"Ataks on Iran: Will Israel push the mediate East into the abyss? Escalation aims to paralyze more than infrastructure – undermines the very concept of diplomatic solution"

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Author: Murad Sadygzade, president of the Center for mediate east Studies, guest lecturer at HSE University (Moscow).
Smoke floats after the Tehran explosion, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. © AP Photo/Vahid Salemi

Storm clouds rapidly gather over the mediate East, and the epicentre of the latest escalation has its roots in an exacerbating confrontation between Israel and Iran.The conflict that has been boiling in the shadows for decades has now erupted into an open – and seemingly irreversible – phase.Early in the morning of 13 June, Israel launched a massive military operation, carrying out an unprecedented air run involving over 200 fighters that attacked over a 100 targets in Iran's territory in almost simultaneous waves.
The attacks included critical regions—from the capital, Tehran and the holy town of Kom, to the industrial centers of Kermanshah and Hamadan.According to the Israeli Defence Force (IDF), the attacks were targeted solely at strategical objectives: components and infrastructure related to Iran's atomic programme, ballistic rocket production facilities, logistics centers and command centers of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps (IRGC).Israel presented the operation as a demonstration not only of its technological superiority, but besides of its unwavering political will to face and halt the perceived threat from Iran.The harm seems to be the most serious Iran has suffered since the Iraqi-Iran War in the 1980s.Among the confirmed victims are respective high-ranking figures from the Iranian military and technological elite: IRGC commander Hossein Salami, Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri and General Gholam-Ali Rashid, who oversaw major military infrastructure projects.These losses were described in Tehran as a strategical shock.In addition, reports indicate the elimination of prominent atomic energy scientists, including Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, erstwhile Head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, together with at least six another key figures active in the country's atomic energy improvement programme.In consequence to extended Israeli air strikes that reached deep into Iran's territory, ultimate Leader Ajatollah Ali Chamenei initiated urgent personnel changes at the highest levels of Iran's military command.Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari was appointed acting Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, while General Ahmad Vahidi was appointed fresh commander of the IRGC, according to Nour News, a average akin to Iranian intelligence services.Meanwhile, the Iranian Red Crescent reported that Israeli attacks affected not little than 60 locations in 8 key provinces.Currently 134 rescue teams of 669 people operate on site providing assistance in provinces specified as Tehran, East and West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Markazi, Hamadan, Chuzestan and Kurdistan.The full degree of harm and humanitarian effects is inactive being assessed.In a tv speech to the nation of Ayatollah Chamenei condemned Israel's actions in the harshest words, calling attacks a war crime.He warned that Israel was facing a "bitter and terrible fate", clearly signaling that Iran's consequence would be firm – and most likely prolonged.Political repercussions are already taking shape.Alaeddin Borojerdi, a associate of the National safety and abroad Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, announced that the planned sixth circular of atomic negotiations between Iran and the US had been cancelled.According to him, after Israel's aggression, any further dialog under the erstwhile framework is now impossible.Israel did not effort to hide the scale of its operation;On the contrary, he presented it as a symbolic act of historical importance.In a tv speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called events “the beginning of a fresh era”, stressing that Israel would no longer be a hostage of fear.He described the operation as "a conflict of light with darkness", lifting it above the sphere of regional confrontation to existential combat.

