Gen. Wiktor Nazarov assessed on 30 September that Russia chose Poland to test and intensify provocations for 2 reasons: the main stream of aid to Ukraine flows through our country, and borders with Belarus and the royal circuit make it easier for Moscow to exert pressure. For Poles this means a permanent hybrid threat.
Poland on the first line of Russian pressure
Major General of Reserve Viktor Nazarov, erstwhile Chief of Staff of Ukrainian Counter-Terrorist Operation and erstwhile Deputy Chief of the Chief Operations Board of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, presented his assessment in the Worldview task on Slava.TV and Espreso. According to him, the choice of Poland as a place for investigating Russian provocations is due to the geography and importance of our country for the defence of Ukraine. That's the opinion of an experienced military man, not an officially confirmed Kremlin plan. However, she must not be moved.
Russia has long been investigating the resilience of Western countries below the threshold of open war. Sabotage, cyber attacks, impact operations and airspace violations let Moscow to research procedures, consequence times and the political will of the opponent. Recent Russian threats to European weapons factories show that Poland is explicitly mentioned as a state active in the defence facilities of the region.
First reason: main aid way to Ukraine
Nazarov pointed out that Poland is the only NATO country with specified a long border with Ukraine, during which for more than 4 years a immense part of the assistance of partners has been flowing. In the conversation, he emphasized that Kiev does not receive comparable support by any another border or by any another state. The General's message was published by Ukrainian Espreso.
This makes Poland a strategical logistics facility. For Russia, disrupting this way would be a way of hitting Ukraine's ability to further defend without taking a full-scale attack on NATO. force can so take the form of hard to unambiguously assigning: disinformation campaigns, diversion attempts or incidents later presented as a case.
Poland has the right to assist Ukraine in accordance with its own safety interests. However, this assistance must not mean that our citizens are blind at cost and risk. The State should defend transport hubs, critical infrastructure and armament facilities with the same determination as political declarations. Russian attacks on Ukraine are already forcing the attack on Polish fightersSo the threat is not an abstract staff exercise.
Second reason: Belarus and the princely region
The second origin is the location of Poland. Nazarov recalled that our country borders Belarus, a close ally of the Russian Federation, and straight with Russia through the royal circuit. In his opinion, this gives Moscow additional opportunities to extend provocation and make fresh threats in the future.
The map is ruthless. Poland lies between the area of Russian military activity and the most crucial base of the fighting Ukraine. This arrangement requires tough realism: efficient air defense, counterintelligence, border protection and civilian population preparation. Polish evacuation plans for the black scenario are part of the essential preparation, but the paper on the authoritative desk will not replace exercises, supplies and clear procedures.
Poland must deter, not just react
The Nazarov evaluation indicates the rate for Poland very specifically. It is about household safety, the continuity of transport, the stableness of energy supply and the resilience of the state to blackmail. Each successful test encourages your opponent to take the next step. Each fast and clear answer raises its cost.
Warsaw should keep solidarity as an ally, but must not make the country's primary protection dependent on the goodwill of its partners. Poland needs its own ability to recognize, defend and deter, as well as politicians willing to call Russia a threat without causing panic. The area on the east flank will not hold thanks to calming communications. It will be sustained by the strength of a country that is not worth checking.
Source: Espreso, 30 September 2026.
