April Payrolls Debacle: Biggest Miss Since 2021 As Unemployment Rate Rises

Ahead of today's payments report, in our preview we said that while we knew we would get a slowdown, the question was How large it would be (and before that we besides asked if Yellen had left the watcher number to Japan head of their multiple interventions this week to prevent them from being tens of billions in intervention dry capital for nothing).

So the question is: did Yellen leak to the BOJ what the next NFP and CPI prints will be? https://t.co/ugDVXhDvOq

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2024

We got the answer moments ago erstwhile the BLS reported that in April the US added just 175K jobs, a nearly 50% drop from the upward revised 315K (was 303K), the value print since October 2023...

... and a two-sigma miss to estimates of 240K.

In fact, as shown below, this was the biggest miss since Dec 2021

As usual, prior data was net revised lower, with the change in full nonfarm payroll employment for February revised down by 34,000, from +270,000 to +236,000, and the change for March was revised up by 12,000, from +303,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, Employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.

What was behind the unexpected payrolls plunge? Blame government, which added just 8,000 jobs in April the least since Dec 2021, almost as if the government itself was goalseeking the final result.

Remarkky the consequence would have been even worse had it not been for a massive 363K addition from the birth death model.

It was’t just the Establishment survey: the household survey shown that in April, the US added just 25K jobs, a large drop from the 498K in March...

... which means that The already evidence divergence between the number of people employed and those who have jobs expanded by another 150K.

The weakness was pervasive, and while paying were a large miss, the unemption rate besides rose more than expected, from 3.8% to 3.9%, – the highest since January 2022 – versus estimates of an unchanged print.

The unemployment rate for Blacks (5.6 percent) decreased, offset an increase in the prior month. The jobless rates for adult women (3.5 percent), teenagers (11.7 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) shown small change over the month

Despite the increase in unemployment, the participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%

Wages besides released back with average hours rising 0.2% MoM, below the expected 0.3% increase and down from last month's 0.3% print. On an authoritative base, earlys rose 3.9%, down from 4.1% last period and below the 4.0% estimate.

Looking at the composition of the April occupation gain, the BLS notes that occupation gain created in wellness care, in
social assistance, and in transport and warehouse, offset by a large slowdown in government riding.

• Health care added 56,000 jobs in April, in line with the average monthly gain of 63,000 over the prior 12 months. In April, employment continued to increase in outpatient wellness care services (+33,000), hospitals (+14,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).
• Employment in social assistance increased by 31,000 in April, led by a gain in individual and household services (+23,000). Social assistance had added an average of 21,000 jobs per period over the prior 12 months.
• In April, transport and warehouse added 22,000 jobs, with gain in couriers and messengers (+8,000) and warehouse and retention (+8,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment in transport and warehouse had shown small net change.
• Employment in retail trade continued to trend up in April (+20,000). Over the prior 12 months, the manufacture had added an average of 7,000 jobs per month. In April, employment increased in general merchandise retailers (+10,000), building material and garden equipment and supply dealers (+7,000), and wellness and individual care retailers (+5,000). Electronics and application retailers lost 3,000 jobs.
• Construction employment changed small in April (+9,000), following an increase of 40,000 in March. Over the prior 12 months, construction had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month.
• Employment in government changed small in April (+8,000). Over the prior 12 months, government had added an average of 55,000 jobs per month. In April, local government employment was unchanged, following an increase of 51,000 in March.

And visually: