Will Nawrocks with Mentzen bargain Kaczyński's party?

The presumption seemed simple. We had to put forward a right-wing doctor in the presidential election, mentally close to Confederations. The 1 in the first circular will fight Mentzen for Confederate voters, and in the second circular will choice up their voices in contrare to the "Red" beige of Rafał. Technically, the plan worked perfectly. Trzaskowski lost the election undefeated and the PiS candidate became president.

Except the stairs just started. Just the fact that Kaczyński had to search individual close to the Confederate, not his own party, pointed to the political weakness of Law and Justice. In addition, the full run seemed to have a pact of non-aggression, ending with the Prussian Nawrocki tribute to the fresh ruler Mentzen. It turned out that in the first circular of PiS he lost almost 2 million votes compared to the October 2023 parliamentary election. Of course, he lost it to the Confederate and Braun candidates – besides in the countryside.

End of love between the Law and the Confederation

Kaczyński and his organization just after the election did not make besides violent moves. They were inactive in the free market, Corvinist Newms about the public debt that Nawrocki repeated at the Cabinet Council. The authoritative explanation was inactive "no fresh taxes". In a word, the PiS acted as if the Menzen way of looking at the state became their own. But last week, things have changed dramatically. There's been a violent attack on the Confederacy. Why?

The direct reason was expected to be interior polling results that with the expected large number of votes for subliminal parties (PSL, Poland 2050, Krona Brauna, possibly Together) little than 40% would suffice for the independent majority of the parliament. And that the Law and Justice has the possible to accomplish specified a result, but must do so at the expense of the Confederacy.

However, I dare say there are more reasons for the anti-Confederal volt.

First of all, the full Pisan communicative of Kaczyński for over a decade has been set according to the axis of the dispute between Solidarne and Liberal Poland. It gives rhetorical credibility to both attacks on elite Warsaw and the defence of actual provincial Poland. Abandoning this communicative in the name of corvinist selfishness makes the PiS a organization that is another Republican clone, and thus an ideologically expendable organization on the Polish political scene. Let us remember that this 500+ was the gamechanger who gave the PiS hundreds of thousands of voters who had not voted before (hence specified an increase in attendance in the last decade).

Additionally, Volta Tusk is not helping the full case. This one, alternatively of leading the "left love policy" on the border, began to talk Mentzen's language. Hardness, To not say the brutality of tusk power, may rise opposition in the voters of the coalition, but to put it equally brutally, they have nowhere to run anyway, and if it comes to that, then the frightened fascists will go to elections. Kaczyński so loses possible increases in support and in this field, due to the fact that present all major players talk precisely the same military-right language, so it is impossible to gain from it.

Paradoxically Kaczyński has even worse, as the Confederacy is simply a second choice organization for PiS voters, so voters of the president have a place to run. Especially since the Confederacy began to build its own variant of solidarity in the province, not economically. Combating the pandemic, assisting Ukraine, bringing refugees, Polish and green order, fighting hunters – all these actions of the Law and Justice were contrary to the provincial, nationalist solidarity of Poles, which the Law and Justice first inflated propaganda, and which now uses even more extremist Confederation.

For voters Mentzen PiS is an establishment

Will Kaczyński's attack succeed? Will it be successful to call Mentzen the second Balcerovich or the rhetorical plowing of the head of the Confederate by Morawiecki, explaining that space innovation cannot be done with the lowest labour costs? Again, theoretically, yes. Social transfers only for working Poles, maintenance of free education or yet aspirations of Poles forcing gigantic infrastructure expansion (i.e. the larger CPK, the better) can be fields in which the PiS will win with the private water and water supply organization Sławomir Mentzen.

In practice, however, Kaczyński's attack on the Confederacy can only confirm Poles that the Confederacy is an anti-establishment party, due to the fact that – whether it likes Kaczyński or not – after a decade of governing the Law and Justice is present a right-wing establishment for many voters. If we add to this a Trump wave of conflict against levitation, including, of course, woke-communism and economical Bolshevikism, against “hard-working” entrepreneurs, it may turn out that the Confederacy with its efficient propaganda device on the net will only gain credibility.

Then besides the Law and Justice, and alone Nawrocks They think there's a fresh king in town, and he's the 1 to deal with politically. If Kaczyński couldn't beat a fistful of Ziobrists over the years, why should he defeat the Confederates now? – they will think voters and structures, and against the will of the president, they will direct the cruiser from the bottom up PiS on corvinist waters. And then Kaczyński organization will lose – mentally, and then possibly besides actually. Just as Geremek, Balcerovich, Krzaklewski and Miller lost it.