failure of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, and the jewel in the crown of the “axis of resistance”, Hezbollah, was so weakened in last year's war with Israel that it declares not to engage in conflict.
Despite the intensely developed ballistic rocket programme and unprecedented blows Iran has been taking to Israel through its anti-aircraft systems for years, there is no chance of a regular military clash. The attacks on Iranian territory besides show how profoundly Israeli intelligence infiltrated Iran at all possible level. Therefore, returning to the way of diplomacy and atomic talks from the United States, although it inactive seems possible, is from Tehran's position a double-edged sword. Sitting down at the table and going to considerable concessions, he has the chance to break the spiral of conflict and spare not only his citizens, but his own further humiliation.
On the another hand, it will show weakness, and in the face of the failure of another powers of deterrence – specified as the activity of the mentioned Hezbollah – the government may conclude that obtaining atomic weapons as shortly as possible is the only thing that can defend it from further attacks. It is not yet known how serious the demolition of Israel has caused atomic infrastructure in Iran and how rapidly Tehran would be able to rebuild its atomic potential. In any case, it is only possible to return to the talks erstwhile the attacks have stopped, as announced by the head of Iranian diplomacy Abbas Aragchi. For the time being, Iran has refused to cooperate further with the inspectors of the global Atomic Energy Agency, which, although not producing the desired results in fresh months, existed at least. Meanwhile, an Iranian MFA spokesperson reported on Monday that Majles (Iranian parliament) was working on a bill that would bring Iran out of the 1968 Treaty of Non-Proliferation of atomic Weapons.
The unpredictable nature of U.S. president Donald Trump makes looking for answers to the question of the anticipation of the U.S. being active in the conflict resembles divination from the fuzes. The confrontation with the United States is surely not what Tehran would like, so despite its own threats, it is improbable that it will decide to attack US targets in the region. It is possible to block the Hormuz Strait, through which a lion's condition of the world's oil flows daily, which would inevitably consequence in an increase in its prices and possibly forced the global community to search ways to end the conflict.
So far, Tehran has not raised the white flag and is inactive leading retaliatory attacks on Israel, and the second suggests that raids on Iran may take weeks, not days. Donald Trump is inactive calling for an agreement, possibly hoping that the Iranian government will step down against major harm as it did in 1988 during the war with Iraq.
The problem is that the muslim Republic is much weaker today, and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feels that he is fighting to last the existential threat. For now, the worst of the worst of the bad scenarios of the situation, i.e. the spillover of the conflict on the region, possibly on the full world, has not been fulfilled.
Unfortunately, things can always get worse.
