Economists from Credit Agricole Bank Polska reviewed their GDP dynamics forecasts for the current and future years. At present, economical growth is projected to be 2.3% y/y in 2024, compared to the previously forecasted 2.8%. For 2025 the forecast was reduced to 3.5% y/y from earlier 4.6%.
A squad of economists shows that the main trends in GDP component formation in 2024 remained mostly unchanged, but they anticipate a smaller recovery from 2024 to 2025 than previously expected. The monthly data for fresh months were disappointing, which forced the growth forecast for the second 4th to fall from 2.5% y/y to 2.3% y/y. The external environment, including the fall in fresh orders and employment in the euro area, especially in Germany, besides had a negative impact on the forecasts.
Investments and consumption
Credit Agricole lowered full investment forecasts, providing for a decrease in gross fixed capital investments in 2024 by 2.0% y/y, compared to an increase of 13.1% in 2023. The main reason is the lower dynamics of business investment and delays in the implementation of projects financed by EU funds. In turn, consumption, driven by fast increases in real wages, will stay the main driver of economical growth, although there is simply a increasing tendency to save at the expense of current consumption. The consumption dynamics forecast for 2024 is 3.8% y/y, compared to a 1.0% decrease in 2023.
Forecasts for 2025
For 2025, economists forecast GDP growth of 3.5% y/y, with the main driver of economical growth in the form of a recovery of full investment, which is expected to increase by 9.1% y/y. This recovery will be supported by increased usage of EU funds and investments by businesses and households. Nevertheless, delays in the implementation of infrastructure projects may limit the scale of this recovery. Credit Agricole analysts keep the monetary policy scenario, awaiting the start of the policy mitigation cycle by the MPC only in the second half of 2025. Exchange rate forecasts presume a gradual appreciation of the gold, with a rate of EUR/PLN of 4,24 at the end of 2024 and 4,20 at the end of 2025.
Analysis of the Central Statistical Office
As we informed, according to the Central Statistical Office, the Polish economy almost did not grow last year, but stagnant. It hasn't been that bad in 2 decades. According to the preliminary estimation of GUS The Polish Gross National Product rose in 2023 by just 0.2% compared to 2022. This means the lowest rate of improvement since Poland's entry into the European Union. The Polish economy has severely slowed down. In 2022, GDP growth year to year reached a advanced level of 5.3%.
Reading the GUS is simply a surprise for analysts who forecast an increase of at least 0.5%. Money.pl quoted the opinion of the survey squad mBank – "The growth in 2023 was only 0.2%. That means the 4th fourth was weak. Component results in 2023: private consumption -1%, investments +8%, home request -4.1%".
Summary
The fresh forecasts of Credit Agricole Bank Polska indicate a slowdown in economical growth in 2024, with average recovery in 2025. The main challenges are lower investment and external economical difficulties that can affect growth dynamics. Nevertheless, consumption will stay a key driver of growth and full investment will be a crucial driver of the economy in the coming years.
All these forecasts and analyses show the complex economical situation which Poland will gotta face in the coming years. Economists will watch closely how economical reality affects these forecasts and how future economical results will shape.
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Economists lower GDP forecasts for Poland
