We're not utilized to the “war on top” and the tensions caused by the duality of the Polish execution. For a long 13 years and 8 months, the Presidential Palace and the President's Chancellery with a fewer weeks' break in 2015 were in the hands of 1 political camp. The fresh co-habitation reminds of the shortcomings of the Constitution of the 3rd Republic of Poland. It besides means that Andrzej Duda found himself at the most hard but besides the most interesting minute of his presidency. The question of his future after August 2025 will besides increasingly be repeated. small wonder, then, that the President's interview on Channel Zero has received 1.8 million views within 24 hours of publication.
Andrzej Duda in Lech Kaczyński's shoes
One of the key differences between the situation after winning the Law and Justice in 2015 and the centre-left coalition headed by the PO in 2023 is simple – then presidential and parliamentary elections were held right next to each other, so 1 camp could simultaneously take over both centres of power. In his first word of office, erstwhile he besides controlled the Senate, he could pass laws even in days or days. At that time, the acquisition of institutions by the Law and Justice Offices in legally dubious situations put the judicial authorities in the lead with the Constitutional Tribunal and the ultimate Court. The current coalition does not have the anticipation to adopt laws without reaching a deal with the President. In order to get the comparative comfort of government which Jarosław Kaczyński had in 2015-19, Donald Tusk must so keep a "anti-scriptive" emotion in society from October 2023 to May 2025. These 19 months are small and much.
The fresh Prime Minister drew the consequences from this by deciding to face Andrzej Duda and setting him in a brake position, on which the deficiency of implementation of elements of the program could be shed. The president is to be perceived as a “written gold”, which “disturbs”, defends his “written dudes” and the slogan of the removal, which “after all” from power will be a tool for maintaining anti-written mobilization in 2025. Excessive attempts to get along and compromise with the “written” president could reduce the level of electoral enhancement and increase the hazard of extending cohabitation in 2025. For both parties, the situation is kind of natural – Tusk did the same between November 2007 and April 2010. The current president was then a minister at Lech Kaczyński. It seems that this period and the drama of the Smolensk disaster powerfully affected his psyche – he frequently returns in his statements to these 2 years, and in an interview with Stanowski and Mazurka he did it again.
During 8 years of co-existence with the PiSu government, president Duda made respective crucial vetoes – on the part of the judiciary, posthumous degradation or so-called. lex BlackWhich helped him keep his popularity somewhat higher than the camp he came from. In comparison, Bronisław Komorowski did not argue Prime Minister Tusk in any crucial matter, which did not aid him fight for re-election. In general, however, Duda was mainly visible ‘over’ or ‘under’ national stage. On the 1 hand, on the global phase – NATO summits, speeches at the UN, meetings with Donald Trump, and late a large commitment to relations with Ukraine and personally with Volodymyr Zelenski. From the second gathering with residents of tiny and medium-sized towns, beginning exhibitions, cultural and typical activity and celebrated visit to all districts promised in 2015. Duda was happy to return to both threads in a Saturday interview. Now, however, it has to deal very straight in a ruthless fight at central level with a hard and experienced opponent.
Duda and the young gave the Law and Justice power
But why did Andrzej Duda end up in the eye of the cyclone today? It is worth remembering the circumstances in which he became President. Without that campaign, there most likely wouldn't be 8 years of PiSu. Even if Jarosław Kaczyński's organization managed to form a government after the autumn parliamentary elections, it would be a full word blocked by Komorowski's veto. More likely, however, that the situation would match the current 1 – PiS would have the highest score, but PO would form a multiparty eclectic majority. Who knows – possibly the decision to appoint a candidate on 11 November 2014 was crucial in Jarosław Kaczyński's life due to the fact that she gave him 8 years of power?
It was mainly Duda and his staff in 2015 that dropped the stigma of the inept and embarrassing organization from the PiS, beginning her way to power. A young, cool, smiling doctor of law with a well-presenting wife and daughter was a clear contrast with 2 decades of older, committing further blunders and incapable to even communicative usage of the English language Bronisław Komorowski. The second wrote, as 1 leftist publicist erstwhile put it, in the archetype of an evil uncle telling another embarrassing jokes at a wedding from which we would be happy to escape. Social fatigue The Platform after 8 years was visible, but insufficient to win just adequate not to be PO. Holding a branch with 1 hand and 3 fingers of formation would not have been able to push into a gap if it were not for an attractive, expressive and enthusiastic alternate option.
An crucial feature of Duda was his “memicity” (another feature he noted in the interview). On the net there were another “censodes” – memes that frequently exploit the rich mimes of the PiSu candidate. There were besides another semi-ironically supporting songs of a candidate like “You Are Duda” published between I and II circular of elections. A song containing verses specified as “Not brunettes, not blondes – I like Duda” or “hair shines in the sun, I can’t take my eyes off / due to the fact that you’re specified a Duda that Bronisław is in amok” to this day it has filled about 6 million views. A young politician has entered pop culture.
