Below I present an analysis of the situation at the war front in Ukraine – the state at 28.11.2025 which I linked to the activity of the US administration in the area of peace negotiations aimed at ending war activities.
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The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump is presently actively trying to end the war on Ukraine by diplomatic means. The hybrid war replaces advanced intensity, fought by the army of Ukraine, with the powerful multidimensional support of the collective liberal West under the leadership of the US, with the Russian Federation, which is already openly discussed in the circles of analysts and politicians.
One of the key reasons for the current Washington administration to negociate peace is the process of breaking down the Ukrainian army's defence in parallel on many sections of the front. This is due to the systemic crisis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in terms of the shrinking resources of surviving force and deficiency of equipment, without any real strategical or even operational successes.
The Russian troops, without operational pause, have been conducting a continuous series of offensive operations since early spring 2025 and the operational initiative unquestionably throughout the front line belongs to the Russians. The Ukrainian Army is in deep defense.
Russian soldiers did not slow down dense autumn climatic conditions, did not halt them this time "a autumn razputica". With a advanced degree of probability, they will decision smoothly to the action which will be caught in the winter 2025/2026. The configuration of the front line and the actions of the various Russian army groups in Ukraine, which are equivalent to the russian army fronts, indicate that in winter there will be fights for 10 Ukrainian cities.
So let us look at more than a 1000 thousand miles [500 km] of front lines in this respect, analyzing the hypothetical tasks of individual Russian army groups to conquer cities.
"Dniepr" group commanded by Michał Tieplinski's gene
This is 1 of the weakest Russian army groups whose tasks are secondary. Her troops are overseeing the front line along Dniepr, but on the Zaporozh section, the reinforced 58th Guarded National Military Army in the winter run will fight for 2 cities and participate in winning the third.
Analyzing the front from the Dniepr river line, the precedence is to complete the fighting and capture the tiny town of Stepnohirsk/Stiepnogorsk defended by the Ukrainian 210th "Berlingo" Storm Regiment and separate forces of 128 dense Mechanized Brigade, performing local counterattacks. The town is stormed by 2 regiments of the Russian 7th Guards of the Landing and Storming Division (Górska) supported by the 49th Landing and Storming Brigade and the 328th Deserting Regiment of the 104th Air and Deserting Division. The battalions of the Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, so far defending the towns, cover the left flank by casting a line of fortifications moving east, as 1 of the regiments of the Russian 19th firearm Division was reinforced, thrown here from the Kursk elite area of the 11th defender Landing-Sturm Brigade, which may indicate the concentration of Russian troops before taking action to the east of Siepnohirsk.
Stiepnohirsk is crucial for breaking the main Ukrainian front line in Zaporozh and the base for Russian drone operations, who will be able to attack targets in the city of Zaporozhye and paralyze Ukrainian logistics going through bridges on Dnieper.
The main forces of the 58th National Army, headed by the 42nd Guards Division, part of the 19th firearm Division and the 100th Reconnaissance Brigade, after capturing the small Tokmakka went to the suburbs of the city of Oriechowo, to conquer which they could join in winter. This may be indicated by a concentration of 1429, 1152, 1251, 1455 Reserve firearm Regiments, 5 BARS battalions, 3 artillery regiments and 291 artillery brigades. On the Ukrainian side of the city are defended by battalions from 65, 118, 159 Mechanized Brigades and 115 and 123 Territorial Defence Brigades, i.e. about 10-12 battalions. The Russians have as many as 29-30 battalions, or 3–1 advantage.
‘East’ group of General Andrei Ivanev
Apparently, the group of the Ivanaev army, in the fall of 2025, achieved the top field successes. A group of 4 all-military armies captured respective towns and broke the fortified line of defence of Ukrainian troops on the Janczur River. It forced Ukrainians to turn west beyond the Hanczur River and north beyond the Vovcza River.
The “East” group, which is simply a challenge for staff and logistics, operates in 2 diverging directions.
