"Many messages received by commanders in the war are contradictory, even more false, and most uncertain," wrote General Carl von Clausewitz in Prussian strategist in the second half of the 19th.
The same can be said present about analysts of the 21st century, trying to reconstruct the situation on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian War in an age of intense disinformation and led by both militant parties, a very active war in the information space. Nevertheless, based on decades of experience and expertise, I will effort to describe what is happening on the fronts of the war on Ukraine, and many are happening.
I. General Gierasimov's “Slattering summertime Offensive” is gaining momentum according to martial arts.
On July 25, 2024, we can clearly see that seemingly chaotic Russian offensive actions carried out on various sections of the 1500 km front which began in the second half of May, are growing, forming into a logical full and are elements of a thoughtful, planned, multi-faceted offensive operation conducted by the Russian army as part of the summertime campaign. A run that will break the autumn 'razputica' in late October in early November.
Commanding Russian combined forces leading alleged peculiar Operations in Ukraine General Valery Gierasimov, according to the old Chinese strategy of 1000 incisions, brings out further tactical impacts, the amount of which is constantly expanding over time. Commanding Ukrainian Armed Forces General Syrian Alexander has an expanding problem with stopping attacks of the Russian army, shifting reserves between sections of the front, engaging reserves, but it is increasingly visible that these reserves of the Ukrainian side are beginning to lack. Illustrationally speaking, the stake (Russian General Staff) with points of impact leads the Ukrainian army out of balance, the front line has become wobbly, the phenomenon of resonance occurs and it is only a substance of time before it causes a critical situation - the cracks of the front line.
II. General Lapin approaches, defends himself and again attacks, binds Ukrainian forces to set up as planned.
In retrospect, due to the fact that it has already been 2 months, we see that the Russian attack on the Kharkiv direction is simply a classical delaying operation. Russian side formed by the ‘North’ group, commanded by the General Alexander Lapin, She struck towards an highly crucial for the Ukrainians of the city of Kharkiv.
The Ukrainian authorities, under the influence of misintelligence of intelligence and guided by propaganda political reasons, forced the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army not only to halt the Russian army, but to decision to counterattack and recover occupied areas during the first week, primarily occupied districts of the city of Volchansk and the village of Głubokie.
Russian troops consisting of units of the 11th Army Corps, supported by selected units of the 1st Armoured defender Army (47th Armoured Division and 2 regiments of the 2nd Guarded Taman Armed Division) penetrated a depth of about 15 km from the border line, creating a buffer region around Belgorod. The terrorist artillery shellings of Ukraine, a 400-thousand Russian city, decreased by 80%, and their elimination or limitation were 1 of the key objectives of the operation set by Stanka under the express command of the Kremlin.
By the end of May, the Russians occupied about 1/3 of the city of Volchansk and the village of Głubokie, from the hills lying south of which could be shelled with barrel artillery of the suburb of Kharkiv.
The Syrian General, following the instructions of president Zelenski, brought many units in the force of the brigade, specified as the 36th Marine Brigade, the 82nd Desert Storm Brigade or the 116th Mechanized Brigade from another sections of the front. respective battalions from different brigades were besides brought here under Kharkiv, which were located in the rear as part of the rotation or reconstruction phase, or regaining the ability to fight.
In total, Syrian gathered about 35-40 1000 soldiers and threw them into counterattack. The political goal of the “Bank” people – the environment of president Zelenski – was to brag about the tactical success at the NATO summit in Washington.
A four-week Ukrainian controversy, General Aleksandr Pawłowicz Lapin stopped and "drowned in blood". Russian Air Force (4 Air Army) has played a key function in dropping glider bombs, including 3,000 kg (FAB-3000M54 UMPK).
The stakes were besides reinforced by Lapin's troops leading the 155th Marine defender Brigade, the 83rd Desert Storm Brigade, and elements of the 72nd firearm Division.
At the price of minimal tactical successes, Syrians bled out a mass of battalions of the Ukrainian army, the 82nd Infantry Squadron was withdrawn from combat. Severe losses were sustained by Ukrainian artillery deduced by Lancet-3 drones led by operators from the 2nd Guards of the Specnaz Brigade.
