A fresh attack of Ukrainian self-propelled missiles on Russian airports, on which Russian strategical bombers were stationed, is simply a confirmation that a full-scale war conflict escalates.
Based on a recording of the Engels airport attack, defence Express estimated that the blast was caused by a weapon that moved at a velocity of about 220 m/s, giving 792 km/h. "This means that we are talking about an airplane with a jet engine that can fly at advanced velocity at low altitude", the Ukrainian portal estimates. The list of possible weapons that could have attacked Russian airports lists russian unmanned reconnaissance machines Tu 141 "Striz" ("Jerzyk") and Tu-143 "Rejs", converted into drones for impact tasks by adding GPS and modern targeting systems.
This was done by the Ukrainian arms manufacture inherited from the USSR, which I had the chance to know during 2 Polish-Ukrainian fora of cooperation between the Armed Industries, whom I was co-organiser. The attack on Russian airports means that it is possible to attack Ukraine's rocket forces on targets in Russia, including even Moscow.
The attacked airport in Riazana lies about 200 km southeast of Moscow. The Engels Air Base is about 800 km from the Ukrainian border, while the locations of both explosions are about 650 km away. So attacks on large cities in Russia are possible. The question will be put to Putin, given the increase in the influence of the war organization in Russia and the announcement of a crucial increase in Russia's military spending. I besides deal scientifically with the problems of mobilization and I can say that as far as the Russian arms manufacture is concerned, it has almost entirely been turned into war production and will be able to produce thousands of fresh weapons systems in cooperation with China, North Korea and Iran. How will Ukraine and NATO and the European Union respond to this? In addition, the United States' intention to increase the supply of state-of-the-art offensive weapons to Ukraine and Ukraine's desire to proceed the war to complete victory, regardless of the demolition and number of casualties.
Therefore, further escalation of the war in Ukraine is expected. The Secretary-General of NATO spoke about this, among others. Jens Stoltenbergwho openly admitted that there could be a war between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia. In an interview with Norwegian TV, NRK stated that he feared that “The war in Ukraine will get out of control and turn into a large war between NATO and RussiaIt’s okay. ” The NATO chief assured that he was convinced that the escalation of the conflict would be avoided due to the fact that the Alliance had increased its presence on the east flank. He added, “Putin knows that the Alliance works according to the “one for all and all for one” principle.” Stoltenberg stressed that " NATO's most crucial mission is to prevent a full-scale war in Europe and we work on it all day" (...) “If things go wrong, everything can go wrong,” Stoltenberg warned. "This terrible war in Ukraine is besides a war that can become a full-size war, transforming into a large war between NATO and Russia," he added." There is no uncertainty that a full war is possible – he said and stressed that a conflict should be avoided, which will "include more European countries and become a full-scale war in Europe".
As a investigator of the Institute of global Relations and Public Politicians of the University of Jan Kochanowski, I studied the processes of escalation of war conflicts and the logic of this escalation. I will give 1 notable example: in the early 1960s, Americans sent only about 100 advisors to South Vietnam and began to bomb the Vietcong guerrillas, and in the early 1970s more than 500,000 American soldiers fought in Vietnam and began to bomb with strategical bombers B-52 capital of North Vietnam Hanoi and Port Haifong.
One of the pessimistic scenarios considered by experts is the anticipation of utilizing tactical atomic weapons by Russian aggressors in the case of an effort by Ukrainians to reflect Crimea's own Crimea as a consequence of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. Here I would like to remind you that in the period after planet War II, there was 3 threats of atomic weapons. For the first time in the Korean War
As troops under the UN flag, headed by the US, continued to push in North Korea toward the border of the Yalu River, over which China extended, there was an engagement in the war of the forces of China and counterattack of nearly 300,000 alleged Chinese People's Volunteers, who pushed the UN's amazed troops into the defensive. In response, their chief American General MacArthur wanted to usage atomic weapons against China and repeatedly demanded Truman's U.S. president to authorize atomic attacks against Chinese cities. Truman refused to give consent to this, fearing that it would bring the russian Union into conflict and lead to planet War III. On April 11, 1951, he resigned the general. Justification for his insubordination.
For the second time in the Cuban rocket crisis. During this 13-day crisis, erstwhile the russian Union placed missiles and bombers in Cuba with atomic warheads capable of reaching US territory, there were 3 incidents that threatened to start an armed confrontation between the russian Union and the United States, and consequently between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Both military blocks then declared full combat readiness and began mobilization.
For the 3rd time – during the first phase of the war Yom Kipur between Israel and arabian countries headed by Egypt in October 1973.
In the first phase of the next mediate east War between Israel and arabian countries headed by Egypt in October 1973. Israel was amazed and his troops were on the defensive. Then the Prime Minister of Israel Golda Meir She seriously considered the usage of Israel’s atomic bombs against the Soviet-supported Egyptian military in Sinai. However, the US-run air bridge with arms supplies for Israeli troops reversed the situation on the front in favour of Israel and atomic weapons were yet not used.
During the Cuban planet War III rocket crisis, it was avoided due to the fact that the president of the United States John Kennedy he turned out to be a actual statesman, and he and the russian Prime Minister Khrushchev were behind their service on the fronts of planet War II (Kennedy on a countertorpedic attacked by the Japanese; they knew what war was and its terrible consequences) and did not give in to the pressures of generals to usage force. The United Nations Secretary General U Thant and prominent Pope John XXIII were effectively mediating between the 2 parties to the conflict. Their current successors are not this format... Hence my pessimism – planet War III and even the demolition of human civilization is increasingly possible...
Even though the parties of war are escalating, it is essential to do everything possible to prevent the war in Ukraine from getting out of control and escalating. That is why diplomacy at the highest level and mediation of the Pope and the heads of another Churches and the UN Secretary-General cannot be waived.. Just like it was during the Cuban crisis. due to the fact that at any point it may be besides late and the escalation process cannot be reversed.
Besides, we gotta remember that another species on Earth have died. Man is the first species on our globe to have the ability to self-destruct.
Yours sincerely
Prof. Dr. Paweł Soroka
Coordinator of the Polish Industrial Lobby
photo by USS Missouri during the Korean War (public domain)
Think Poland, No. 1-2 (1-8.01.2023)