The forces of the 35th National Army and the main forces of the 5th National Army of the Russians went to the suburbs of the city of Hulaipole. 127th Division of Mechanized Rifles closes Hulaipol's wing from the north and the east, from the south approaches 38th Rifles Brigade. The Bangladeshi arms of the Ukrainian 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade and approach the rushed battalions from the 23rd National defender Brigade.
On the right flank, attacking the north and northeast Russian brigade 36 and 29 of the National Military Army exit the suburbs of the town of Pokrowski. Ukrainians are leaving behind the river Vovcza. Pokrowski (not to be confused with Pokrowski) is simply a 15 thousandth city and an crucial logistics hub in Zaporoz.
General Waler Solodczuk’s ‘Centre’
The strongest Russian army group after many months of dense fighting, de facto won 60,000 Pokrowsk,. During the winter period, it is likely to purify and defend them from infiltration by Ukrainian forces, so as not to repeat the situation with the acquired Torecki. This task is carried out by units of the 2nd Guarded Military Army. The troops of the neighboring 51 Guards of the National Military Army will proceed to storm and destruct the garrison around the 50,000th-century city of Myrnohrad in which the remaining 3 battalions of the 38th Marine Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defend themselves.
The forces of the 9 and 132 Armed firearm Brigades will effort to dispel the Ukrainians from the midfield town of Rodynskie, defended by the separate forces of the 92nd Assault Brigade and the 79th Assault Desert Brigade. It's a 10,000-year-old town and the roads that go through it, it's the last chance to break through to the damaged Myrnohrad.
Depending on the “Centrum” group, the 8th Guarded National Military Army is heading north, but in part of its army (150 Guarded Guarded firearm Division), are the confederate arm of the “sticks” of Russian forces attempting to close Ukrainian troops defending the city of Constantinówka in the lap.
Southern Group
The fresh commander of the confederate Group, a young 46-year-old general Sergei Medvedev, succeeding General Sanchik, carries out the task of acquiring 2 cities. 75 1000 Constantinówka, which is attacked by the separate forces of the 8th Guarded Military Army adjacent to the “Centre” Group and 15 thousandth town-fortress Siewiersk.
To carry out the first task, General Medvedev assigned: 4 and 72 Squadrons of Mechanized Rifles and moved here from above Dniepr 70 Division of Mechanized Rifles, as well as 1194, 1307, 1442 1008 Reserve Rifles Regiments and 77, 54, 126 firearm Rifles Regiments. On the front line close Konstantinówka there are besides Russians Cossack Volunteer Brigades, operators from the 10th and 346th Specnaz Brigades and a number of smaller units. The Konstantinka assault is supported by 238 Artillery Brigade, 18 dense Artillery Brigade, and 27 and 381 Artillery Regiments. The command post of the operation to capture Constantinówka provides command of the 14th Army Corps.
The Ukrainian side is defended by: 24, 28, 93, 100 and 157 Mechanized Brigades, 12th Azov National defender Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade, 104th and 11th Territorial Defence Brigade. The 43rd Artillery Brigade provides support. office is the 1st National defender Corps “Azov”.
The capture of the city-fortress Siewiersk General Medvedev entrusted the 3rd Guarded Military Army attacking with forces: 7, 6 , 123, 88, 85 firearm Brigades Mechanized by the 2nd Artillery Brigade.
Ukrainians defend the city with battalions of 54 Mechanized Brigades, shielded from the south by the 10th Storm Mountain Brigade “Edelweis” and 30th Mechanized Brigade, and from the north by 81th Aeromobile Brigade. Command provides the staff of the 11th Army Corps.
General Sergei Kuzowlev's “West” group
The Russian 25th Reserve Army, after crossing the river Żieriebiec, clearing the Siereebrian forests, undertook an operation to conquer the city of Lymanian (Krasnya Liman). Ukrainians defend here with battalions from 5 brigades: (53, 63 and 60 Mechanized Brigades, 119 and 120 Territorial Defence Brigades)j.
