"Foreign Affairs": Japan wobbles. The political crisis is ruining the stableness of the cherry blossoming country

Japan, so far seen as a pillar of the stableness of the global order, is in a serious political crisis. As Mireya Solís of Brookings Institution writes in abroad Affairs, after years of social cohesion and strong leadership, the political scene in Tokyo is fragmented and the main parties lose voter confidence.

In the last 7 decades ruling elections, the Liberal-Democratic organization (LDP) and its Comeito coalition suffered severe defeats. For the first time since the end of planet War II, the ruling coalition lost the majority in both chambers of parliament. At the same time, the "popular" and anti-immigrant Sanseito organization increased its state of ownership in the advanced chamber from 1 to fourteen mandates, gaining popularity through aggressive social media presence and the slogan "Japan First".

The weakening of the LDP is the consequence of many years of structural problems – a shrinking electoral base, corruption scandals and the failure of tools for solving interior conflicts after the liquidation of the faction system. In turn, Comeito, associated with the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, loses support due to the stagnation of membership and the deficiency of charismatic leadership.

Inflation, the highest in decades, has besides affected social sentiment, which has undermined government confidence. The LDP's decision to offer one-off cash withdrawals alternatively of a simplification in the consumer taxation was criticised as evidence of power being cut off from citizens' regular problems. At the same time, nearly half of the voters admitted that electoral preferences were made on the basis of social media content, which favours fresh groups.

Sanseito's increasing popularity is due, among others, to a violent influx of foreigners to Japan – in the last 3 years the number of abroad residents has increased by a million. The organization exploits social concerns about competition in the labour marketplace and cultural change, but its pro-Russian statements and the highly conservative program may, according to the author, limit the sustainability of support.

However, the biggest challenge for Japan remains the deficiency of strong leadership. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, despite election failures, refuses to step down, and the profoundly divided LDP is incapable to identify its successor. The ruling coalition has lost its ability to regulation independently, and the fragmented opposition cannot make an alternate majority.

According to Solís, the leadership crisis weakens Tokyo's global position. Japan must respond to the increasing protectionism of the United States – as illustrated by the July trade agreement with Washington, which includes tariffs on nipponese goods, commitments to acquisition American gas and agri-food products, and multi-billion-dollar investment in the US on terms not favourable to Tokyo. With Japan's weak decision centre, it will be hard to defend economical interests and safety effectively.

According to the author of the article in abroad Affairs, if nipponese political elites do not regain the assurance of voters through real reforms and a clear economical strategy, Tokyo may lose its ability to act as a stabilizer of global order. In an increasingly unstable and authoritarian world, this would be dangerous not only for Japan but besides for the full Indo-Pacific region.

Source: abroad Affairs

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