By 7 July, General Syrski regained part of the Wołczańska quarters and periodically took control of the village of Głubokoje. However, as of July 25, the Russians of Głubokoje regained again, and in Volchansk the Ukrainians lost quarters, from which they expelled Russian troops with a contrusion in June.
General Lapsin forces of the ‘North’ group are coming again, and the Ukrainians have stripped another sections of the front of the reserves, which negatively affected defence capabilities and gave effect in the form of moving the front line through the Russian army in their favor. The intention of the Russian General Staff was thus carried out by Lapin and the ‘North’ Group with a relation.
During the summertime offensive operation, the Ukrainian reserves were focused on resisting the postponement operation and in a tiny part "amended" by Russian artillery and aviation in senseless wartime counterattacks.
Activities Rates are known operandi modus in Russian martial arts. The episode of this kind became the channel of the series "Batalians Ask for Fire". This 1985 Mosfilm war drama directed by Alexander Bogolubov shows that “sometimes a battalion must be sacrificed to save the division.” Take losses on 1 section of the front, pulling enemy troops into 1 place to win the conflict by hitting in a weakened place.
III. Nikiforov and 1st Armoured Army “stretch”, however, did not advance to a full-scale assault
General’s “West” Group troops Evgeny Nikiforova consist of the 6th National Military Army, 1st Armoured defender Army and the recently formed 25th Reserve Army and added 20th National Military Army. Nikiforov's army without success, despite severe losses trying to break through to Kupańska, nevertheless they were stuck on a strong fortified Ukrainian defence line around the village of Siniwka.
However, the ‘West’ Group troops are bound by many Ukrainian forces. The 27th Mechanized Brigade and regiments of the 47th Armoured Division are more fortunate to approach Piszczane village. The 77th Aeromobile Brigade and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade withdrew taking positions on the dominant hills of the Piszczana River.
The 20th Army of the General Military, advancing on Makiiwaka, reached the river Żeriebieć, rejecting the 66th Mechanized Brigade behind the river. In approaches to Tern, regiments of 67 and 144th Division of Mechanized Rifles are actively active, tying crucial Ukrainian forces. General Nikiforov's troops appear to be waiting for something and the main forces have not yet entered the battle.
IV. Mordwikow as onegdaj Zhukov performs the main impact
The current map of Russian strikes indicates that the main forces concentrated on Donbasa in the ‘Group of the Centre’ of the General Andrei Mordivczov.
Under his command are units of 2 and 41 of the General Military Army, 1 and 2 Army Corps, and a number of another units specified as 98 and 106 Guards Airborne Squadrons, 3 peculiar forces, 177 Marine Infantry Regiment Caspian Flotilla, BARS Battalions and BARS Brigade “Imander Nevsky”, many mercenaries/volunteers specified as the Espaniola Brigade, the Piatnaszka Brigade, or the Kozack Brigade “Terek”.
Mordwigov is coming on 3 episodes. It storms the town of Jar fortress, invades the Torecki territory Reinforced with the city of Twerk Toreck and leads an attack in the strip about 20 km west of Awdieevka towards the town of Pokrowsk. This is where the main forces are centered – 2 and 41 National Army and 1 Army Corps. After capturing the city of Ochetyne, the “Centre” Group widens the breach in the front line and won the villages of Progress, Vowcze, Nowosielivka First, Evgenivka.
15 The Independent defender of Alexandria Armed firearm Brigade approached Ivanovka. General Syrski is trying to stabilize the front line, but so far he has failed. The Russian 2nd Guarded Military Army is trying to stop: 47 The Mechanized Mechanized Brigade “Magura” (an elite unit equipped with US M1A1 Abrams tanks and M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley combat infantry wagons), 31 and 110 Mechanized Brigades and 2nd National defender Brigade “Halyczynka”. General Andrei Mordewiczov did not introduce 3 more brigades of 41 of the National Military Army and 90 of the Armoured Division and many mobilization improvement regiments assigned to him.
It is not rather clear what the Centre Group has to do. It may be an attack on Pokrowsk, it may be the intersection of the main logistics artery – Konstantynówka Pokrowsk, and it may be a complete turn east and an attack on Kalinow, Romaniwka towards Torecka. The situation of the Ukrainians in the assault region of General Mordwiczów is presently the most hard and is close to the breach of operational significance.