From the south-east, the attack on Lyman is launched by the 25th Reserve Military Army forces: 67th Mechanized firearm Division, 169th Assault Brigade, 164th Mechanized firearm Brigade, and 11th Armoured Brigade.
From the east the attack is led by separate forces of the 20th Military Army (144th Division of Mechanized Rifles).
Further north, General Sergei Kuzowlew forces the 6th National Army and the separated forces of the 1st Armoured defender Army storms the Kupańska agglomeration, i.e. the city lying on the left and right bank of the Oskoł River. Despite being announced by the Russians, they control for present about 60-70% of the city's construction on the right bank of the Oskol, and the Uzłowe Cup is entirely in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers.
Brought here to command, “a specialist from hard situations” General Mikhail Drapaty, the commander who stopped the Russians at Pokrowski last year, conducts a number of counterattacks, trying to dissuade the Russians from Kupańsk. For the time being, the counter-attack of the Drapate, unlocked Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Oskol, rejecting Russian soldiers of the 68th firearm Division mechanized to the depth of Kupańsk. This allowed Ukrainian bomb squads to re-build pontoon crossings and supply minimum supplies to troops cut off on the left banks of the river. The situation here, however, is highly hard for Ukrainians, especially for those defending themselves on the right bank of the Oskol about 7-9 battalions, which, in principle, cannot be withdrawn without dense losses. Counterattacks brought north of Kupańsk to cut off regiments of the 68th Division from crossings under Dwórczna ended with a fiasco repulsed by battalions of the 27th Independent defender firearm Brigade.
‘North’ group of General Evgeny Nikiforov
Distributed forces, 1 of the weakest Russian groups, commanded by the staff of the 11th Army Corps with forces 136 and 128 Mechanized firearm Brigades displaces the Ukrainian battalions from 57 Mechanized Brigade from the remains of the city of Volchansk. The destiny of this razed town is doomed, the Russians already control about 85% of its surface.
In conclusion, the Russian army during December 2025 – April 2025 has a good chance of gaining 10-11 Ukrainian cities, whose defence is already mostly ongoing. These are: Stiepnohirsk, Hulaipole, Oriechowo, Pokrowskie, Pokrowsk, Myrnohrad, Constantinówka, Siewiersk, Krasnyj Lyman, Kupiansk, Volchansk.
Russian troops slowly, on a tiny part of the front, leave in an area fortified by Ukrainians since 2014 Donbas and begin attacking areas much little saturated with field fortifications.
Contrary to the emotional propaganda and attitude of any leaders of European states, the approach of the American administration is pragmatic and common sense.
Time works against Ukraine, as Pentagon specialists openly tell the Ukrainians themselves and NATO allies. The end of the war at the negotiating table, in the intention of the Americans, is to let the war to end with a series of operational crises, which seemingly swelled on the front line, will transform into a crisis of a strategical Ukrainian army. They just won the war after 4 years and Washington sees it.
Further extension of the fighting will inevitably lead to Russian troops not only occupy the areas where Moscow claims (the Donetsk, Lugansk, Pomeranian and Khersonian circuits) but enter the areas of the Cherkovsky, Djepropetrovsk, Sumtsk region.
Pragmatic Americans are inclined to make peace due to the fact that they have besides achieved part of the intended strategical objectives, including primarily the demolition of the Russian army (its hardware and personnel resources) and the economical weakness of Russia. Thus, they eliminated Moscow for a time from the planet gameplay as a strong player. The bloody 4-year war powerfully limited Moscow's capacity to offensive action, support allies and projection of force and mostly weakened its position on the planet stage, especially in Europe.
In the face of the forthcoming confrontation with China, the Americans want to "close" the east Front and focus their full economical and military possible on competing with China in the Asia and Pacific area, leaving the "watching" of weakened Russia in Europe to NATO allies. The price for peace is to hand over Russia part of Ukraine's territory in/g of the well-known rule of Henry Kissinger's "earth for peace".
Krzysztof Podgórski
