Katarzyna Przyborska: Visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Poland – the first of this rank in six years – announces a fresh beginning in diplomatic relations. Meanwhile, the media coverage of it dominated the issue of war reparations and divisions, whether Scholz's message is simply a “fiche”. We will not escape this – what function did reparations play?
Maria Skin: I admit I didn't anticipate Donald Tusk's government to want to get to the reparation issue. Although he does it in a different kind than the Law and Justice government. This 1 blew the reparation issue to accomplish interior and ad hoc political objectives. However, the Tusk government wants to provoke the Germans to join in.
For example, the east Shield. Defence matters Poland will besides play during its Presidency in 2025. The shield, however, seems not to have been enthusiastic.
Tusk sends a message: erstwhile you attacked us militarily, now you can make us feel safe, separate from the dangers coming from the east, inspired by the Kremlin. specified setting of the case has a broader, more symbolic effect. This thought was raised earlier by Radosław Sikorski on the occasion of gathering Annalena Baerbock in Berlin earlier this year.
At the same time, it seems that Tusk wants to shut his critics' mouth. And it's a populist play.
Of course, 2 birds with 1 stone. Addressing the substance of reparation emphasizes the assertiveness of Tusk towards Germany, which shows that the accusations which Jarosław Kaczyński has cast in his direction for years are absurd. Tusk isn't a German agent, he didn't go to Berlin, he didn't abandon the reparation issue, he's tough on different ideas like Migration pact, criticizes Green Deal. Moreover, in the circles of German experts who analysed the results of the elections in Poland, it was known from the beginning that Tusk would not be a sheep, that this is simply a tough player who will stand by the interests of Poland, and besides the interests of his party, his government. It was certain that it would not be – contrary to what PiS said – an appetizer.
Tusk didn't go to Berlin. This is Chancellor Scholz, together with a group of ministers, who came to Warsaw. But Berlin could anticipate that after years of disastrous diplomatic relations, the fresh government would announce that it would now be different, that Berlin would cease to be listed as an enemy capital and Germany presented as a threat since the Teutonic Knights.
After being taken over by the coalition on October 15, Donald Tusk deliberately went not to Germany, but with his first visits he went to Brussels and Tallinn. This was a sign of readiness to repair relations with the European Union and to prioritise security, the request to build alliances against the threat posed by Russia. The decision not to go to Berlin was strategic, tactical and thought-out, precisely not to drive a populist, written campaign.
But isn't it inactive playing on the field set by the opponent? The Law and Justice will interpret everything any way they want.
Tusk is, in a sense, a hostage to these accusations of German affiliation, but in my opinion politically and diplomatically, it is very good that a larger neighbour, a large partner, comes to Warsaw, to a country that is straight on the border with Belarus, Russia and the country where the war is taking place.
This is simply a very good motion and I believe that there is another benefit from the arrival of specified a large German delegation to Warsaw.
What?
W Germany's interest in Poland is not great, and not only due to the fact that we had the governments of the Law and Justice, due to the fact that then this interest grew, at least in a more anecdotal sense. Germany is simply not curious in east Europe. And specified a visit is an chance to see how Poland has changed – from this mediocre neighbour, where according to jokes based on experiences you could find your stolen car, into a thriving and interesting country.
So not only Paris but Warsaw?
Yeah. Germany is mostly governed by politicians from West Germany. And these citizens of East Germany know more about Poland. They came here even before the 1989 transformation and for them Poland was a more liberal country than DDR, where you could breathe. As I performed in various debates in Saxony, people there responded very positively to Poland, due to the fact that they associate it well with the past or from the present, with regular business, visits across the border, even for the weekend or for shopping.
The cooperation programmes between Germany and France resulted from the decision to break with the tradition in which conflicts were constantly occurring. 1 of the consequences, for example, of Erasmus is cross-border marriages. The ties between France and Germany are tightening, defeating history. Could this be a clue for us?
There must have been a minute of decision. We remember the celebrated pictures of Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer, taken on the occasion of the signing of the Elysée Treaties, or holding hands of Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand in front of the monument in Verdun. It was both sides' effort to reconcile. If Polish-German relations had always reached specified a level of intimacy, warmth, sympathy, not only on the government level or diplomatic level, but besides on the social level, as with France, it would have been a large success. It seems to me that the time has come for Germany to treat Poland as an equal partner. I made specified a tiny project, specified a circular table for German experts dealing with Poland. We were just talking about what changing the government in Poland means. We have formulated 5 points on cooperation, renewal, intimacy. One, very important, was that for Polish-German relations the blueprint should be German-French relations, and the second revival of the Weimar Triangle.
What actually started at the initiative of Warsaw. Diplomatic offensive Polish Ministry of abroad Affairs, renewal of the old agreements, return to the global arena – this is most likely the strongest and best episode of the Polish government's fresh word of office. After years of being stuck in the margin, we're back, we have more influence. But will the broken diplomatic relations by the Law and Justice be easy to repair?
