Will Mateusz Morawiecki go his way?

The shortest way to complete embarrassment of all analyst of the Polish political scene is through prophecy. Attempts to guess what happens next week usually end in failure, let alone an yearly and long-term perspective. Of course, this is not about apparent things, but there are surprises here, which we saw no more than yesterday. It was widely said that Simon Holovnia would leave Poland 2050 and make her own club in the Sejm, while Paulina Hennig-Kloska did this maneuver. This morning. There's quite a few speculation. concerning another policy and another party.

Political commentators speculate about the future of Mateusz Morawiecki and surely any of them will compromise due to the fact that opinions are highly different. Jacek Prusinowski, who managed to preserve the face and seriousness, although he was 1 of the President's debates in TVP, claims with full conviction that Mateusz Morawiecki wants to leave the Law and establish his own party. This version is definitely opposed by another and besides by a decent writer Marcin Fijolek. In his opinion, it is only a typical lure thrown by a faction favoring Morawiecki, and the goal of Morawiecki is to take over, not to leave the PiS. Who has a better chance of being serious in this duel? Chances are equal due to the fact that both versions of events have a rational historical and current basis. This would not be the first divided in the PiS, the organization had previously left 3 spin doctors: Adam Bielan, Michał Kamiński, Marek Migalski and Joanna Kluzik-Rostowska, head of the presidential run Jarosław Kaczyński.

The escapees formed PJN, but the full adventure did not last a year, then a series of embarrassments occurred. Greater chances were given to “Solidar Poland” founded in 2011 by Zbigniew Ziobra, whom he supported, among others, Jacek Kurski and indeed this task survived until 2024, but as a coalitionist of the PiS, not a stand-alone party. There is so a historical probability that Mateusz Morawiecki will be another PiS policy with ambitions of creating his own party. It besides seems that the current events confirm this hypothesis, not so long ago Mateusz Morawiecki stood up to the president of Kaczyński and did not come to Nowogrodzka, despite public call for appearances. Then Morawiecki organized his own Christmas Eve and nearly 100 visitors from PiS appeared on it. Next Saturday Mateusz Morawiecki intends to compete again with Jarosław Kaczyński, this time for conventions. The PiS Convention is scheduled to take place in Stalowa Wola, but there will be no erstwhile Prime Minister holding an election gathering in Słupsk.

This is the argument for Jack Prusinowski's prophecy, and they are truly strong, but this does not mean that Marcin Fiolek must be a loser, due to the fact that Mateusz Morawiecki is an experienced politician and knows precisely how the political initiatives built on desertion from the Law and Justice and the Polish Republic ended. In short, No one's made it. And if you even accept that there must be a first time, then first it doesn't have to, second it is very advanced risk. A much better script for Mateusz Morawiecki is to make a strong position in the Law and Justice, which will warrant him immunity and the ability to influence the party. This is most likely precisely what Morawiecki is doing at the moment, but if there was a split, it would definitely take place under the conditions of Mateusz Morawiecki and not Jarosław Kaczyński. The most crucial condition to meet is that Morawiecki cannot leave himself, due to the fact that he would be considered a traitor, but must be expelled from the Law and Justice. Whether this is not the prophecy of journalists, only time and life will show.

We don't believe in anyone, we don't believe in anything! We look at facts and draw conclusions!