While in the United States at least any of the oligarchical elites have understood that universalist claims to build a "liberal order" do not have a chance of being realized, Western Europe, especially those leading the European Union, is incapable to accept the failure of ideological projections.
A direct victim of the confrontational communicative about the division of the post-war planet between democracy and autocracy was Ukraine, which was tried in all way to bring to the western side, despite its far from democracy and respect for human rights. The perception of this country as the most crucial asset in the relation of forces between the West and Russia decided that after the Russian attack it began to be regarded as part of the east flank of the "collective West", although there were no grounds for it.
The military successes of the Ukrainian army during their defence against invasion have drawn Western states into a deep trap. First of all, Russia's ability to effectively maneuverate its army and accomplish at least any of the planned targets was misread. At the same time, disregarding Russian potential, lowering its assessment, and unleashing an aggressive propaganda offensive, created the basis for trivial calculations about the future of the conflict.
In the context of the degeneration of elites and corruption in the environment of the most crucial decision-makers Ukraine can so clearly see that taking work for this state in the name of a firm defence of liberal-democratic values has been based on false premises since the beginning of the conflict. The political and economical establishment of the West not only did not analyse Russia's vital interests in connection with the position of Ukraine, but what is worse, he naively accepted the presumption of weakness and the ability to overcome it.
The war in Ukraine has shown that it is impossible to rebuild the Russian empire from russian or Tsarical times, but it is all the more impossible to enter this country into Western structures with disregard for Russia's safety interests. In spite of all rational reasons, Ukraine's defence was made an absolute condition for the endurance of all Europe. The Russian hostility dogma combined with an detonation of irrational rusophobia has become the basis for the tragic doctrine of European security.
Ukrainian bluff and blackmail
Ukraine managed to build an alternate communicative about the inevitability of Russian attack on Europe, which must follow her eventual defeat. This moral and political blackmail was not only carried out by the peculiar services of the Western states, including peculiarly zealous and escalating British services, but besides by many analytical centres. Only any courageous authors in the West (Glenn Diesel, Richard Sakwa, Emmanuel Todd) indicate that Russia is indeed not an expansionary state, as it has neither the ability nor the ability to effectively invade NATO states.
What is the most striking consequence of the war in Ukraine is simply a profound revolution in the usage of technological innovations in arms and war operations after each party. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict became a force of intense usage of drones to detect in real time and guide artillery fire, which dramatically increased the effectiveness of the blast. Artillery and rocket launchers are liable for the vast majority of losses on both sides.
NATO Europeans are clearly falling behind erstwhile it comes to adapting the army to the modern conditions of the battlefield, and the drone manufacture is in its infancy. This must be explained by the extraordinary determination to rebuild the European arms industry. Only that many programs conceptually inactive lie in anachronic strategies dating back to planet War II. Western states identify with the fighting Ukraine as if they were themselves parties to the conflict. Although no of them declared war on Russia, they took a militant stance and hazard facing it on many levels. This was most full demonstrated in the application of severe sanctions in the financial, economical and commercial fields, which, in time, proved to be a double-edged weapon.
American Surprise
The biggest defeat of the West was the deficiency of imagination, and even supposing that the U.S. presidential elections in the fall of 2024 would blow the point of the crusade in defence of Ukraine. Russia's leader, who was collectively condemned as a dictator and war criminal, abruptly became a partner to talk and open America to cooperation. Trump's gathering with Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025 was a symbol of this “reverse” logic of war. As a result, the imagination of the peace plan began to draw, which clearly takes into account the advantages of the Russian side. The most shocking is the willingness of Americans to admit the aftermath of Russia's taking the east part with Donbas and giving up Ukraine's affiliation with the Atlantic alliance.
More broadly, the U.S. administration, based on the motives for maintaining its hegemonic position, is planning a fresh distribution of influences in spaces where the US and Russia, in competition with China, would cooperate in the exploitation of Arctic resources, reconstruction of energy supply lines, as well as space exploration and joint interplanetary expeditions. fresh geopolitical imperatives, linked to the division of influence between the US, China and Russia would block a "liberal restaurant" and prevent return to the position quo ante. The integration of EU Europe together with Britain into a fresh balancing strategy would require giving up absurd hostility to Russia and rejecting the logic of "tanks, drones and soldiers" to focus on technology and trade, more conducive to winning competition with China.
