Where is the OGB going?

A real media and net storm was caused by the latest survey of the National investigation Group, which to this day by the right-wing parties was considered the most credible "progenitory". A completely different light on the OGB and at the same time the informing threw Marcin Palade, known statistic and sociologist. In an interview with Radio WNET Palade he recalled who the head of the OGB Łukasz Pawłowski, a erstwhile associate of the Civic Platform, and besides presented a list of the biggest OGB failures, with a peculiar discrimination of the disastrous forecast of the 2019 European Parliament election results. At the time, the OGB almost reversed the final election consequence by assigning the European Coalition the support obtained by the Law and Justice.

All comments by Marcin Palade could be considered a brutal fight against competition and pursuing their own professional or political goals, but apart from memories and individual attacks, unquestionable facts fell. Prior to all, the OGB poll is not a survey, that is, a survey based solely on polled electoral responses, but a forecast made by CATI (from Computer-Assisted telephone Interviewing). In human terms, this is simply a computer simulation based on the telephone answers of the respondents. This means that the studio takes into account any of the information collected from possible voters, but processes it according to its own key and here is an infinite field for creating results.

Since it is known that the latest OGB poll is not a survey, it is worth considering what extraordinary factors have affected the fact that in 1 week the laboratory raised the KO score to 38 percent and simultaneously erased all "appetizers". Such factors cannot be seen in the political sphere of facts and logic, but you can see precisely the other arguments, which completely undermine the OGB simulation. In fresh times Donald Tusk has collected incredible beatings, besides from his own supporters and favorable media. It was specified a large beating that Tusk himself complained to journalists at a conference in Brussels:

I have a individual satisfaction, due to the fact that the whips I received in the last 2 weeks on the occasion of the 2 years of my government's work... I felt it on my back rather solidly.

However, this message lacked details that convey a actual scale of criticism. Donald Tusk was not only battered by the PiS and another opposition parties, the dry thread did not leave the top media, experts, left-wing supporters and even members of the KO in anonymous conversations with journalists. At the same time, another fatal survey showed the lowest support for Donald Tusk's government and his own. Where to look for 4 percent KO growth in all this? According to the forecast of Łukasz Pawłowski, supporters of the left supported the critic without pity Donald Tusk. Even greater miracles happen in the second forecast, which assumes the start of 1 list of the full ruling coalition, which in itself is simply a complete abstraction, but only absurd support of 47% for specified a list tells everything about this marketing and political humbug.

Reliability is like a forest, it grows slow and burns very quickly, present the fire in its own forest was started by Łukasz Pawłowski. The OGB forecast does not meet any standards of expertise and reliability, it is adequate to say that support for the ruling coalition list has been summed up with a simple mathematical account, which is simply a disqualifying mistake, due to the fact that specified things have never happened in Polish and planet politics. The publication of specified a ridiculous forecast can be explained in 3 ways. The first was given by Marcin Palade, who claims that Pawłowski was no longer satisfied with the rates he received for his cooperation with Karol Nawrocki and tv Republika.

The second is simply to draw attention to themselves, as a rule, let them say what they want, so that the names of OGB do not confuse. The 3rd is taking a occupation or looking for a fresh employer. The 4th version is simply a solidly performed study, but this definitely should be excluded. We will shortly find out what business model Łukasz Pawłowski adopted if, after a wave of fair criticism, he corrects the results in the next study, The taste will remainBut it'll start rebuilding credibility again. If the next “prognoses” are equally abstract and at the same time we see the head of the OGB in the function of TVN24 expert, then no 1 should have any uncertainty who the fresh chief is.

We don't believe in anyone, we don't believe in anything! We look at facts and draw conclusions!