Crude Slides After Trump Says China „Can Continue To Purchase Oil From Iran”

Trump continued his crusade against high oil prices, and US energy producers (recall yesterday he posted „EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”), when the President posted on Truth Social that „China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran”…

… which of course they have been doing, purchasing pretty much all the oil Iran is exporting (with the „Asia/Unknown” in the chart below primarily signaling Singapore which is also effectively China).

It was not immediately clear whether Trump’s post meant that the US was removing sanctions on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil. If so, that would explain the quid-pro-quo that took place behind the scenes, with Trump convincing Tehran to lay its arms down in exchange for Iran no longer having to hide its exports to China, which were technically sanctioned but nobody enforced said sanctions as it would mean a spike in oil prices.

And ultimately while the Trump post meant just a continuation of the status quo – because whether with or without sancitons China would always import Iranian oil – his intention was clear: hammer oil even more, and sure enough, WTI crude which was already reeling after a near record swing over the past 24 hours, slumped to session lows around $65 before recovering.

At this point, it is clear that it won’t be Iran, or any foreign producer, that ends up taking the hit, but rather US shale that is forced to pump much less at ever lower prices, until eventually the first axiom in commodity trading comes true, namely that the solution to low oil prices, are low oil prices… and the resulting collapse in supply as unprofitable companies either shut down or are liquidated. Unfortunately, neither helps makes American energy producers great again.