There is no uncertainty that keeping the Ukrainian state at war with Russia at the expense of European countries is simply a historical challenge. Given that Ukraine is not a associate of any alliance relation with the West, the aid declared and implemented by the Western States and their demonstration solidarity are unprecedented. However, this is not without harm to generous donors. In addition to direct costs, Europeans have cut off on their own request from Russian natural materials and energy resources, falling victim to severe self-limitation, expanding costs and dependence on the US.
European Roadless
In addition, the European Union has clearly lacked strategical control, losing real support in the power of the US. It so makes a spectacular shift of integration goals to building its own immense war machine. This bodes the possible of maintaining peace in Europe but, worse, of maintaining inclusive cohesion.. In front of our eyes, there are illusions of the peaceful function that the European Communities and the European Union were to play in building fresh standards of coexistence and coexistence.
Against the background of Ukraine's commitment, European states, convinced of the continued attractiveness of their constitutional patterns and values, were not only in ideological vacuums, but besides experiencing distance from crucial players. knowing Russia's interests and its support by many non-European powers, the best expression of which has been the BRICS+ group, means, in practice, that the Westerns are being counterbalanced by an increasingly strong coalition of Global South states.
In addition, more opposition to war and sympathy against Trump's peaceful efforts are emerging in the consciousness sphere. present it is not only Hungary and Slovakia that openly seconds American diplomacy. Italy, too, and quietly many another political forces in Germany, France, Poland or Bulgaria, are beginning to calculate that the geopolitical influences of the European Union can be maintained not so much by arms and support for war, but by returning to multilateralism and effective diplomacy. The crisis of European leadership is evident. It is devoid of a strategical imagination in which the European Union would regain its partnership and performance in its relations with the United States.
If, as a panacea for the crisis, the Union puts on accelerated federalization, it will only be a proverbial nail to the coffin. The European Commission's centralisation moves are already raising opposition from sovereigns in many EU countries. Yet, with the support of the American administration, a broad front can be created for refusal against the globalists and Brussels bureaucrats, which, alternatively of strengthening strategical autonomy towards America, will contribute to the collapse of this structure. How specified a situation would affect the destiny of Ukraine, it is even hard to imagine.
All akin scenarios on the degradation of Europe as a full are frightening for each associate State of the European Union. After its possible dissolution, no of them will be able to keep their own autonomy internationally. The withdrawal of America in turn would endanger to return to various animosities and particularities, and over time to quarrel and conflict, not only against Russia. The logic of specified absurd solutions would lead to America's further intervention in European affairs, as happened in the 2 planet wars of the 20th century. It is clear, therefore, that American presence in Europe is simply a warrant of maintaining continental stability, but besides of bringing reluctant partners and neighbours to order. The American control of the aspirations of any European states to hold atomic weapons besides seems to be unprecedented.
“Alternative” America
The U.S. is presently setting arbitrary directions for redevelopment of the global power strategy and is liable for repairing mistakes made by erstwhile US administrations and alliance governments. Donald Trump – whether he likes it or not – symbolizes the shocking author of part of the American establishment, which assumes a thorough revision of global goals and strategies. With his participation comes a departure from ideology, pathetic slogans and dogmatic assessments. This creates a distance from Trump and a retreat towards “alternative” America.
However, the "dualist" approach to the US state and its current presidential administration is simply a mistake. This is absurd for Polish government decision-makers to operate on a regular basis, proving the peculiar schizophrenicism, damaging both the legitimacy of the alliance with the US, their military commitments, and the renewal of transatlantic relations. You can't be both pro-American and anti-Trumpian. In a situation of crisis, it is not any imaginary or abstract United States, but circumstantial ruling teams in the United States can aid to save the remnants of civilization's resources that make up the identity of the West. The ability to diplomaticly fit in with them depends not only on the chance of survival, but besides on the ability to influence the logic of developments, even erstwhile it seems absurd.
Non-full-scale war
The war in Ukraine reminds us that conventional military activities affect atomic blackmail, and further crossing the alleged red lines shows the extensibility of the hazard of escalation, from limited to full-scale activities. Unlike the Russian name ‘special military operation’, which assumes the limited nature of the invasion, the concept of ‘full-scale war’ was rapidly introduced in the West to stimulate cognitive shock and trigger mass solidarity with the victim. possibly the “full-scale” nature was the first phase of the war erstwhile the Russian troops entered and attempted to occupy part of the state along with Kiev. However, the real war in Ukraine is operationally selective and spatially limited. Many hysterical assessments of this war require revision and recovery. For example, with respect to the threat of atomic weapons. Despite various enunciation and threats, there is no public evidence that exercises conducted during the war changed the Russian atomic threshold.