The Law and Justice came to power in 2015 and, from what I remember, the anti-German assault did not begin so immediately. 10 years earlier, Jacek Kurski invented Donald Tusk from Wehrmacht, but it was besides much for Lech Kaczyński and Kurski was excluded from working on his campaign. However, Lech Kaczyński is not with us, and the political culture of the PiS during the last 2 word has changed greatly. Only after the crash in Smolensk the PiS began to radicalize, polarize and intensify attacks on Germany.
In Germany, Angela Merkel and the CDU ruled.
So the sister Platform party, from which she learned quite a few her time, worked closely together. The Germans began to announcement these attacks. There was a memorable interview of Witold Waszczykowski for “Bilda” about the fact that Poland is not a place of vegetarian culture and cyclists, specified bizarre statements, which in Polish political discourse we can perfectly locate, while in Germany seemed completely absurd. Now a akin discourse proposes in Germany AfD. It was incomprehensible at the time.
Especially since Poland was a large example of successful transformation. Of course – from our shock position – not rather fair, but the country has developed enormously economically and democratically. Just compare it to Ukraine or Romania.
Or Bulgaria or Slovakia. Countries that are in the European Union, which are post-communist countries, but whose transformation has gone worse. The Germans were first positively amazed at what was going on here, and then they were amazed at the change – and they accepted specified a maneuver to wait out. Anti-German rhetoric took on an strength especially during the Second Law and Justice Rule.
Along with information on Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics.
She was multilevel in the sense that Germany became the scapegoat of this rhetoric as a country, as Berlin, then anti-Germanism besides took on the Brussels dimension erstwhile Ursula von der Leyen became head of the European Commission in 2019.
Although the MEPs of the Law and Justice have supported her candidacy.
But since 2020, there has been a crisis with the regulation of law. There were clippings of Minister Szyszka, then disregarding EU judgments on the systematic dismantling of the regulation of law by politicians of the Sovereign Poland, Turów mine, LGBT-free zones. There's been quite a few conflict.
It is interesting that the responsibility lay on the side of Sovereign Poland, with which Jarosław Kaczyński could not cope, he yet waved his hand even for money from KPO, and in the meantime social frustration tried to direct against Berlin, then besides Brussels and Kiev. At the end of the run came Manfred Weber.
The leader of the EPP, whom Mateusz Morawiecki called for debate. It was an exceptionally bad PiS will due to the fact that Weber's words were manipulated. He spoke about the fact that there is no place for opponents of democracy, and it was translated so that Germany was the enemy of Poland. In this context, the attack on PiS was an attack on Poland.
The Germans began to announcement this rhetoric, writing about it in the media. But, thankfully, it had no specified effect on bilateral relations. Barometer Poland-Germany, conducted by the Institute of Public Affairs and by the Adenauer Foundation and Deutsches Polen-Institute, who researched the moods and relations between Poles and Germans all year, showed that although the German sympathy for Poles fell, Poles' sympathy for the Germans persists. common aversion has increased somewhat – on both sides, but is marginal and definitely remains in the shadow of common affirmative emotions.
The anti-German message reached first of all hard-core PiS voters.
He was besides so severely hit that even any of the PiS supporters felt that this was already over-reacting and propaganda. Fortunately, since the signing of the Treaty of Good vicinity in 1991, a large work has been done for exchange and relations. People go to Germany to work, Germany comes here for holidays or shopping, there are many Polish-German marriages and these human relations proved to be a buffer towards propaganda.
The same was actual in relations with Ukrainians. Increased anti-Ukrainian propaganda, constant reminiscing Volhynia by the Polish government – it did not translate into aversion to Ukrainians who were already known, came to work, became part of families.
And this is the success of what is called a citizen Diplomacy, specified diplomacy on the most basic, interpersonal level. Although I know there have been attacks here, any prof. has been hit in a tram, etc.
Professor Jerzy Kochanowski was beaten in a tram for speaking German.
It was a shock. At the same time, although at diplomatic level relations were disastrous, this did not translate into economical relations. The east Commission of the German Economy, which brings together German companies active in east Europe and Central Asia, has data showing that trade and economical cooperation flourished during this winter, Poland and Germany even profited from the exchange.
Hitting those relationships would mean hitting voters' wallets.
Of course. In addition, there is simply a multum of small, medium, Polish companies that operate in Germany. This full thing, as it is called, Trockenbau, or trim, but besides import and export of food products, investments, industry. Destroying these relationships would be very risky.
And how did the Germans see this hypocrisy? On the 1 hand, business as usual, on the another hand continuous instruction, reminiscing, simple grumpiness and deficiency of culture.
The Polish side reported that this was a game. We're just politicians, and we have to. Or: we may not like you very much, but Poland is simply a partner of Germany anyway. It was hard. surely now there is much more authenticity, honesty, goodwill on both sides and a desire to overcome differences. It's not an argument and a mudslide, it's a hard subject with an open visor.
However, Germany never gave up its attempts to establish a relation with Poland. In 2021 the government changed in Germany – and this was a 180 degree change, due to the fact that after 4 word under the leadership of Christian democrats Germany chose a very progressive coalition: Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. Their coalition agreement was entitled “Target more progress. Alliance for Freedom, Justice and Sustainable Development”, a delegation came to Warsaw to get to know each other, introduce themselves.