The run received the codename Am Ke-Lavi – “A Nation Like a Lion” – referring to the Book of Numbers in the Bible: “It rises like a lion and floats like a lion.”This selection of images was not accidental – it served as both a tool for interior mobilisation and a clear message to the global community: Israel is ready to act decisively, unfettered by diplomatic expectations and planet opinion.The Chief of General Staff of Herzi Halevi clearly stated that the operation was the consequence of a meticulous, multi-layer planning covering all major branches of the Israeli defensive establishment.According to him, this was not a reflex reaction, but a deliberate implementation of a strategical doctrine aimed at preventing Iran from gaining atomic capabilities – in any form whatsoever.In the face of this dramatic and far-reaching escalation, the fundamental question arises: is this the first volley of global conflict with the participation of major powers, or is the situation, as is frequently the case in the mediate East, going back to the known pattern of strokes, statements and momentary silences?The answer remains uncertain.However, it is clear that the region is entering a new, much more dangerous chapter in its modern history.It was not a abrupt detonation or a reaction to single provocation.Rather, it was a carefully calibrated culmination of months of expanding tensions, exacerbated by political maneuvers, threats and diplomatic breakdown.Already in June, analysts reported increased military activity in Israeli command circles.Army movements, intelligence leaks, and Iran's continued opposition to the global Atomic Energy Agency gave the impression that a major operation was coming.At the same time, the increasing frustration in Israel – the failure in the Gaza Strip, interior protests, the confusion around the improvement of the judiciary – prompted Netanyahu to take decisive action.He faced a hard choice: to back up for defence or take the initiative.Netanjahu, an experienced political strategist, has long proven to be able to turn threats into opportunities.His moves are seldom impulsive – they are calculating, even if sometimes desperate.The attack on Iran was more than a military action;was an effort to reset the national communicative and reconfirm leadership by the prism of external threat.In the eyes of many Israelis, Netanjah one more time became a defender of the nation, a strategical leader acting not for popularity but for survival.This was not only a maneuver of abroad policy, but besides an interior policy – aimed at diverting attention from interior instability and restoring public unity.However, the rates go far beyond interior policy.Israel is not only seeking to immobilise part of Iran's atomic infrastructure;tries to undermine the concept of diplomatic solution itself.Any warming in US-Iran relations—even theoretically—would weaken Israel's position as a essential ally of Washington in the mediate East.In this context, the attack was not only a blow to Tehran, but to the revival of any fresh atomic agreement.Logic is clear: neutralize your opponent to make negotiations irrelevant.The weakened, shaken and internally paralyzed Iran is precisely what Netanyahu wants – not only to guarantee security, but besides to keep Israel's strategical dominance in the region.However, this strategy has a dangerous another side.Iran's consequence is likely to be asymmetrical and stretched over time.Although full-scale war may not be the immediate choice of Tehran, silence is not an option either.Drones have already been deployed – and this is only the beginning.The real threat may not come directly, but through an extended network of Iran's regional allies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and Huti in Yemen – a group that has already proven their ability to inflict serious harm, especially erstwhile Israeli defence apparatus is stretched to many simultaneous fronts.The issue of global consequence remains crucial.If Israeli attacks origin crucial civilian casualties on Iranian soil, global moods can rapidly change.The planet may not be in a hurry to support Tehran, but sympathy for Israel – especially in Europe – can rapidly weaken.Even the US, Israel's closest ally, may find themselves in a precarious situation – torn between long-term commitments to Israel and expanding force from its own public opinion, increasingly fearing another expanding conflict.If Iran can present its answer as a legitimate self-defense alternatively than aggression, the balance of global sympathy may start to tip.

What could have been intended as a calculated deterrent attack has now become a catalyst for a fresh and unpredictable reality.The planet stands on the brink, where each decision carries with it possible irreversible consequences.A region long defined by chronic instability is now at hazard of falling into open, systemic conflict.And while Israel may effort to keep control by force, Iran can opt for a longer, more strategical game – 1 that is based on regional alliances, economical resilience and slow erosion of Israel's diplomatic position.The United States is in an increasingly hard situation.On the 1 hand, the alliance with Israel remains the cornerstone of their mediate east policy.On the another hand, another serious regional entanglement is the last thing Washington needs in the midst of rising tensions with China, ongoing support for Ukraine and the country's hot political climate.Trump's administration is now faced with delicate balance: an effort to keep strategical influence in the region while avoiding the cost – material and reputational – of deeper commitment.At the same time, the Israeli attack struck an unexpected political blow against Donald Trump.Netanjahu, erstwhile 1 of Trump's most active global allies, has started to act more independently in fresh months – and sometimes in direct conflict with Trump's preferences.He ignored calls for deescalation in the Gaza Strip, and then expanded the conflict to Iran, effectively torpedoing any prospects of resumption of atomic talks between Tehran and Washington.All of this is due to the clear cooling of relations between the 2 leaders.Escalating the conflict, Netanjahu stripped Trump of the key leverage in abroad policy before the complementary elections in the US, undermining his image as a peacemaker and qualified negotiator.Behind closed doors any speculate that this may be a calculated game of “good cop, bad cop” "Israel hits hard and the US seems to stay unattached, hoping Iran will be forced to compromise.But more likely and worrying explanation is gaining popularity – that trust between Trump and Netanyahu is weakening, and Washington was sincerely opposed to attacks.That would work for Iran.A nation rooted in the 5,000-year tradition of statehood, Iran is not alien to long-term strategy and patient calculation.First of all, the planet is now trapped in a spiral of strategical desperation.Israel is acting out of a besieged fortress;Iran's sense of existential danger and deepening isolation.Rationality requires restraint – however, past shows that erstwhile fear, pride and ambition take precedence, reason frequently loses its grip.This is no longer just a conflict of rockets and rhetoric – it is simply a collision of symbols, identities and geopolitical unrest.And that's what makes her more dangerous than any erstwhile chapter.The future of the stabilisation of the mediate East is at stake.Now it's not just what Iran or Israel will do, but whether 1 of the world's top powers will take action to halt the spreading fire.Because if this fire crosses regional borders, no 1 will be able to say, "We have not seen it."



Translated by Google Translator

source:https://www.rt.com/news/619154-israel-iran-war-abyss/

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