After months of hamletizing, interior debates and fluctuations, controlled and uncontrolled leaks, factions and analyses of PiS polls, he yet decided that his candidate in the 2025 presidential election would be president of the Karol Nawrocki National Memorial Institute. In fact, he will not be a PiS candidate, but a "civil candidate" supported by the party.
Already this bizarre expression shows how the large PiS has a problem with the presidential election – and the Nawrocki candidacy may not solve it.
Duda to Power
In the Law and Justice on the presidential candidate in 2025, 2 concepts have fought for months: the candidate representing the 2015–2023 and the ‘Dudy bis’. So individual unknown, who can't be traced back to the mistakes and abuses committed during the 8 years of the Law and Justice Party, who can be built from scratch in the campaign.
Of course, Nawrocki is an option of "Duda bis", or even Duda squared. Although in 2015, many people were confused with the leader of Solidarity, Piotr Duda, in 2015 Andrzej Duda has been present in politics for a decade. In the Ministry of Justice, he was the Undersecretary of State for the first Ziobry, then Minister at Lech Kaczyński, associate and Euro MP. He appeared in the building Smolensk movie story Fog and was well known to the Smolensk electorate.
According to Radio Zet, the president of the IPN is recognized by only 39 percent of Poles – little than 1 in ten. Even in the PiS electorate he does not associate 40% of voters. Nawrocki has no political experience. He never did anything another than historical politics. His views on the key issues around which the presidential debate will be held in the next year are not known: from the economical situation to safety issues.
In fresh weeks, erstwhile Nawrocki's construction began as a serious candidate, the president of the IPN gave respective interviews, in which he began to very consciously build a communicative around his person.
Several of its basic pillars can already be distinguished: origin from the folk class, patriotism, religiousness, moderate, without excessive aggression way of communication – Nawrocki, like Krzysztof Bosak, can convey extremist content in a seemingly average form.
All these elements returned on Sunday during the presentation of the candidate in Krakow. respective times his working background was emphasized. The subject will most likely be heated by the full campaign, in conjunction with the “elitarian” Trzaskowski, Rafał Woś will compose out of 50 texts about the fact that “working” Nawrocki is another proof that it is the Law and Justice that represents "democratic socialism" today.
The "citizen candidate" besides emphasized in Krakow that "Poland is simply a Christian country" and it is not possible to "take down crosses" – again, threatening that "Trzaskowski will ban crosses" will be 1 of the main motives of the campaign. All speakers in Krakow besides praised Dr. Nawrocki's merits for his concern for national memory.
Is this the kind of communicative that will convince voters? In 2015, Poles were able to bet on unknown, inexperienced politicians like Duda or Paweł Kukiz. In 2025 the situation will be much little unchangeable and the willingness of the electorate to experimentation with the candidate without any experience and global contacts may be smaller.
So far as Nawrocki's deficiency of designation is simply a Duda is simply a square, so far Duda to the minus 3 power. Listening to the Krakow speech of the president of the IPN, 1 could appreciate the charisma, rhetorical talents and flow of president Andrzej Duda. Public speaking is simply a skill that can be learned, so it is not determined that Nawrock will neglect to launch a appropriate campaign. But there must be quite a few work ahead of him.
Plays for demobilization and nationalists
What is the political sense of Nawrock's candidacy? Like any variant of the Dudy-bis it is expected to be a game for the demobilization of coalition voters on October 15 and disappointed by the governments of the PiS center. Candidates associated with erstwhile governments, especially those most ideologically expressive, could mobilize the voters of Trzaskovsky in the second round. individual specified as Nawrocki – unknown, not active in peculiar controversy, not making the national-Catholic Hunwabin impression – would put the more "lazy" voters to sleep, convince them that the presidential elections do not have specified a advanced stake and alternatively of the elections you can easy go to the barbecue.
This demobilising sense of Nawrocki's start was in fact confirmed by Jarosław Kaczyński speaking in Krakow before the "civil candidate". The president stated that the PiS came out of research, that Poles have had adequate of the "Polish-Polish war" and that it must be completed. And individual who can do that is “citizen candidate” Karol Nawrocki.
