Wars are a plague of humanity. Regardless of all possible causes of their explosion, interior and external, which are in the human psyche and the logic of rival societies, politicians and generals, it always seems that the most complicated problems can be solved utilizing violence.
But it turns out that wars are unpredictable. seldom do their results match what was expected in connection with their start. But if it lasts long, you forget even what was the real and real origin of their explosion. All wars will end. Long ago, after bloody battles, truces were made and preliminaries were agreed, which opened the way for peace treaties. Today, conflicts end in a creeping way, by freezing, dilating over time, without clear settlements. Wars go into a state of “sleeping”, “smelling” out of camera scope to return to the hot detonation phase over time. In specified examples, the mediate east conflict has been abounding for decades. There are many indications that the permanent “war games” will be the next place of an endemic Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
Example of Ukraine...
shows that erstwhile war becomes a game in the hands of the mighty of this world, her victim has virtually nothing to say. It may happen with a variety of elaborate “win plans”, but it is not her decision to implement them. The key to resolving the conflict lies primarily in the hands of those who provoked the war and did the top interests on it. This country is primarily the United States. There are many indications that America is tired of this war (as well as Joe Biden the presidency), all the more so that the militant circles of decision-makers from across the ocean have achieved their goals. First of all, Russia's influence with its natural material base on Western European countries has been limited. Subsequent parliamentary elections in Western countries besides point to the increasing popularity of anti-war parties. Society wakes up from pro-war escalation. Many leaders find this uncomfortable fact that they have been led up by their top ally from across the ocean and have agreed to the disastrous demolition of peaceful governance in Europe.
The “scapegoat” will, of course, be the authorities in Kiev, which are threatened not only by the “peace dictatorship” of the West, but besides by the humiliation of Russia, which does not intend to quit the occupied territories. The starting point to frost the conflict will be a revision of the Western position on the causes of the war. Regardless of the result of the U.S. presidential election, the issue of assessing the existential threat to Russia arising from NATO's decision to include Ukraine in the alliance will sooner or later. Many analysts in the West get this uncomfortable fact that Russia will in no case agree to make Ukraine a western bastion on its border. So to end the war, you gotta realize what caused it. The hold on this substance by the US and another Western countries will only be to the detriment of the most deprived, or Ukraine.
Understanding the Russian position on safety issues by Western politicians is possible, but only depends on their political will. However, this is limited by Putin, who is powerfully supported in the public space by the “mantra” about the imperial plunder of Ukrainian lands, who depends on the reconstruction of large Russia. There is no relevance to the many statements made by the Kremlin, or to the analysis of even specified researchers as John Mearsheimer or Stephen Waltthe real causes of the conflict.
Interestingly, the cognitive blindness of Western notabs even ignores what American politicians themselves have confirmed, specified as a longtime authoritative of the State Department on the anti-Russian front Victoria Nuland. In her opinion, they have been allies of Ukraine since the outbreak of the crisis in 2014, namely since the overthrow of the legal government Viktor Yanukovych, they began arming and training the Ukrainian army, heading through facts made to affiliate Ukraine with NATO. Admitting this is simply a sine qua non of rebuilding even the residual trust between Russia and the West. Only then can the parties meet at the negotiating table and make a position allowing each of them to “keep their face.”
The United States presently lacks a political power center that would be capable and willing to make a fresh strategy towards the deepening multipolarisation of the global system, with the participation of China and Russia, as well as another regional powers. The “official” US state with its administration is “kulawe” (a word taken from “lame duck” or “kulawa duck”, in Polish more “kuter Leg” or “victim of fate”). This concept refers to policy at the end of the word of office, erstwhile the successor is already appointed. In Joe Biden's case, this happened sooner than decided in the election. It is widely known that the effectiveness of the American president is severely limited. There has been a state of "immovement" and even "paralysis", due to the fact that how to read the declaration of 1 of the contenders for the office of President, that even as an elect – without the power of power – will lead to the end of the war in Ukraine. It smells like an anarchization of the political system.
In the grip of Deep State
However, there has long been a second, parallel and "real" centre of power in the US, for which the "official" state is simply a cover. It is simply a strategy of informal connections and addictions between corporate plutacracy, army commanders and peculiar services officers, as well as spiritual and cultural lobbying, especially Jewish. Participants in this broad body shall not be subject to any control or social verification in elections. This is commonly referred to as ‘deep’ or ‘hidden’ state. It plays an essential function in the decision-making processes of government institutions and in the creation of US global strategies. The ‘official’ state allows a ‘deep’ state to more or little regulation and stay unnoticed.
