"Fiodor Lukjanov: Liberal Order is over and created this unexpected problem global policy has become a theatre masking interior weakness"

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Written by Fyodor Łukjanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, president of the abroad and Defence Policy Council Bureau, and manager of investigation at the Welsh global Discussion Club.

Russia in Global Affairs

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Liberal order is over.Property has been abandoned, rules forgotten, and borders no longer mean what they erstwhile did.Strength inactive exists, but peace lives only in the imagination of those who cling to old slogans.What we call "international situation" is simply a performance without a script.The task is to describe and realize it.

The Wałdaj global Discussion Club publishes a study all year on the state of the planet system.This year's article – with the eloquent title "Dr Chaos, or how to halt worrying and love disorder" – asks the question whether the planet has entered a revolutionary situation that would lead to a completely fresh order.The answer is no.The changes are extremist and frequently alarming, but not revolutionary.Why?Because the strategy is not unjust in an unbearable way for any of the key players.It's decomposable, but it's not unbearable adequate to require overthrow.The institutions are weakening, many of them survived only by name, but no 1 is trying to completely destruct them.Even the most destructive U.S. administration in fresh years – Donald Trump – has never attempted a thorough redevelopment.Washington just ignores restrictions erstwhile it's in his best interests.This is not due to the fact that global powers have become cautious or responsible.This is due to the fact that order has become besides complex to be dismantled.The “mountain”, erstwhile embodyed by the ruling powers, is no longer able to exercise actual hegemony.The United States is the most apparent example of this: they deficiency money, the interior driving force, and even the will to control the planet as before.However, the “down”, the alleged global majority, besides does not request revolution.Emerging countries see besides much hazard in full decline.They'd alternatively climb ladder levels in old frames than completely teardrop them down.The Waldaj study cites the Leninian definition of the revolutionary situation here: the ruling class must be incapable to govern as before, while the rulers must request change.Today, the first condition exists, but the second does not.Most countries like to gradually upgrade their position without hazard of breaking up the full system.

Multipolar confusion The transition from hegemony to multipolarity is deep, but multipolarity is not yet an order.It is simply a liquid, confusing and non-linear environment.The instability is multiplying due to the fact that the planet is more connected than ever, and at the same time more marked by conflicts.For countries, interior stableness has become more crucial than external ambitions.Governments around the world, including Russia, are now putting interior improvement and resilience ahead of dreams of global dominance.What makes this transformation extraordinary is that it is not driven by ideological revolutionaries.China, a increasing giant, does not effort to transform the planet into their own image.They adapt to the circumstances and effort to minimize the cost of being in the center.Transformation is nonsubjective – it is simply a consequence of economic, social, cultural and technological changes that happen simultaneously but are not synchronized.Only artificial intelligence, as joked by the Waldaj report, could 1 day calculate the vector sum of all these forces.Meanwhile, abroad policy is not weakening.On the contrary, global activity has never been greater.But his mark has changed.States no longer dream of a complete victory.They aim for a gradual advantage – tiny adjustments, favourable conditions in the close future, continuous negotiations supported by pressure.The United States, for example, knows that they cannot defend their dominance, as has happened in the past.Russia will besides not hazard its socio-economic stableness for a decisive triumph on the battlefield.Nuclear deterrence makes a full-scale war with major powers unthinkable.Israel can proceed to act as if it could permanently change the position quo and Azerbaijan regained control of Karabach.But they're exceptions.For most, global policy returns to the positional confrontations of the 18th century: bloody fights, yes, but seldom to complete destruction.The concept of annihilation of the enemy, born in the 20th century, is improbable to return.Resistance in chaos This widespread instability shows how profound changes are.But here's the paradox: the modern planet is amazingly resilient.It bends under pressure, but it doesn't break.Its resilience is not due to nostalgia behind order created in the West or the desire to preserve institutions that no longer fulfil their task.It is due to the complexity of the modern planet and the interior improvement of states.

Resistance is so not a strategy but a necessity.Governments request to adapt to changes they have no control over.They can't reconstruct the old order, but they can't afford a revolution either.The consequence is simply a kind of stubborn endurance, stubbornness in the pursuit of survival, even erstwhile solid foundations are lacking.This explains why today's abroad policy frequently resembles theatre: continuous movement, continuous crisis, dramatic talk about threats and enemies.In fact, the countries are focused on themselves.External maneuvers service interior purposes.Even military operations, nevertheless destructive, frequently search not direct conquest, but to strengthen interior stableness or divert attention from interior weakness.The Future of the 18th Century If this model continues, global policy will be more like the 18th century than the 20th century.Competition will be fierce, wars will erupt, but direct conquests will be rare.The “World Order” will be a little structured and more variable balance in which large and tiny players will gotta adapt to survive.Meanwhile, the West has lost its monopoly on shaping global rules.He is inactive talking about defending the “liberal order”, but this order is over.No fresh order has yet replaced him.Multipolarity is not a strategy – it is simply a deficiency of it.For some, it is frightening.It's liberating to others.Waldaj's study states that we are witnessing not a fall, but a transformation – a revolution without revolutionaries.The top authorities can no longer rule.Most downstairs don't want to rebel.The planet is trapped between, chaotic, and at the same time permanent, unstable, and at the same time strangely resilient.This is simply a reality that we must accept: the liberal order of the planet has passed away, and what will happen next is unknown.We can surely say that there will be little universal rules in global politics and more endurance of nations.The old dream of peace through domination is over.There remains a constant, fierce competition – 1 that Russia and the remainder of the planet must learn to endure.This article was originally published in Profile magazine and was translated and edited by RT team.