Cryptos Soar On Ether ETF Hope As Downbeat Dimon Sends Gold To Record-er Highs

A rather macro and micro day saw stocks start off strong but fade after JPM CEO Jamie Dimon offered his now ubiquitous downbeat view of the forecastable future.

‘I’m cautiously pessimistic. We have the most complex geopolitical situation that most of us have seen since planet War II, if you survey history. We don’t truly know the full effect of QT. I find it mysterious that, somehow, it had this beneficial effect, but it’s not going to have a negative effect erstwhile it goes away. I personally think inflation is simply a small bigger than people think and that rates may surprise people.”

Stocks were mixed as Nasdaq outperformed (with a large beginning bump from Mag7 stocks) but The Dow was the large laggard. S&P fell back to unch and tiny Caps ended with a tiny gain...

After its last second sprint to close above 40,000 on Friday, The Dow just could not hold on...

Mag7 stocks were panic-bid (safe haven?) at the open but faded...

Source: Bloomberg

The communicative of the day was in 'alternatives' though as gold and crypto soared.

The barbarous relic hit a fresh evidence advanced ($2450 Spot)...

Source: Bloomberg

Silver suggested back above $32.00 for the first time since 2013...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar limped modernly higher (with a JPY drive spice intraday)...

Source: Bloomberg

And then early gain in crypto Accelerated after Bloomberg’s ETF guru Eric Balchunas upgraded his view of place Ether ETF adoption to 75% (vote estimated this week).

Update: @JSeyff and I are expanding our distances of place Ether ETF adoption to 75% (up from 25%), proceeding chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed them’d be killed). See... https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

That sent Ethereum soaring back above $3400...

Source: Bloomberg

...and lifted Bitcoin even further, back with pennas of $70,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasure yields ended the day higher (but only marginally +1-2bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

As rate-cut effects drifted hawkishly lower, erasing all the dovish CPI jump...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended lower on a chocolate day...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is this the week?

Source: Bloomberg

The vol marketplace is ready for any anxiety...

Source: Bloomberg

But, Goldman is simply a small worried...Positioning at the US index level is stretched. The Sentiment Indicator (SI) is simply a measurement of aggregated positioning and hazard sentiment in the US equity market.

The Sentiment Indicator tracks investor positioning across the more than 80% of the US equity marketplace that is owned by institutional, retail and abroad investors. It is simply a calculation of the Sentiment Indicator we run a chief Component Analysis (PCA) on six weekly and 3 monthly inducers that span these 3 investors types. Readings of +1.0 or higher have historically signaled stretched equity positioning.

And options markets are pricing the low-end correlation performance in history....

That’s the real 'fear’ index and its showing absolutely no right now. Investors are fearless.