Now the results of the European elections show that Poland and Germany have a lot in common. The largest group in the Europarliament, the EPP, has the most supporters in Germany and Poland. In addition, Emmanuel Macron was forced to deal with interior affairs.
This is an unexpected change – Germany's most reliable partner ceases to be charismatic Macron, and Donald Tusk grows up new. Although, of course, this government is inactive constitutiond, its advantage over the opposition is minimal, and Andrzej Duda's presidency and the fact that the execution is inactive partially in the hands of the Law and Justice, origin any decision-political paralysis.
In Poland, it is said that the reception of refugees from Syria was a large mistake by Angela Merkel. That's what nationalist sentiments have grown on.
There are cultural differences of course, there are besides crimes, and in Cologne, in fact, in 2016, a crowd of men molested women in fresh Year's Eve. The admission strategy is clogged, which means people are stuck on tolerable stays over the years, incapable to take up work, surviving in eternal uncertainty or on the margins, falling into organized crime – due to the fact that they have no prospects. There are people who, as children, have come from Afghanistan, for example, and who have learned German, started going to school, and erstwhile they turn 18, they get a warrant to leave the country. It's a tragedy. There are people who came in the 1980s who premeditatedly carry out criminal business: prostitution, drugs, extortion. There are besides links between organized crime and gangsta rap, as in the case of an artist named Bushido. Gangsta rap in Germany is partially Arabic, and there are besides creators of Turkish origin. And there are people who came from Syria as these refugees in 2015, graduated, stayed, acclimatized, taught German. And surely AfD uses migration in a populist way.
In Poland, people usage migration in a populist way.Populism has become the default way of conducting politics, racism has flourished on these activities, and German "multiculti" is something that children inactive fear.
Statistics a year ago showthat 29.7% of German society has migration experience. And due to the fact that people get together, they start families, more than 40% of German children under the age of 5 are of mixed origin. There are people with a past of migration, specified as me who came to Germany without German citizenship, but who are members of this society due to residence. Or with a background of migration, or first generation, second, third.
Then why the increase in support for AfD?
This is an increase on the 1 hand, due to the fact that AfD actually gained popularity from the 2021 election erstwhile she got 10 percent, but present oscillates on level between 15 and 20 percent per countryBy far more popular in the east. In east lands, specified as Thuringia, Saxony, it presently has up to 30%, it is the first force. But it is besides a turn to the right, due to the fact that AfD was created in 2013 as a professorial party, conservative, anti-European – then there was even no talk about migration. AfD gained popularity on the wave of the 2015–2016 migration crisis and then began to radicalize towards a populist alto-rightsman, attached to it by a more extremist environment, spawning after the National organization of Germany. AfD is presently under counterintelligence observation. Meanwhile, the AfD regional youth unit in Thuringia has already been classified as an extremist organization. The right wing of the AfD includes people who openly review the past of 20th-century Germany, about the crimes of the 3rd Reich say that it was nothing, just a bird tick on the beautiful past of the thousand-year-old Reich.
Recently, the regional president of the faction in the local parliament in Thuringia Björn Höcke was sued due to the fact that he utilized the SA slogans "Alles für Deutschland" – means "all for Germany" – standardizing the language of the 3rd Reich. The 1 on the AfD list in the European elections, Maximilian Krah, very popular on TikTok, appealed not to be ashamed of his ancestors, criticized the alleged pedagogy of shame. At the same time, it is precisely through this revision of the AfD in the Euro-Parliament that it is improbable that it will accept the utmost right from another countries, for example France. Le Pen powerfully rejected the anticipation of co-habitation within a single parliamentary group. AfD is besides not as anti-Semitic as anti-Arabic, anti-Muslim. Interestingly, it has 2 leaders: Tino Chrupalla is from east Germany, and Alice Weidel from the West, lives in Switzerland, has a long-standing partner of Lankian descent, together they rise 2 sons.
Isn't AfD homophobic?
It's transphobic. They repeat the same slogans with sex ideology, sex selection and spoiling children, which are heard in Poland. But they are popular with slogans about social safety and economical situation. Germany is disappointed with the underinvestment of the Bundeswehr, infrastructure, decline in purchasing power. Lower-level medical personnel, caring, earning comic money, and prices in Germany have late gone importantly up. On the 1 hand, inequality, on the another hand, even people who are successful, believe that things are bad in Germany and that Germany as a country is falling.
Germany looks at Polish populism and what?
They realize that this is simply a symptom of democratic erosion, democratic attitudes in society. This needs to be addressed. You can't ignore it. In this sense Germany could learn something from Poland, not only in terms of digitisation. The exchange of experience here would be truly valuable – how to deal with polarization? For present I think that the position of Polish-German relations is good, we are in a much better, brighter place than during the regulation of the Law and Justice.
**
Maria Skin – a investigator partnered at the Institute of European Policy and policy column in think tank Das Progressive Zentrum, both in Berlin. He deals with European politics and European political parties, democratisation, Polish-German relations. Sociologist, doctor of economical science.
