Looking back on Marine Le Pen's political career, it could be said to be proceeding in a alternatively slow but unstopped way. From gaining 18% of the vote in the 2012 presidential election, through successes in European votes and twice reaching the second circular in subsequent presidential campaigns, to breaking the glass ceiling in parliamentary elections and tearing the "sanitary cordon" around its formation.
Republican Front blocked the National Unity election victory (RN), but 141 nationalist deputies are strong adequate to Michel Barnier's fresh government is dependent on Le Pen's support. The centre-right saw the extremist right as a better partner than the left and thus ended the practice of isolation. The cherry on the cake for Le Pen would naturally be to win the presidency in 2027, but not only political rivals but besides the justice strategy can stand in the way.
Creative Accounting of Nationalist Leaders
For a decade now, there has been proceedings involving the activities of Marine Le Pen from the time of the leader (then) of the National Front as a MEP. The French prosecution was curious in the question of the fictitious hiring of parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016, which served to rise additional funds for the far-right party. According to investigators, in 12 years as a result, “systematic and organised fraud of public money“ Over 20 FN activists have embezzled nearly EUR 7 million.
If the court finds Marine Le Pen to be an accessory to this crime and insists on the prosecution's motion to conviction EUR 300 000 and 5 years imprisonment (including 3 suspended), it will be the end of the French nationalists' dream of Presidentship, at least in the close future. Especially since the imprisonment would go hand in hand with the deprivation of the anticipation of public office, and there is besides a question of the provisional application of the second penalty.
This would mean that even if the appeal was made, Le Pen could inactive not stand in elections until it was examined and acquitted. The French judges would be much more decisive than the American judges who, in Trump's case, were very conservative, delaying the conviction and yet allowing the Republican to lead an effective presidential campaign, which ongoing proceedings It didn't hurt.
Criminal or political trial?
Le Pen, like the American president-elect, maintains that she is completely innocent, and the ongoing trial is purely political. Defending the establishment, judges and prosecutors are to do what Macron and another politicians failed to do – to prevent the leader of the extremist right from gaining power. Although the RN has in the meantime reluctantly returned a million euros to the European Parliament, organization activists deny that this is to be a confession.
It is peculiarly outraged to take distant the anticipation of moving in presidential elections even before the appeal is examined, which, according to Le Pen's supporters and herself, would be unprecedented repression. The politician speaks of a "political death penalty" and compares the conduct of the French justice strategy to the practices of authoritarian regimes.
However, if a possible judgement in the Marine Le Pen case is brought together with another court rulings concerning public funds fraud, it will appear that the prosecution’s proposition The punishment is not peculiarly severe. In fresh years, all convicted criminal has besides received a ban on public office, so a possible resignation from this measurement would be an even peculiar kindness of the judges to the leader of the National Unity.
Is Brutus lurking in the RN?
Quite unexpected in the context of the ongoing Le Pen trial was Jordan Bardella's declaration, which has been formally leading the RN for respective years and is designated a Marine successor. Young Euro MP stated due to the fact that no 1 who has been convicted by the court will compete with the party's letter. any see the unfortunate timing in this, others find the deliberate play of the rising star of the French far right.
Bardella's message can be interpreted as a belief in Le Pen's successful settlement of the trial, but he might as well sharpen his teeth to replace his mentor in the upcoming presidential campaign, and a possible conviction would make it importantly easier for him. The president of the RN should, however, remember that erstwhile in 1998 the number 2 of the then nationalists Bruno Mégret attempted to usage Le Pen senior's judicial problems to take control of the party, it ended in defeat and going into political oblivion. Among another things, Bardella will alternatively play carefully while waiting for his turn.
For this moment, Marine remains a favourite to represent RN in the upcoming elections, and at the same time 1 of the main, unless the main candidate to replace Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée Palace. As the United States has shown, lawsuits are not a problem for extremist right-wing politicians. At least until the conviction ends, and the French judges may be little gracious – in the case of Le Pen, we can anticipate further decisions most likely at the beginning of next year.