Personally, I remember this situation well, due to the fact that I myself was among young people excited about the first electoral cycle in which we could participate. On Duda and against Komorowski in II circular there was a leftist or Liberal fellow who, a fewer months later, had already voted for Together and Modern. "Censoduds" were besides frequently exchanged by those most reluctant to PiS, who stood by Komorowski. The temper for change was peculiarly strong in my Krakow, where Andrzej Duda came from.
It should be remembered that the final triumph of the PiSu candidate was not advanced – 51.5% to 48.5%. The Kaczyński organization has not yet had the iron support of valued pensioners after 2015. But Andrzej Duda, who presented himself as a fresh quality, was able to get sympathy from a large number of disappointed or tired A platform of neutral, centre-right, liberal and left-wing voters and supporters tougher than PiSu right-wing. He was able to find himself in parallel in agrarian harvests and to get acceptance of part of the large-town intelligence (he himself is simply a doctor of the Jagiellonian University from a professorial family). His kind of being did not origin discomfort to any crucial social group. At the same time, he convinced the clear majority of voters collecting very different groups of "anti-system" Paweł Kukiz (59%), quite a few sympathizers of another candidates of the present centreleft camp (41% Magdalena Ogórek from the SLD, 40% Adam Jarubas from the PSL, 15% Janusz Palikot) and the lion's majority of supporters of the environment who later formed the Confederacy (85% Grzegorz Braun, 80% Marian Kowalski from the National Movement, 72% Janusz Korwin-Mikke and 61% Jack Wilk).
Man Against Machines
In 2020, the president obtained re-election with a somewhat reduced but akin advantage – 50.9% to 49.1%. The structure of his support was clearly different – closer to what is stereotypically "written". The younger the voters, the higher the support for the PO candidate – this time he represented the change. After his first term, Duda had much higher support among the elders and residents of the smaller towns who felt the beneficiaries of PiSu's rule. With 43.5% it was much easier to scope 50.1% than with 34.8%, which he obtained in the first circular 5 years earlier.
In last year's elections to the Sejm, Kaczyński's organization explicitly set the full operation and consolidation of the base electorate groups alternatively than parallel drawing from different sources as in 2015. This maneuver brought him defeat and failure of power. But the fact is what he said in our pages in December Jan Rokita – for PiSu, a bigger problem than the incorrect run was acoality. The hypothetical “Coalition of Polish Affairs” with the Confederate and PSL would have a majority in the Sejm, and 35% is in explanation an excellent starting point for forming a government. However, there are no willing to cooperate with Jarosław Kaczyński, widely seen as a politician seeking to destruct or dominate another methods available, incapable to partner. Just like I wrote three days after the election in the analysis of PiSu defeat “Tusk, of course, tries to force its coalitions to submit to himself, but does not cross a certain line.”
Andrzej Duda became president due to the fact that he is not Jarosław Kaczyński. In an interview with Stanowski and Mazurek, he clearly stood up to the “two alpha males” who hatred opposition and do not want to share power with anyone. He dressed up as “a cool, human Andrew who has a distance to himself and with whom it would be good to have a beer.” A warm, authentic man of blood and bone, who would willingly go up into the mountains and remainder from all this politics or drive himself in a car, which he is tired of erstwhile he cannot go without protection even to the toilet. A man distinctly different from 2 shelling machines for decades.
In the margins, 1 might add that a individual who can kind a boy from the yard and show his heart with his hands Tusk is of these 2 machines anyway more human, which is why he wins more often. Duda yet pointed out that the president of the Law and Justice organization as the current Prime Minister lost the presidential election erstwhile they tried their forces in 2005 and 2010. You can decision on. Bronisław Komorowski and Lech Kaczyński were neither alphas, and in another tours they defeated these machines. Aleksander Kwasniewski – not Leszek Miller – became president of Poland. It would besides be provocative to note that in the presidential clashes in the PiS duopol era he won 3 out of 4 times – he lost only erstwhile the president competed personally. It seems that Poles want a monarch-president, a host who reigns more than he rules, but is besides no puppet.
Is the 2015 coalition to be played?
Duda – as he himself noted on Channel Zero – is now a "grandfather". In 2015, in the first presidential election, his daughter's generation voted – now people will do so a decade younger. It will never have a fresh effect again. However, he is inactive the most popular politician of his camp and more than another "writer", a simple extension of Jarosław Kaczyński's will. He is besides the head of state and is able to usage the magic of this office, discussing the majesty of the Republic, obligations towards officials and bodyguards serving you, or mysterious recesses of the Presidential Palace. This was shown well by the number of comments on Saturday's interview, which blamed Stanowski or Mazurka for their outfits and manners. “You went to the President!” "I don't like Duda, but you could dress better with the president." "The mazurek can't even halt the president." Again – 2 million views did not come out of nowhere.
