Observers and researchers from different parts of the planet mostly agree that this time, after Afghanistan, after Iraq, after Vietnam, etc. The U.S. can no longer afford to lose face in Ukraine or Palestine at a time erstwhile any sober analyst knows that the Ukrainian military is no longer able to win the war, which means that the U.S., on the 1 hand, is in a situation where they can make 2 utmost but irrational decisions: either an overt surrender or an atomic planet war.
So if the elites of the Potomac reject the script of the planet atomic war and the demolition of humanity and are incapable to accept the script of the authoritative transition to the secondary power level immediately, there are respective another intermediate scenarios.
Inevitable Retreat
If we presume that in order to save their own authority, the U.S. must first of all not lose face due to the fact that they besides gotta save for any time and partially although the position of the wobbly and so dollar; they actually have 2 options. Or they will accept the fact that there must be a real retreat from Dnieper, and may then consider the anticipation of shifting their forces to another war theatre (Eastern Asia, Sahel Africa, Central Asia, Caucasus, Palestine and Syria?), so as to distract the planet from Ukraine to another direction. Their strength will be as short as for economical reasons, as it has been proven since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine with its own limited capacity for arms production. This script is besides not in the interest of Russia, China, Iran, or another players (at most, of Sahel Africa as “a far distant world”).
New Perejasław settlement
There is another scenario: the US, together with Russia and China, decides to compromise in Ukraine, which will save the face of each organization with the actual triumph of Russia. So Russia stops what it has already gained, while a fresh government is being created in Kiev, ready for any fresh “Perejassavian” agreement with Russia, with the then predictable “rebellion” of the nationalist east Galicia, the Russian Zakarpacie and Romanian-speaking Bukovina districts, which would mean the annexation of these 2 provinces as secessional states to the EU and NATO (as far as Bukovina, alongside Moldova without Transnistria, can be considered a script of joining Romania, and so besides to the EU and NATO). These areas of today's western Ukraine will, yes, become an economical ballast on the EU's periphery, but it is hard to drink beer, even if it is fermented besides hard. This script will save the face of the Western bloc, since it will formally grow to the East. And it can be assumed that Ukraine's public opinion will yet reconcile with the fresh "Perejassavian" arrangement, as a consequence of the social state of depression, where the tremendous demographic losses suffered by the Ukrainians will be highlighted as a consequence of the maneuvering of the Ukrainians in the interests of US hegemony since 2014 and economical chaos as a consequence of this policy. Kind of like Japan or Germany after the defeat of 1945, or Poles after the defeat of the AK, the plan “Burza” and “Lords of London” in 1945... In principle, “why did we request all this? Why did our stupid elites and our cynical oligarchs lead us into this swamp due to this ‘euromaidan’ that was in the interests of the United States in total?’
Chinese equivalent
In the first script of the full East-West war, Poland will be a "natural shield" of Russian atomic weapons next to Ukraine. With the second and 3rd countries, Poland next to Ukraine, will become a peripheral state of the already clearly falling European (especially German!) economy, and thus would besides become countries "without value" in a fresh planet power system, and thus without "investment"... unless – and this is another regional script – in Warsaw or / and Kiev, politicians will come to power according to Robert Ficy in Slovakia, Viktor Orbán in Hungary or Aleksandra Lukashenka in Belarus, who will be able to realize that, in any case, gradually leaving the U.S. scene from a local European or even global scene, the only way to counter the expanding influence of the "only" Russia in the region is to establish a strategical alliance for counterweight with China primarily, and along the way besides with Iran, Turkey and another "neutral" or "uninvolved" expanding regional powers. Then Poland, like Belarus and Ukraine, will become a "outbreak" of the Chinese economy that saves (in its own interest) the European economy destroyed by current energy prices and wars for the US. This will let for relaxation in relations with Russia forced by a real arrangement of forces to accept in turn its function as the strategical power of the "second league".
Cybernetic Socialism
Of course, what I am writing here makes sense in the context of a situation in which suffocated monopolistic and global capitalism will last for any time in Russia, Turkey, etc. due to the fact that as the "revolution" seeks to build a fresh planned economy and a new, "cybernetic" form of socialisation of strategical means of production and exchange according to trends that are becoming visible again in the planet in the name of the policy of re-industrialisation of developed countries. In Russia, but besides in the West, especially among young people, there will then be a completely different planet order based on the principles of common cooperation and ‘win-win’. It is most likely besides early for that, but let us conclude this article with the conventional Polish slogan of the pre-war left: “Free with the Free! Equally equal!’
Prof. Bruno Drwęski