It was at the initiative of these circles that the accession offensive of fresh countries from east Europe to NATO began in the decade of the 1990s, although no 1 at that time full realized that it was a tool for strengthening American hegemony. To this day, many Atlanticists naively believe that it was only an expression of the will of Central and east European societies. Meanwhile, the insistent imposition of cultural patterns and systemic practices clearly demonstrates the increasing influence and control of Anglo-Saxons over this part of Europe.
The first successful experimentation of taking over influence by the West was Poland. Poles were convinced that through the “revolution of Solidarity” they had liberated themselves from russian oppression, regaining pristine sovereignty. There was no fresh submission, and now there is simply a conspiracy of silence in the face of the subordination of the Nadwislan political elite of America. Everything that doesn't fit this painting is called Putin propaganda and disinformation. So far, only Hungarians have been able to name things by name.
Joe Biden turned out to be the most vivid expression of expansional tendencies. After taking the presidency in January 2021, he became an highly aggressive "jaster" to Russia. With the Secretary of State Antony Blinken the Ukrainian authorities were completely manipulated. It's not like that. Vladimir Zelenski was elected president of Ukraine in March 2019 under the slogans of peaceful normalization of relations with Russia! What happened to him that in early 2021 he radically changed his head and not only chose to associate Ukraine with NATO, but began demonstrating open hostility towards Russia? Certainly, erstwhile dealing with Zelenski's leadership, many secret cases will come to light, especially since in the West there are critical voices about the tremendous corruption of Ukrainian authorities.
So far, Joe Biden's administration, just like his presidential denomination. Kamala Harris, they have no thought at the end of an anti-Russian brawl. Clearly, art is not foolish to provoke war, art is wise to extinguish it.
Following the strategical goal of neoconservatives of the American weakening and even fragmentary Russia, further presidents starting with Bill Clinton, treated the russian Russia with indulgence. The Russian army was considered besides weak to argue the inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO. The Cremel crews with pain swallowed NATO's expansion east in 1999 and 2004. However, by demonstrating force in the 2008 Georgian War and the desperate attack on Ukraine in 2022, they showed that stopping NATO was a historical necessity and a strategical goal of Russia. It is not only her state's right ("reason d’état"), it is her existence's right ("reason d’etre").
The Russians recognize, likewise to James Monroe's doctrine, to which the United States referred for 2 centuries in the Western Hemisphery, that they have the right to take care of their safety by controlling the immediate neighbourhood. On the another hand, the russian republics neighbouring Russia in most cases realize that they are exposed to a peculiarly dangerous "resistance" of hostile and repulsive forces. This can be seen clearly in the Caucasus or Central Asia, where local governments learn to balance between Russian and Chinese, Eurasian and Atlantic influences.
However, east Europe remains a strategically delicate area. It was in her direction that the top war confrontations from Napoleonic and Nazi times took place, it was an area of powerful interblock militarization during the period of the "cold war", and yet there is an inter-civilization boundary, as he diagnosed. Samuel Huntington in his “The Crash of Civilization”.
Against this background, it is easier to realize Russia's demands that Ukraine stay neutralized, demilitarized and denazimized. In the second case, it's about debranding. The Russians besides study on the territorial governance revision project, recalling – and rightly so – that the territorial division after the dissolution of the USSR was based on the "uti possidetis" rule (let it stay as you have it), which meant the adoption of artificial interethnic borders for interstate borders. It was widely known what a celebrated French investigator wrote in many books HéleneCarrere d’Encaussethat the immense Russian-speaking diaspora was beyond the borders of the fresh Russia. As part of her succession, she took care of this population, calling it compatriots (sootechestvenniki). It's unusual that no 1 in the West then protested against specified interpretation. As part of the Russian Mirus, the Russians referred to common roots, to the linguistic space of Rusophonia, to sources of Orthodox religion and community of fate, specified as fighting under common banners with external enemies.
As long as there was a doctrine in Ukraine Dmytra Pawnice (chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament's abroad affairs committee from 1990 to 1994) with an extra-block status, until it continued in a quiet transitional period. However, this doctrine was a manifestation of idealism and early state naivety. Due to the geopolitics of Ukraine and its resources, it could be expected that anti-Russian and pro-Western forces would be activated sooner or later, due to the fact that this was the logic of the interior political struggle. In addition, external forces have come to support further "overturns" ("Orange Revolution", "Euromaidan") against which regional separatists in the east of Ukraine have emerged.
