In the elections to the European Parliament, Jarosław Kaczyński repeated the same mistakes he made six months ago. The electoral letters were constructed to satisfy the president alternatively than the voters, as a consequence of which the PiS bastions begin to crumble, and the triumph in the presidential election is increasingly drifting away. If, on the another hand, Belveder falls into the hands of KO in 2025, then Donald Tusk will do real dewriting without holding.
The Law and Justice have lost for the first time in a decade, but the disaster cannot be mentioned. In fact, at first glance, the consequence of the Kaczyński Formation is rather good – after 8 years of government 36 percent looks solid. After all, the Civic Coalition only gained a percent point more.
However, the real situation of the largest Polish right-wing organization is much worse than it might initially seem. Jarosław Kaczyński, in his post-election speech, de facto stated that nothing had happened, we had a good consequence (as he estimated after a fewer days – “the failure is apparent). In addition, 1 more minute – he assured – and we will scope the goal. And what is the purpose? hard to say. His speech after the announcement of the results was like a full series of speeches at the Smolensk marches, erstwhile he assured his supporters that we were already approaching the truth, just a small more religion and we would scope the goal. Just as he has had the Smolensk communities for years, so now they have the voters of his party. Kaczyński rushes ahead, but seemingly has no thought in which direction.
Privates on electoral lists
These PiS elections could have won. It could, but it did not win due to the fact that Jarosław Kaczyński is unreformable and made the same mistake that he made in October during the parliamentary election, erstwhile individual gameplay was more crucial to him than the party's good score. A classical example is the figure of Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski, who, for his opposition to the "fifty for animals", was thrown to symbolic 5th place on the list. 1 of the most popular MPs of the organization and the best rated (former) ministers was consciously humiliated by Kaczyński, due to the fact that the president would not let any murmuring and attention. The organization is to be criminal and obedient. Even as the president pushes a mad thought like the said "five for animals" or correspondence choices.
And now the same "Ardanovsky maneuver" has been repeated only on an even larger scale. Prof. Ryszard Legutko was publically humiliated and after years of cooperation he was de facto expelled from the organization and replaced with a organization assassin – Dominik Tarczyński. In addition, prof. Zdzisław Krasnodębski had to say goodbye to Brussels. And that's inactive just the beginning. For how can 1 explain the dedication of Warsaw’s “one” to Małgorzata Gosievska? Or pushing for Brussels again (no change in 20 years!) Ryszard Czarnecki? Why was Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, 1 of the fewer substantive Polish Euro MPs, pushed to second place in Lublin, alternatively of beginning the list (though on this Mazowsz alternatively of Gosiewska)? And yet the cherry on the cake – why were the letters treated as a lifeline for Mariusz Kamiński, Michał Wąsik or Daniel Obietek? Why was there a place on the list for Jack Kurski and why was it number two? Why did Kaczyński insist on pushing for Anna Fotyga's candidacy, who in fresh years had no merit for the party, and for most voters, I guess, is already an anonymous character? The explanation is very simple:
Let's take a look. Patrick Jaka, who should be a locomotive, was thrown in second place. You know, Ziebra's man, he can't be trusted, there's nothing to reward. Instead, Jadwiga Wiśniewska opened the list. He himself has collected over 260 1000 votes, which is an absolutely phenomenal result, 1 of the highest in Poland and the highest in the past of all the "twos" to the Europarliament. So you can hazard the thesis that if he had been given a place at the top, his score, and so the full list, would have been even better.
An even clearer example – Waldemar Buda, who from the 5th place entered the Europarliament. On the same list the stake was opened by Witold Waszczykowski, and the second place was given to Joanna Lichock, which looked like an thought suggested by Donald Tusk himself. Let us look at the divided of votes: Waszczykowski in the first place – 50,000 votes; Lichocka in the second – 40,000 votes; Milchanowska in the 3rd – 17 1000 votes (!); Telus at the 4th – 35 1000 votes; Buda at the 5th – 103 1000 votes... As we can see on the hand, who should open the list, be a locomotive, set the speech of the full run in the region, and who should be kept to the background.
And 1 more subject doesn't matter.. During the election, the President's denominations – Beata Szydło passed the drain of almost half of voters compared to the results of 2019, while the faction of Mateusz Morawiecki was strengthened. erstwhile Prime Minister introduced respective of his protégés to Brussels – Michał Dworczyk defeated Beata Kempa, Piotr Muller was superior to Anna Fotyga, and Waldemar Buda distanced Witold Waszczykowski. In turn, the Justice Fund case may not have sunk the PiS, but it surely did not improve the situation of Morawiecki's enemies in the United Right.