From today's perspective, it clearly exposed the deficiency of "war economy" in Western countries and the constant increase in production capacity, not just disposable purchases of equipment and weapons. Without an extended ammunition industry, the ability to produce and repair equipment and flexible and diversified purchasing systems, even rich countries rapidly run out of supplies. The analysis of the situation of the parties to the conflict vis-à-vis each another confirms that the hazard of failure is greater, the more the resource advantage and strategical depth of 1 participant, i.e. Russia, are underestimated.
At the same time, it was not for the first time that determination to defend their identity and belief in the sense of opposition could compensate the opponent for the advantage in material resources. These observations let us to look at the safety components after a fresh look at the safety components and to consider what is meant by the "total opposition of the state" to war threats. The power of the state is expressed not only in its military security. Safety must be taken into account in all possible dimensions, including wellness or food. For now, Polish decision-makers do not realize this, as demonstrated by exclusive military priorities, with large negligence in hospitalization or deficiency of protection of their own food and commission facilities. The assembly of escape backpacks or the printing of infantile guides does not solve real problems.
The Russian-Ukrainian War confirmed the fact that the first victim of hostile campaigns and attitudes became the fact and objectivity of information messages.. In analyses sympathetic to Ukraine, treating her as an "innocent victim of assault" excluded any cognitive sensitivity to the complex image of the conditions of this war. The Ukrainian side in the ongoing negotiations does not let a wider view of the sources of the conflict, calling them "biz". 1 can be certain that even after peace was made under US pressure, the Russians will search to prove that the western partners of Kiev did everything, at least since the overthrow of the president Viktor Yanukovych and Crimea classes in 2014 to make Ukraine a powerful anti-Russian bastion.
In appreciation of the extraordinary strength of the spirit and the determination of Ukrainian society, it is not impossible to forget the instrumentalization of this war by various interest groups, the tremendous social costs, the demolition of material and population, the tragic exodus of the population abroad, and, above all, the renaissance of the nationalism of the banner, justifying the identity of Ukraine with its militaristic aspirations and demands for designation as 1 of the “rewarders” among European countries. Ukraine's leadership aspirations may not only be a large surprise but besides a real threat.
For now, only a fewer observers are aware that the war will consequence in a morally broken, unstable and heriting state, eager for various compensations, regardless of the aid and generous support that has been received so far. During the war, various social pathologies developed in Ukraine, which will appear in full swing at the end of the fighting. Demobilization will open a “Pandora can”, covering the desire for retaliation and rematch, the emergence of organised crime, the emergence of arms trafficking, smuggling, diversion and sabotage. Many of these threats concern Poland, which has adopted the largest Ukrainian diaspora, but has not yet built due to the mindless Ukrainianphilia any doctrine of resilience.
Landscape after the Battle
In the intellectual dimension, the war in Ukraine has undermined for years the trust between Russia and Europe. She sparked waves of hostility and hatred between average people on both sides. Only after generational changes can their negative perception be reversed. Not only countries and their societies from the nearest neighbourhood, including Poland and Poles, but besides distant states, like Canada, have been greatly supported by Ukrainian diaspora. However, consciousness and historical memory, as well as knowing the truths of political realism in the global strategy of forces, disappeared from the position of Western and neighbouring elites. deficiency of knowledge, restraint and prudence meant, as he writes, Emmanuel Todd in the book “The Curses of the West”, “an unstoppable, yet absurd march towards war”.
Despite the immense differences in Ukrainian society, we are dealing with the awakening of a fresh national element. The ideological mobilization and heroization of the defence caused the “war of the people” to meet the expectations and dreams of Ukrainian nationalists. The greater the sacrifices made in pursuit of survival, the stronger the tendency to increase efforts and willingness to sacrifice. Therefore, regardless of the declared will of the rulers to participate in good religion negotiations, Ukrainian society will proceed in its opposition and argue possible territorial or political concessions, despite the slim chances of triumph on the battlefield. That is why the president of Ukraine is being referred to the thought of a referendum, which could put an end to any chance of reaching a peaceful compromise. Thus, the Ukrainians became hostages of a fresh phase of their ethnogenesis through their inflexibility.
Prof. Stanisław Bielen
Photo X (profile U. von der Leyen)
Think Poland, No. 9-10 (1-8.03.2026)