Misgiving a Bear
The Russians then found that they were dealing with Western hypocrisy, and any effort to settle the conflict was treated instrumentally. Russia's tenacity in defending rebellious republics was considered to be "casus belli". The Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 so did not supply the basis for a permanent end to the fighting in the east of Ukraine.
Eventually, erstwhile diplomacy did not help, Russia reached openly for weapons. This is the crux of the misunderstanding that occurs in the mythology of Russian aggression. Western propagandists have clearly confused expansion vectors. It was not Russia that came “to NATO's door”, but vice versa, NATO began to approach its borders dangerously. Anyone who understands a small bit the logic of balancing forces must be aware of the large threat of Western military approach to its "soft underbelly", i.e. to the most strategically delicate side.
The disease, known as cognitive blindness along with rusophobic confusion, has unleashed specified a strong hatred for Russia and its inhabitants in many political, media and intellectual circles that it even reaches to the "pseudom of wisdom" of the historic, to free Western political decision-makers from responsibility. The public opinion in many countries was introduced, as in the past was done in relation to the Germans, that the Russians as a nation have a historically established gene of aggression and innate desire for conquest. Meanwhile, today's Western states – the United Kingdom, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, including tiny Belgium and the powerful United States – inherit the top harm they have done to non-European peoples and the infamy of their colonial conquests. The gene of imperialism, aggressiveness and conquest, as well as the extermination of indigenous people, lies like the forerunners in the past of the modern world, which causes, and erstwhile bizarre, the reawakened consciousness of exploitation, discrimination, and racism ("wokeism").
Therefore, it is unbeliefable that the only version of events, coined in the West, was besides adopted in academic circles, that they were imperial ambitions of Russia, alternatively than NATO's expansion into russian territories, are key to knowing the confrontations of these 2 geostrategic masses. The objectivisation of the cognitive process, that is to say, taking into account any of the another side's arguments, will take a long time, unless another president of America, who does not appear to have carried out a "reset", reviewing Western strategical assumptions.
By the way, it is worth noting that the methodological peculiarity of Russia's analysis is to disregard its authoritative doctrine and to search out the intentions of leaders and aggressive urges in the recesses of the "Russian soul", in demonic character and personality Vladimir Putin, in Russian imperial mysticism and missionaryism. Meanwhile, all authoritative statements by Western leaders are treated as “revealed truths” with which no 1 discusses or suspects that they are saturated with lies, hypocrisy and falsehood. Where does this ideological perception and aversion to the critical deconstruction of American imperialism come from? This question is addressed especially to Polish political scientists who made their cathedrals centres of anti-Russian propaganda and “comsomol” zeal for Uncle Sam.
Expectations towards Donald Trumpthat he will rapidly end the war in Ukraine, for now they have no basis in reality. The same Trump as President, in December 2017, made the decision to supply Ukraine with "defensive weapons". He was aware that the U.S. had been conducting training of the Ukrainian Army since 2014 and provided more and more weapons and organized joint military exercises of Ukraine with NATO forces. This resulted in the apparent effect of strengthening this state, which, compared to the situation of 2014, erstwhile Russia occupied Crimea, had in 2022 not only the will to fight but besides the means to defy the Russian attack in the first year of the war. Even if Trump, after a possible return to power, would cut himself off from Ukraine's funding, there is much evidence that its maintenance on his shoulders will be taken over by the European Union, and NATO states with the blessing of Washington will make a separate multi-billion-dollar war fund. War can so be prolonged, not extinguished.
A War Trap
The U.S.'s position towards the war in Ukraine requires urgent reassessment besides due to their strong commitment to supporting Israel in the mediate East conflict. In addition to rising outrage in the West over Israeli war crimes, the American "deep state" clearly reorients its hostility from Russia towards Iran. It is not excluded that Israeli aggression finds support for the US in the escalation of attacks on Iranian atomic objects, oil fields and oil refineries. Now there's a lot to play. erstwhile Russia has not been knocked out, an chance must be utilized to weaken the government in Tehran.
Looking at the logic of the wars in Ukraine and the mediate East, it can be concluded that there are no rational reasons. Historical experience teaches that common hostility between the opposing parties cannot be eliminated by violence. A methodological conciliation effort is needed and legal solutions are restored. Only the mass protest movement and education for peaceful ways of settling global disputes can bring the desired results.
However, in opposition to specified a view, it may be worth considering whether it is besides late. The planet has been at the brink of sinister confrontations due to gigantic global threats which the rulers are incapable to solve by peaceful means. Is war determinism threatening mankind?
Prof. Stanisław Bielen
Photo: Wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 43-44 (20-27.10.2024)