This complicates the substance so much that it will be very hard to convince the Confederate electorate to vote in Morawiecki in the second circular of elections. And it is hard to decently say which branch will be more skeptical here: a national 1 who cannot forgive him for deserting the EU, or a liberal 1 accusing him of "socialism".
Bastions Failed
Kaczyński cannot announce a tenth triumph in a row, which means that he loses a very crucial argument in his interior games. So far, he may have argued that PiS is the biggest organization in Poland. This was the case in the course of the parliamentary elections, and at local level. The president may have been hiding that in the end he needs to be listened to, as he guarantees an advantage over KO. That's out of date.
But let's decision on. The current strategy is not only the localized letters and the failure of the advantage over the KO, but besides the full turnout defeat of the PiS. The village and the east of Poland, celebrated bastions of Law and Justice, remained in their homes. There was surely any influence on the selection of candidates for the EP, possibly a mediocre run (it is hard to do so explicitly), possibly – even though it is the least – matters of the Justice Fund or the Red is Bad brand. First of all, however, it seems that it was the past that got the PiS. Kaczyński has been desperately trying to escape the charges of accepting his government for the Green Deal for the past fewer months, but yet reality caught up with it. The Law and Justice on European affairs was simply unbelievable.
However, the most disturbing to the right is the demobilization of bastions. After all, if traditionally the Pisan communities moved a small bit more crowded to the urns, Kaczyński would easy jump the PO. Something moved here and a disturbing convention began. If Kaczyński is serious about getting Belvedere, he must act now to halt this trend.
Doubtful Self-sufficiency of Duckism
Speaking of the Confederacy, let's note the information that electrified the media – KO, yes, wins the election, but if we converted the support into seats for the Sejm, then the PiS Confederacy coalition would gain power. Of course, another ordination, turnout, political dynamics etc. That's all true, but elections are inactive the best test of real support for the party. Especially considering the fresh IPSOS compromise.
This information about the recalculation of the mandates has made peace and bliss among the PiS politicians. If we look at the writing twitter, we'll read that Tusk is expected to be the first on the finish line, but eventually, he'll lose power.
The problem is that in order for this to happen, even if the seats in the Sejm would actually be so distributed at the next hand, it takes 2 to tango, and the Law and Justice Department has done absolutely nothing to convince the Confederate. Janusz Kowalski late wrote that PiS must go alone, fight for the independent majority and not look at Bosak and Mentzen's party. And it seems that, in this case, she expressed a common belief in the party. And surely in Jarosław Kaczyński, who is incapable to cooperate. Everything or nothing – this is the only political doctrine of the leader of PiS.
The United Right acts like Bosak voters will vote for them anyway. If in the second circular they will have the choice of a writer's candidate and, for example, Rafał Trzaskowski, they will bite their teeth and vote. Only that's not true. Confederate electorate grows mostly from anti-POPiS emotions and can revolt by staying home. Moreover, a crucial part of it can go to the polls and even support the candidate of the Civic Platform. This was the case in 2020 erstwhile the Confederate voters divided almost half, and respective 100 1000 votes of the "cross-right" went to Rafał Trzaskowski. In addition to the fact that politics can be bribed with positions and apanases in just 1 meeting, the electorate cannot be convinced. Voters, if they've been insulted by a organization for months, they won't abruptly like it due to the fact that politician X got any kind of gratification.
Now Kowalski writes not to approach the Confederate, but to take over her electorate. But how would that work? PiS has been busy for months with the heroic defence of Mariusz Kamiński and the action of Jack Kurski's authority restaurant. Why would a Confederate vote for them? Or, due to the fact that that's besides an crucial theme, why would a PSL voter and Holownia do that, who will besides request PiS.
Kaczyński is unreformable, and the fresh elections proved this beyond doubt. The strategy pursued by the Law and Justice in fresh months is simply a simple way to displease the PiS candidate of the full political center.
Both the GO electorate and politicians themselves request revenge on writers. They talk about it in radio interviews, they tweet, they shout at rallies. They want blood, they want convictions, they want revenge for 8 years of humiliation. If the right hand fails to defend Belvedere, this desire will be brutally and effectively satisfied.
photo: X/ @pisorgpl