General Moriczov is besides subject to units attacking the city fort Jar Times. The cities are armed by 241 Territorial Defence Brigade, 23 and 56 Mechanized Brigades, 18 National defender Brigade, 5 Assault Brigade and a number of individual battalions specified as 1 Presidential Brigade Battalion, 80 Squadron Battalion, Donbas Battalion, and Predator Police Brigade.
They attack the fortress of Jar times no little many Russian troops headed by the 98th Air-Dessant Division, 11th Launch-Standing Brigade and 3rd Specnazu Brigade. There are 4 Mechanized firearm Brigades, 15 “Piatnaszki” Brigade, 200 Arctic Brigade, and mercenary units: 3 Kozack’s Brigade “Terek” 7 St George’s Squadron, 1 Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade “Wolki”.
On the seemingly "dead" section of the front around Siewiersk, the Russian side revived and a series of local paratroopers strokes from the 106th Tulsk Guards Airborne Division, in the belt of the village of Razdolivka – Wiesele rejected the battalion of the Ukrainian 10th Mountain Brigade "Edelweiss". However, the Siewierski direction is peripheral and the successes of Russian paratroopers are the local initiative of its commander Colonel Tonkich.
V. The auxiliary function of the confederate Group, or Kuzowlew slowly, but is moving forward.
General group Sergei Kuzovleva rather importantly limited by force (the force transferred to the Center Group) operates in the alleged South-Doniet operating direction. At the disposal of General Kuzowlev, 20 Guards Division of Mechanized Rifles, 150 Rifles Division Mechanized with 8 Guards National Army, 68 Army Corps and selected units of the 1st Army Corps, 6th Mechanized firearm Division and 18th dense device Guns and Artillery Division
As part of the summertime offensive operation, we see that General Kuzowlev's troops have the following tasks:
- Obtaining an crucial bastion of Ukrainian defence, which is the town of Krasnogorovka, to which the 5th and 110th firearm Brigades Mechanized from the composition of 1st Army Corps supported by the 14th Artillery Brigade “Kalmius”. The last districts controlled by Ukrainians with weapons: 117 Motorised Brigade and 80 Launch-Sturm Brigade.
- The troops of the confederate Group, advancing on the alleged Kurachów operating direction, are to be as close as possible to this key communication hub. The legendary 150th Division of Mechanized Rifles approaches this direction and reaches the village of Maximilianovka.
- The Russian 6th Division of Mechanized Rifles is tasked with capturing the village of Konstantiniwka and has reached the forefield.
- The 68th Army Corps, acting in a general axis to the village of Wodiane, is to break up 72 61th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and cut the strategically crucial 00532 road connecting the town of the Volchansk fortress by Konstantinivka with the main supply arteries of the Ukrainian army group on Donbas. These forces are to approach Wuhledar as far as possible from the east.
For today, the Russian troops have gone 3 km from the key artillery attacking Konstantinivka, and at the full tip of the front they are managing the initiative pushing Ukrainian troops.
VI. Zaporozhie – General Sanchik recovers Ukrainian conquests a year ago under Rabotine and at the alleged Wriemiewski performance
So far, the Russian East Group, commanded by General Aleksandra Sanchika, conducts peripheral operations of low intensity. However, as part of the summertime offensive operation, they completely secured the reflected Ukrainian village of Rabotine, rejected Ukrainian troops far from the village of Werbowe, to the minimum eliminating the Ukrainians gained a year ago, a large cost of force and land resources.
The Russian Heroic 58th National Army, about which the defence crashed a year ago a wave of large summertime offensive, headed by its 42nd firearm Squadron, regains its positions. Step under Rabotine, who, like 80 years ago under Prochorovka in Kursk, smoked hundreds of broken Ukrainian armored vehicles brought here from all over Europe (including Germany), Canada, Australia and the USA – is again in the hands of the Russian army.