The problem is that Nawrocki – even by how he managed the “ene taken over” by the Law and Justice World War II Museum in Gdańsk – is alternatively an example of the opposite: introducing the logic of the “Polish-Polish” war to state institutions and utilizing them as tools in this war. On Sunday, led by Nawrocki IPN, he one more time gave a show of akin logic, posting on his authoritative photograph profile from the inauguration of his boss's campaign.
Nawrocki is besides to gain a right-wing electorate, which present does not vote for the Law and Justice: from the people to the national part of the Confederacy. As the president of the IPN Nawrocki was to have good relations with the politicians of both parties, the question of how convincing he would prove to their voters.
As the national electorate looks like, what he said in fresh interviews about the aid of Ukraine: Poland has already helped adequate and has not taken care of its interests, it must change, the condition for further aid should be that the Ukrainians take care of the Volyn case. PiS hopes that in the most optimistic script Nawrocki will gather national Confederate voters already in the first round, thus weakening not only Mentzen, but the full formation.
The question of whether Nawrocki would not be even for the Confederate national voters – despite its "citizenship" – is besides written, besides glued to the establishment of this party.
“I can just girdle it”
What is the substance with the unusual "citizen candidate" supported by the Law and Justice? Did the organization consider that its brand after 8 years of government became so toxic that for each candidate it would be like a stone attached to its neck? Or the Law and Justice have concluded that since, as the results of Paul Kukiz in 2015 or Simon Holown in 2020 showed, Poles like independent, civic presidential candidates, so you gotta give them one?
The question is, who would fall for specified a maneuver? For all minimally oriented voter, Dr. Nawrocki will be as credible as the "citizen candidate", as Stanisław Piotrowicz or Krystyna Pawłowicz are credible as independent judges of the Constitutional Court, in their rulings in the smallest, but indeed the smallest, disinterested party, which almost straight from their parliamentary benches sent them to 1 of the 3 most crucial courts in the country.
Citizen candidate does not appear in casting at the seat of 1 of the largest political parties in the country, it has not been pointed out by politicians dominant in Polish public life for almost 20 years, it is not behind the large organization machine. And even sympathetic to Dr. Nawrock's views, voters do not let themselves to believe that he is not a PiS candidate.
Presenting the “citizen candidate” on Sunday in Krakow, Kaczyński told how he defeated 3 organization activists: Mariusz Błaszczak, Tobias Bocheński and Przemysław Czarnek in the interior PiS competition.
Looking at all this, it was hard to defy associations with the celebrated scene au BearIn which the designer of costumes for the movie The last sausage of number Barry-KentTo make the heir of the Polish Lorenzo Pruski from his Prussian uniform and picielhauba, he proposes to girdle him with a white red sash. "Citizenship" Nawrocki looks all over the background of this candidate as a white-red sash on a Prussian uniform.
A candidate for exchange?
Although possibly it would be more appropriate to associate with another scene. In a curiosally bad sequel Burnt by the sun Nikita Michałkova veteran of the October Revolution and victim of the large purge, Kotov, after the 3rd Reich attack on the russian Union is released from the camp and invited to an audience to Stalin himself. He tells him: “You ask what we have locked you up for, but that is the incorrect question. due to the fact that you should be asking, not for what, why. And we shut you down to release you right now.”
And I can imagine Jarosław Kaczyński – the president said he loves anecdotes about Stalin – who in January explains to the "citizen candidate": "Sir, this is why we supported you as a citizen candidate, to retreat and support the organization now".
Because until the candidates are officially registered, no decision is final. And it can truly be imagined that the PiS is so insecure, on whom it is yet expected to be, that it is now releasing a test balloon with a "citizen candidate" so that, in case of any event, by January – if it is seen that it is not dramatically able – change it to a party, for example Przemysław Czarnka.
The second is expected to run together with Nawrocki, to function as his number 2 – an perfect position to occupy number 1 if necessary.
Do not underestimate your opponent
Everything that happens around the PiS candidate in the presidential election shows how deep the organization crisis is. PiS leaders can tell that a year ago they actually won elections, that the period 2015-2023 is the best time for Poland since Zygmunt Augustus, and at the same time they most likely know how people justice politicians who personalize those times.
However, the worst thing a ruling camp could do is disregard an opponent from the Law and Justice – whoever it is it will yet not be. Presidential elections are among the most unpredictable, the electorates around the planet are highly volatile in their moods. In the race, there may be another 3rd candidate unknown to us. Rafał Trzaskowski is not yet in his pocket.