The head of state against the background of his camp stands out all the more due to the fact that in the other direction he went out equally or even more "urban, European and non-radical" Mateusz Morawiecki. A presidential candidate who has been a associate of the organization for many years tried to make a certain distinction. Prime Minister coming to PiSu deus ex machine On the contrary – prove that he is simply a writer. His goal was not to scope 50.1% of voters, but to convince Jarosław Kaczyński and part of the organization apparatus that he is his and has the right to be a dolphin. The final illustration of this process was a celebrated debate on TVP and embarrassing words about the “red banda” and “genes you will not deceive”.
It's the first president that's done it. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed king – in the face of the demonic Tusk's taking over of the affairs of the erstwhile vetoes disappeared on a further plan. In addition, Andrzej Duda extended the life of the PiSu government to a maximum, and then became active in the affairs of Kamiński and Wąsik and public media. This message cost Duda the assurance of any average voters, but cemented the sympathy of the organization base. Of course, the president is and will be treated hostilely by the recipients active opponents of PiSu. Their voice is Roman Gierty, joking on Twitter in the context of an interview for Channel Zero that Andrzej Duda will be able to remainder sometime, but in prison.
However, this conversation with Stanowski and Mazurek is an apparent effort to return to being a "cool, loose Andrzej" from 2015 and to scope the younger recipient without strong political preferences. The recipients of the popular Zero Channel are mostly young men. Something for something – the President's performance will aid Krzysztof Stanowski publicize his own semi-ironically given political ambitions. In my erstwhile text, I mentioned a hypothetical "right-wing hoard". The disregard of candidate Stanowski would be in my opinion a mistake akin to the disregard of the current talker of the Sejm.
The deficiency of a government of PiSu Duda may effort to turn to its advantage by seeking to drop the name “the Kaczyński long description”. The president, however, made it clear that the president of the Law and Justice organization resented him for his independence. 1 can besides see the desire to build a individual coalition capacity in the spirit of “a coalition of Polish matters”. He spoke positively about the thought of a constitutional reset proposed by Krzysztof Bosak and expressed his conviction of good cooperation with the government on the military and safety section – the Minister of Defence is Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, a longtime friend of the president from Małopolska.
What about the president?
This will not be easy, of course. possibly Prime Minister Tusk will effectively pin on Duda a “brake” description defending his fellows – besides in the eyes of people orbiting the 3rd Way today. The national environment may remind him of the deficiency of an invitation to the Committee of the centennial anniversary of regaining independency for the organizers of the independency March, the unwritten conservative signing of the In vitro Refund Act, or the openness to the "status of the nearest person", and the conservative liberals' commitment to the "written socialism". The President, however, is not playing for everyone to love him, but to be more and more acceptable than PiSu as specified and his politicians. A loud message about Crimea can aid him to get free of the unreflexively proukrainian policy as the social temper evolves.
We'll most likely have an effort to advance Dudy 2.0 next year. For today, Tobias Bocheński seems most likely, who seems to enjoy the greater sympathy of the president Kaczyński than Kacpra Plażyński. However, the thought of this Bocheński is to first exposure Rafal Trzaskowski to any defeat in the fight for the presidency of Warsaw – even if he stood on his head, he will not get a better consequence than 35%, he will most likely lose in the first round, and then after a fewer months he will gotta compete against the same Trzaskowski at national level. It will be interesting if the current president decides to support the PiSu candidate and nevertheless active in his campaign. Aleksander Kwasniewski in 2005 supported Marek Borowski, but this did not bring him luck.
If the Platform truly wanted to put the former, comparatively popular president behind bars, the effect could be the other of the intended – Duda is not Kamiński. It is doubtful that a 53-year-old pensioner would take an global position, even little without the support of his own government. Nor will he have the chance to cut off tickets by doing business in post-Soviet countries. There is no faction or trust in the PiSu camera. It can, however, retreat to Krakow (or to a clearing in Gorce) and wait for further improvement of the situation – more in the context of 2027 than 2025. Observe the common slaughter of competitors on the agenda after president Kaczyński and the possible decomposition of the camp. From a distance act as a guardian of the winning expression and build your legend. In spirit – here I am, unburdened by the defeat of 2023, the face of success from 2015, the head of the armed forces during their expansion, the only politician outside Kwasniewski who received 50.1% of the Polish vote twice...
In an interview with Stanowski Duda, he pointed out that he was never long unemployed. It's hard to imagine him straight engaging in a dirty organization game – but he may effort to impose himself as a "least dividing" frontmanif no winning bulldog can dominate the others from above the carpet. Kwasniewski kind in 2007 patronizing the Left and Democrats. Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was a post-president MP and Euro MP. Andrew Johnson Senator. John Quincy Adams as an MP. Raymond Poincaré in France is the prime minister of 20 years – as many as 4 governments.
This is not likely, but it is besides not excluded. small is excluded in the coming times of chaos and shuffling.