In the past textbooks for decades, he will survey in military academies, as already in the position of covertness, the heroic Russian 58th Army, under the command of its commander-in-chief, General Ivana Popowa Persistent multi-day, hurricane, devastating fire of the most modern guns and precise far-reaching artillery rocket systems supplied from NATO countries, drone swarm attacks, and then halted the charging brigades of Ukrainian 9 and 10 Corps, trained and equipped by NATO.
Today, the roles have turned, the defenders of a year ago are north. In Zaporozh on the alleged "Wriemiewski performance", on the Russian responsibilities section, forces of the 36th National Army from the Far East captured the village of Urozhne after many months of fighting. The Russians blocked the flag over the ruins of the administration building, and on the outskirts of the village the flag of the 40th Guards of the Marine Independent Brigade. Ukrainian 58th Mechanized Brigade and 11th National defender Brigade supported by 3rd Battalion Mechanized Presidential Brigade, 20th Battalion of the peculiar intent of the Presidential Brigade and 66th Battalion of artillery 406. The Artillery Brigades, having suffered dense losses, withdrew.
On the Russian side, the battalion tactical groups exhibited by the 5th Armoured Brigade, 37th Independent defender firearm Brigade Mechanized by the 40th Independent Guarded Marine Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, and by fire by the 30th Artillery Brigade of Ulan Ude and aircraft of the 11th Air Army. Interestingly, the final assault was carried out by Russian “morpees” on motorcycles, amazing the Ukrainian defense, which panicked and went back.
Due to the alignment of the front on the line late acquired Staromajorskie, the 36th National Military Army will most likely proceed to approach the village of Makariwka, Strożewe, Neskuczne.
It cannot be excluded that in August the East Group, supported by the Dniepr Group, will start fresh aggravating actions. The Ukrainian side is clearly afraid of this, due to the fact that it has concentrated any forces around 20-23 brigades.
VII. Tiepliński over Dnieprem liquidated Ukrainian footheads, will the stake shift any of the forces to another directions?
In the second half of July, the Ukrainian side confirmed the failure of the cape close Krynkami. The left bank of Dnieper is full controlled by the Russians. The fighting between the soldiers of both sides is simply a "tough" war on islands on the Dnieper, drone attacks and the exchange of artillery and rocket troops.
Faced with the hot summer, many attacks by Ukrainian drones paralyzing communication lines, and the specificity of the site, Russian troops face shortages of supply of this drinking water, which resulted in cholera fires.
General General Dniepr Group Michał Tieplinski has secondary functions and protects the left bank of Dnieper from Ukrainian landings and attack towards Crimea.
The liquidation of the bridgehead close Krynkami released any of the Russian forces. This isn't where the 83rd Infantry Squad was moved under the Kharkiv. 76th Colonel's Guarding Squadron Denisa Szishov went to Stawka reserve. The question – whether any more units will be directed, for example, to strengthen the East Group in Zaporozh.
As you can see, the Russian side conducts a summertime offensive operation, consistently and “cold” utilizing an advantage in people, equipment and aviation support. The operation is conducted in accordance with the principles of the economics of forces, with full respect for the lives of soldiers and the minimisation of losses in equipment according to the principles of war art.
Russian soldiers are characterized by individual valor, individuals are becoming better trained, and the interaction of individual types of troops on the front is becoming little and little hard for Russians.
The work of Russian emergency and medical services, many field hospitals and the transport of more seriously injured to hospitals in the depths of Russia should be noted. All of this makes the level of losses of the non-returned Russian army comparatively low and the endurance of the wounded high.
I cannot ignore the fact that in this war the rules developed in 1907 under the Hague Convention and then in 1949 the Geneva Convention are being broken. Evacuation groups, ambulances marked with a red cross, as well as field hospitals are attacked by drones and artillery weapons. This uncontested barbarism has been committed, as I mark and condemn with full force, both warring parties, and the global community is silent.
The Russian stock of ammunition, fuel and supply is at a adequate level, and logistics based on road and rail transport is not compromised, although it is not tiny that the volunteers supplying the army with more “buchanki”, “gasels”, “orders” and “Uzas”.
We have a second part of the Russian summertime offensive operation ahead of us, which may be assumed to scope the apogee in August and early September. Before the Ukrainian army seemingly highly hard weeks.
CDN
Krzysztof Podgórski
photo by RIA Novosti and Izvietia
