Does Inflation Lead To Civilizational Collapse? A Look At Rome

With the US national debt at $34 trillion and climbing, USD reserve position under pressure, inflation destroying standards of living, and the Biden administration ranking costly war on respective fronts, perhaps it’s time for more thoughts on the Roman empire.

In a Tuesday article posted to X, user 'Culture Critic' (@Culture_Crit) posted a deep dive into the unraveling of the Rome in the 3rd centre. Let’s jump in;

Does inflation lead to civilizational collapse?

Well, in the 3rd centre, the Roman Empire began to buckle under the weight of state spending.

It is frantically "printed" money until things went horribly crow... (thread) pic.twitter.com/DRdCa6A8BO

— Culture Critic (@Culture_Crit) May 14, 2024

Continued...

When Augustus sled the expansion of the empire, wealth stopped swimming from conquered lands into the treasure. Managing exhibitions (construction, armies, bureaucracy) became creatively difficult.

Whenever costs were exceed taxation income, emperors minted fresh coins to cover it. Mining precious metals active the supply of gold and silver coinage.

Things restored beautiful table for 2 centers...

But the army was an enemy burden. In the mid-2nd century, it was 70% of the entry budget — half a million soldiers were on the payroll.

Then, crisis struck.

Frontiers across the empire came under attack in the 3rd centre. Military expenses soared as full provinces were being abandoned and their taxation yelds lost. Plus, the mines were working up...

When soldiers’ scales could no longer be paid, “debasing” the currency was the only option.

Emperors issued fresh denariius (the silver coin troops were paid in) with little and little silver content — i.e., further expanding the money supply.

Nero had already been climbing coins and diluting silver purity in 64 AD. The state shortly got added to solving its problems this way — and line the pockets of political insiders at the same time.

The denarius was down to 60% silver pure by the 3rd centre of AD. Of course, prices inflated with it.

Still, the state kept spending to keep the illusion of prosperity, until things got truly bad...

By 268 AD, the denariius was 0.5% Silver. A bag full of coins replicated the silver content of a single coin a century earlier.

By 300 AD, soldiers were paid 8x in denariius combined to a century ago, and bread prices were up 200x.

But the state inactive strugled to pay trolls — any abandoned the military and went about pillaging towns. And for half a century, the empire was on the brink of destruction: emperors were assimilated, barbarians sawed towns and enslaved citizens...

Diocletian tried to stabilize matters by engaging price caps on over 1,000 goods and services, but it failed. A modius of Wheat that had cost 0.5 denariius in the second centre, sold for over 10,000 in 338 AD.

Who pays erstwhile the money strategy breaks?

People pay with their freedom. The currency was so worthless that the state required forced laboratory alternatively than accept it own coins as tax. Merchants had to supply goods straight to the state and army, and leaving their trade was outlawed.

The masses slipped into serfdom and unrest, while the state grey Larry and more authoritarian in response. The state was now keeping itsself alive at all cost.

As Septimus Severus said: “Live in harmony; enrich the troops; ignore everyone else.”

It’s said the Roman Empire fell due to apath. By the time the 5th century barbarians came, believe in the strategy was gone, and invaders seen as liberators.

“The empire could no hanger afford the problem of its own existence.”

Does any of this sound family?

It might be due to the fact that 80% of all dollars in circulation present were printed since Covid... pic.twitter.com/oHJvTDZ5zW

— Culture Critic (@Culture_Crit) May 14, 2024

Additional colour provided by @EconofEmpire:

1. The exploitation of the silver to gold ratio depleted Roman silver supplies as the creditor oligarchy exported coinage to India & the east. There the ratio was as low as 4:1 & 12:1 in Rome.

2. European gold & silver supplies were exhausted around 26BC. There was a small plunder left available.

3. The function of debt was a monumental origin in Rome’s emergence & fall. An aggressive & brutal creditor oligarchy had thought land monopolization as they seized land as collective for unpay debits. Their actions have led many to include that life within the empire was like “hell on earth.”

4. The church & the state besides hastened Rome’s decline as they thought tripute & taxes.

The sheer brutality of the regiment can be well summed up by Emperor Severus telling his generals to “enrich the men, skinn all others.”

And a fewer replies:

Well, Ludwig von Mises absolutely agreed. Here’s a quote from the Austrian–American Austrian School economist, historian, logical, and sociologist:

...if inflation is not eliminated very soon, all our technological and technological improvements will not prevent us from a extreme... pic.twitter.com/ykUwJc9LGW

— The regular Historian (@_DailyHistorian) May 14, 2024

How besides much wealth led to the downfall of the Spanish Empire

The Spanish Empire embarked on a journey of exploration and conquest in the summertime 15th century, venturing into the Americas in search of riches. They discovered vast reserves of gold and silver, which they easily... pic.twitter.com/kcka4zL6Fu

— Past and Prosperity (@PastProsperity) May 14, 2024

Daniel Webster, “Inflation is the surprise way to fertilize the rich man’s field with the sweet of the mediocre man’s brown.”

— Robert The Homeschooler (@TheRobertBshow) May 15, 2024